Optimal Composite Markers for Time‐Dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves with Censored Survival Data

Abstract. To increase the predictive abilities of several plasma biomarkers on the coronary artery disease (CAD)‐related vital statuses over time, our research interest mainly focuses on seeking combinations of these biomarkers with the highest time‐dependent receiver operating characteristic curves. An extended generalized linear model (EGLM) with time‐varying coefficients and an unknown bivariate link function is used to characterize the conditional distribution of time to CAD‐related death. Based on censored survival data, two non‐parametric procedures are proposed to estimate the optimal composite markers, linear predictors in the EGLM model. Estimation methods for the classification accuracies of the optimal composite markers are also proposed. In the article we establish theoretical results of the estimators and examine the corresponding finite‐sample properties through a series of simulations with different sample sizes, censoring rates and censoring mechanisms. Our optimization procedures and estimators are further shown to be useful through an application to a prospective cohort study of patients undergoing angiography.     

广东深化改革的重点与对策研究——广东改革开放30年的回顾与展望

广东改革开放30年经历了四个发展阶段，每一个阶段都体现出广东人坚持理论创新，以解放思想为先导，用足用活“特殊政策，灵活措施”，敢为天下先的精神。广东新一轮改革必须总体规划，分步实施，重点突破、整体推进，全面展开政治、经济、文化与社会领域的综合体制改革，并突破行政体制和社会管理体制改革之重点，不断完善社会主义市场经济体制，推动经济、社会步入科学发展的轨道。     

FRACTIONALIZATION,POLARIZATION, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: IDENTIFYING THE TRANSMISSION CHANNELS

In this article, we examine empirically both the direct and indirect links between ethnic fragmentation and economic growth. We find that both ethnic fractionalization and polarization are negatively associated with growth if considered in isolation; an effect that is though primarily attributed to their link to other growth‐related activities (i.e., investment, conflict, control of corruption, fertility). We study the corresponding transmission channels and calculate their relative importance in explaining a development curse based on ethnic diversity. For both measures of ethnic fragmentation, we find the corruption channel to be the most important one. (JEL C21, O11, Z13)     

基于层次分析法的无党派代表人士综合评价体系研究

建立科学的无党派代表人士综合评价体系是选拔、培养无党派代表人士的基础和关键。本文针对目前无党派代表人士评价工作中存在的系统性、客观性、科学性不足的问题,构建了无党派代表人士的评价指标体系,重点用层次分析法对评价指标进行了赋权,使对无党派代表人士的评价能够实现定量与定性相结合,控制主观性,增强客观性和科学性。     

Knowledge is a Dangerous Thing: Authority Relations, Ideological Conservatism, and Creativity in Confucian-Heritage Cultures

Throughout history, the generation, exercise, and dissemination of knowledge are fraught with dangers, the root causes of which are traceable to the definition of authority relations. The authors compare Greek myths and Chinese legends, setting the stage for a metarelational analysis of authority relations between teacher and students and between scholar‐teachers and political rulers in Confucian‐heritage cultures. These two relations are rooted in ideological conservatism. They are related in a higher‐order relation or metarelation: Political control and the definition of the teacher‐student relationship reinforce each other in consolidating authoritarian values. Thus, ideological conservatism shapes educational philosophy and socialization. It conflicts with present demands for creativity in the service of knowledge‐based economies. Hence, a major issue in cultural change to be addressed concerns the dilemma between maintaining authoritarian control and enhancing creativity.     

南宋江防体系的构成及职能

南宋立国江南,江防成为事关国家存亡的要务。南宋构建了以江防为根本,川陕荆襄为屏障,淮防为藩篱,海防为辅助的对金防御体系,建立了专门的江防水军和多层次的江防要塞体系。在对金防御和弹压水贼中,南宋的江防体系发挥了有效的作用,但其轻上游,重下游的缺陷导致蒙古从鄂州突破江防,加速了南宋的灭亡。     

中国特色的宪法实施监督模式研究

宪法实施监督制度是保证宪法正确实施并对违反宪法的行为进行监督的制度.它是维护宪法权威和尊严的一项重要制度,是现代民主政治的重要组成部分.综观当今世界各国宪法,依据宪法实施监督主体来划分,宪法实施监督的模式主要有五种类型:一是以英国为代表的议会型宪法监督模式;二是以美国为代表的普通法院型宪法实施监督模式;三是以德国为代表的宪法法院型宪法实施监督模式;四是以法国为代表的宪法委员会型宪法实施监督模式;五是以中国为代表的最高权力机关型宪法实施监督模式.五种宪法监督模式在世界范围内并存,从理论和实践上看,它们各有利弊.中国特色的宪法实施监督模式是根据人民主权原则,由全国人民代表大会及其常委会行使国家最高权力,根据分权制约监督原则,应当在全国人大下设立法院、国务院、最高法院、最高检察院,分别行使立法、行政、审判和检察权的宪法实施监督体制.这种模式的优点主要是:(1)从根本上克服了人大或其常委会本身既立法,又审查自己所立之法是否合宪的不足;(2)有利于人大从繁重的立法任务中解脱出来,把主要的精力用在最高决策权的行使和宪法实施监督上;(3)立法院制订出的法律案由全国人大或其常委会对其进行合宪性审查后,做出批准决定,由国家主席公布实施,这样既符合人民代表大会的民主集中制原则,又兼有"两院制"立法的优点;(4)可以解决目前宪法解释和法律解释一个主体造成的效力判断标准难问题;(5)能够保证国家的法制统一.     

LiTaO_3薄膜红外探测器热分析

利用有限元软件ANSYS对LiTaO3薄膜热释电红外探测器进行热分析;研究了敏感元绝热层的厚度与热导率以及基底的厚度及材料对热分析结果的影响;提出了优化方案,并给出优化前后仿真的对比结果。分析结果表明,探测器的热响应随绝热层的厚度增加而增加,随绝热层的热导率降低而增加。在硅、镍、蓝宝石三种基底材料中,使用蓝宝石的探测器的热响应效果最佳。在绝热层厚度为2μm的情况下,基底的厚度对探测器响应的影响可以忽略。实验测试结果证实了优化模型的有效性。     

加强对党内权力的监督制约 确保党内和谐

当前,由于对党内权力缺乏有效的监督制约,导致党内权力出现异化等现象,严重影响党内和谐。加强对党内权力的监督制约确保党内和谐,必须增强监督意识;提高纪检监督机构的相对独立性和监督质量,打造强化对党内权力监督制约的有效平台;加强制度建设,使对党内权力的监督制约走上制度化道路;充分发挥和保障党员的监督权利,夯实强化对党内权力监督制约的坚实根基;优化党内监督的环境,为党内和谐构建良好的外部条件。