Application of an adaptive design to a randomized phase II selection trial in gastric cancer: a report of the study design

Randomized phase II selection trials seek to provide unbiased comparisons for the selection of the most promising treatment arm for evaluation in a future phase III trial. In this paper, we present an application of an adaptive design to a randomized phase II selection trial comparing three experimental treatments with a control arm in patients with advanced gastric cancer. The trial design continuously monitors multiple patient outcomes to protect future patients from treatments with unacceptably high toxicity and/or unacceptably low efficacy. We use a Bayesian approach to monitor the trial and carry out simulations to investigate operating characteristics of the trial design. The simulation study also evaluates the sensitivity of the design to the prior distribution by considering two alternative priors.     

Impacts per unit weight in catch by two types of fisheries on a chub mackerel population

By using data on the age-specific annual fecundity and catches-at-age by each fishery in a chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) population in the Pacific Ocean off Japan during 1970 to 1992, we evaluated the long-term fluctuation in impacts of two types of fisheries on the chub mackerel population. The purse-seine fishery consistently had a larger impact on the population than did the dip-net fishery, mainly because the catch by the former was much larger than that by the latter. To evaluate impact per unit weight in catch, we calculated the average reproductive value per unit weight over individuals caught by each fishery as an indicator of efficient use of bioresource. Because the proportion of immature fish caught by the purse-seine fishery was usually larger than that by the dip-net fishery, the impact per unit weight in catch by the purse-seine fishery was not always less than that by the dip-net fishery.     

Assessing the prediction accuracy of cure in the Cox proportional hazards cure model: an application to breast cancer data

A cure rate model is a survival model incorporating the cure rate with the assumption that the population contains both uncured and cured individuals. It is a powerful statistical tool for prognostic studies, especially in cancer. The cure rate is important for making treatment decisions in clinical practice. The proportional hazards (PH) cure model can predict the cure rate for each patient. This contains a logistic regression component for the cure rate and a Cox regression component to estimate the hazard for uncured patients. A measure for quantifying the predictive accuracy of the cure rate estimated by the Cox PH cure model is required, as there has been a lack of previous research in this area. We used the Cox PH cure model for the breast cancer data; however, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) could not be estimated because many patients were censored. In this study, we used imputation‐based AUCs to assess the predictive accuracy of the cure rate from the PH cure model. We examined the precision of these AUCs using simulation studies. The results demonstrated that the imputation‐based AUCs were estimable and their biases were negligibly small in many cases, although ordinary AUC could not be estimated. Additionally, we introduced the bias‐correction method of imputation‐based AUCs and found that the bias‐corrected estimate successfully compensated the overestimation in the simulation studies. We also illustrated the estimation of the imputation‐based AUCs using breast cancer data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Immediate Impact of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident on Local Property Values

The Fukushima Daiichi accident released huge amounts of radioactive material over a wide area. We can appreciate the geographical extent of radioactive contamination from the information published online by the Japanese government. Historically, this is an unprecedented situation, which allows “natural experimentation” to estimate the causal effects of radioactive contamination on our society. This study focused on property value losses caused by the accident and analyzed changes in land appraisals around the Fukushima Daiichi plant from July 2010 to July 2011 within the framework of hedonic approach. Thus, we estimated the short‐run impact of the contamination or the change in marginal value of proximity to the plant. The results suggest that the appraisals significantly and monotonically depreciated with increasing contamination levels. However, there was no evidence to suggest changes in the marginal value of proximity to the plant. A comparison between the appraisals and transaction prices indicates that this result could be interpreted as an underestimate of actual property value losses.     

THE GENERALIZED ALCHIAN–ALLEN THEOREM: A SLUTSKY EQUATION FOR RELATIVE DEMAND

We generalize the Alchian–Allen theorem so as to account for income and endowment effects and provide two versions of a Generalized Alchian–Allen theorem: one for a unit cost component and one for a proportional cost component. Both versions provide a decomposition of an uncompensated change in the demand ratio of two goods into a substitution effect and an income‐endowment effect—and may thus be regarded as extensions of the familiar Slutsky equation for relative demand. Finally, we apply our results to the choice of real estates and to parental time allocation decisions, the latter providing implications for child care policies. (JEL D11, H21, J22, R21)     

Impact factors of purse seine net and dip net fisheries on a chub mackerel population

