A new method for describing predator-prey relations in discontinous environments

Summary I propose a new method for anlysing predatorprey interactive systems in discontinuous environments. The basic index used here is a generalized version ofLloyd's (1967) “interspecies mean crowding”, which is defined as the number of individuals of one species existing in a given patch per that of the other species in either the same or different patches at either the same or different times. Four indices are derived from different combinations of the numbers of the prey and the predator in habitat patches. Then, the correlation coefficients between the numbers of individuals in patches in both different locations and times are derived by modifying the above new indices. Using this technique, dynamical changes of the joint distributions of the numbers of predators and prey which reflect variation in local conditions, can readily be described. As an example, this method was applied to an analysis of the outcomes of a multi-patch version of theLotka-Volterra model of predator-prey interactions.     

Statistical Analysis of Marginal Count Failure Data

Manufacturers want to assess the quality andreliability of their products. Specifically, they want to knowthe exact number of failures from the sales transacted duringa particular month. Information available today is sometimesincomplete as many companies analyze their failure data simplycomparing sales for a total month from a particular departmentwith the total number of claims registered for that given month.This information—called marginal count data—is, thus,incomplete as it does not give the exact number of failures ofthe specific products that were sold in a particular month. Inthis paper we discuss nonparametric estimation of the mean numbersof failures for repairable products and the failure probabilitiesfor nonrepairable products. We present a nonhomogeneous Poissonprocess model for repairable products and a multinomial modeland its Poisson approximation for nonrepairable products. A numericalexample is given and a simulation is carried out to evaluatethe proposed methods of estimating failure probabilities undera number of possible situations.     

Application of Human Reliability Analysis to Nursing Errors in Hospitals

Adverse events in hospitals, such as in surgery, anesthesia, radiology, intensive care, internal medicine, and pharmacy, are of worldwide concern and it is important, therefore, to learn from such incidents. There are currently no appropriate tools based on state-of-the art models available for the analysis of large bodies of medical incident reports. In this study, a new model was developed to facilitate medical error analysis in combination with quantitative risk assessment. This model enables detection of the organizational factors that underlie medical errors, and the expedition of decision making in terms of necessary action. Furthermore, it determines medical tasks as module practices and uses a unique coding system to describe incidents. This coding system has seven vectors for error classification: patient category, working shift, module practice, linkage chain (error type, direct threat, and indirect threat), medication, severity, and potential hazard. Such mathematical formulation permitted us to derive two parameters: error rates for module practices and weights for the aforementioned seven elements. The error rate of each module practice was calculated by dividing the annual number of incident reports of each module practice by the annual number of the corresponding module practice. The weight of a given element was calculated by the summation of incident report error rates for an element of interest. This model was applied specifically to nursing practices in six hospitals over a year; 5,339 incident reports with a total of 63,294,144 module practices conducted were analyzed. Quality assurance (QA) of our model was introduced by checking the records of quantities of practices and reproducibility of analysis of medical incident reports. For both items, QA guaranteed legitimacy of our model. Error rates for all module practices were approximately of the order 10(-4) in all hospitals. Three major organizational factors were found to underlie medical errors: "violation of rules" with a weight of 826 x 10(-4), "failure of labor management" with a weight of 661 x 10(-4), and "defects in the standardization of nursing practices" with a weight of 495 x 10(-4).     

Ecological studies on a dragonfly,Nannophya pygmaea ramber (Odonata: Libellulidae) I. seasonal changes of adult population and its distribution in a habitat

Summary Adult population of a dragonflyNannophya pygmaea Ramber inhabited in a damp ground was investigated with mark-and-recapture method in 1975. The following results about the seasonal changes of the population size and distribution in the habitat were obtained. Adults emerged from late May to mid August. The number of the adults was most abundant in early June, but that of matured males in early July. From the recapture data, the estimate of daily survival rate was 0.82, and the length of immature stage in males was estimated as 5 days or so. Total number of post-teneral adults emerged in the habitat was estimated as about 9,000. The mean crowding-mean density regression method was applied for the analysis of the distribution pattern of the adults. Matured males showed a spaced-out distribution, while females and immatured males distributed themselves rather aggregatively. Such a distribution pattern of the matured male would be attributed to their territorial behaviour. The territorial behaviour was considered to force the matured males to extend the distribution area in July when they were most abundant. From the above-mentioned results and some observations, the meaning of the territoriality in this species was discussed.     

Systems analysis of an acarine predator-prey system II: Interactions in discontinuous environment

Summary An acarine predator-prey system in a circular stepping-stone environment was described with a simulation model to elucidate the factors responsible for persistence of the system. The main assumptions in this model are: (1) The prey are inevitably eliminated in patches in which predators exist. (2) The density of prey declines and becomes extinct by plant defoliation due to feeding by prey. In this regard this model is different from the models which mimickedHuffaker's (1958) experiments and assumed stable plant-prey relations. Analyses showed that the critical factor in persistence of the predator-prey system was the plant-prey relations, at any combination of other parameters involved in the model. The predator-prey system did not persist long under the unstable relationship of prey and plant. Otherwise the system persisted longer especially when I used a larger number of patches, a larger amount of plant in each patch, and long-distance-migrations of the prey. In particular, frequent emigration of the prey regardless of plant conditions was most effective.     

A Monte Carlo comparison of Jarque–Bera type tests and Henze–Zirkler test of multivariate normality

In the paper, tests for multivariate normality (MVN) of Jarque-Bera type, based on skewness and kurtosis, have been considered. Tests proposed by Mardia and Srivastava, and the combined tests based on skewness and kurtosis defined by Jarque and Bera have been taken into account. In the Monte Carlo simulations, for each combination of p = 2, 3, 4, 5 number of traits and n = 10(5)50(10)100 sample sizes 10,000 runs have been done to calculate empirical Type I errors of tests under consideration, and empirical power against different alternative distributions. Simulation results have been compared to the Henze–Zirkler’s test. It should be stressed that no test yet proposed is uniformly better than all the others in every combination of conditions examined.     

Effects of Customized Balance Exercises on Older Women Whose Balance Ability Has Deteriorated With Age

Falls represent a major public health problem for older adults, and loss of balance (LOS) abilities is one of the primary causes of falls. Previous studies have shown that balance training is effective in improving physical function and decreasing risk of falls. However, little attention has been given specifically to balance training in older adults with very poor balance. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of a 12-week customized balance exercise program on LOS for community-dwelling older women with poor balance ability. Twenty-four older women with poor balance (composite maximum excursion [MXEcomp] score of less than 70% based on Limits of Stability) were divided into an exercise group and control group. After 12 weeks of balance exercises, mean MXEcomp improved (p < .05) from 58.6% to 79.0% in the exercise group. EPEcomp (composite endpoint excursion), RTcomp (composite reaction time), SVcomp3 (composite sway velocity on thick foam with the eyes open), UG (up and go) also improved, but the functional reach and other static balance indexes did not change. These results indicated that balance training allows older adults with poor balance to improve dynamic balance ability and potentially reduce risk for falls.     

On Parametric Bootstrapping and Bayesian Prediction