There are two major kinds of fisheries for the chub mackerel in Japan. The purse seine net fishery exploits young and adult fish during the foraging season, while the dip net fishery exploits fish before and during the spawning season. To compare the damage to the chub mackerel stock caused by purse seine net and dip net fisheries, we introduced impact factors of the two kinds of fisheries on the two kinds of fisheries and estimated number of eggs spawned in 1982. We defined the impact factor as the ratio of the average reproductive value of individuals caught by each fishery to the reproductive value at maturity. The number of individuals caught by the purse seine net fishery was 66 times larger than the number caught by the dip net fishery, while the impact factor of the former was 84% of that of the latter. Thus, the total damage caused by the purse seine net fishery was much higher than the damage caused by the dip net fishery. We can evaluate the damage caused by mortality factors on endangered species using this method.     

Nuclear Power‐Related Facilities and Neighboring Land Price: A Case Study on the Mutsu‐Ogawara Region,Japan

From the perspective of risk, nuclear‐power‐related facilities (NPRFs) are often regarded as locally undesirable land use. However, construction of NPRFs contributes to social infrastructural improvement and job creation in the host communities. This raises a question: How large are these positive and negative effects? To approach this question from an economic viewpoint, we estimated the hedonic land price function for the Mutsu‐Ogawara region of Japan from 1976 to 2004 and analyzed year‐by‐year fluctuations in land prices around the NPRFs located there. Land prices increased gradually in the neighborhood of the nuclear fuel cycle facilities (NFCFs) in Rokkasho Village, except for some falling (i) from 1982 to 1983 (the first official announcement of the project of construction came in 1983), (ii) from 1987 to 1988 (in 1988, the construction began and opposition movements against the project reached their peak), and (iii) from 1998 to 1999 (the pilot carry‐in of spent fuels into the reprocessing plant began in 1998). Land prices around the Higashidori Nuclear Power Plant decreased during the period 1981–1982, when the Tohoku Electric Power Corp. and Tokyo Electric Power Corp. announced their joint construction plan. On the other hand, we obtained some results, even though not significant, indicating that land prices around Ohminato and Sekinehama harbors changed with the arrival and departure of the nuclear ship Mutsu, which suffered a radiation leak in 1974.     

A New Approximation Algorithm for the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem on a Tree

This paper presents a new approximation algorithm for a vehicle routing problem on a tree-shaped network with a single depot. Customers are located on vertices of the tree, and each customer has a positive demand. Demands of customers are served by a fleet of identical vehicles with limited capacity. It is assumed that the demand of a customer is splittable, i.e., it can be served by more than one vehicle. The problem we are concerned with in this paper asks to find a set of tours of the vehicles with minimum total lengths. Each tour begins at the depot, visits a subset of the customers and returns to the depot without violating the capacity constraint. We propose a 1.35078-approximation algorithm for the problem (exactly, ), which is an improvement over the existing 1.5-approximation.     

Portfolio Inertia and Epsilon-Contaminations

This article analyzes investors’ portfolio selection problems in a two-period dynamic model of Knightian uncertainty. We account for the existence of portfolio inertia in this two-period framework. Furthermore, by incorporating investors’ updating behavior, we analyze how observing new information in the first period will affect investors’ behavior. By this analysis, we show that observing new information in the first period will expand portfolio inertia in the second period compared with the case in which observing new information has not been gained in the first period if the degree of Knightian uncertainty is sufficiently large.     

The Impact of Ovarian Cancer on Life Expectancy in Japan

The purpose of this study was to determine how life expectancy is modified by ovarian cancer from 1950-2000. The contributions of ovarian cancer to life expectancy were estimated. The age characteristics of ovarian cancer were detected using the Gompertz relational mortality model. The patterns between years of potential life lost (YPLL) and mortality were obtained by fitting a linear regression equation to the natural logarithm of their ratios. YPLLs are substantially higher in Ireland than in Japan. However, the rates of change were much higher in Japan than in Ireland. YPLLs changed from 0.02 year in 1950 to 0.12 year in 2000. In Japan, there was a sixfold increase in the proportion of YPLLs for death from ovarian cancer relative to those for death from gynaecological cancers during the last half century. The impact of ovarian cancer on life expectancy clearly increased and the age-specific mortality tend to ageing.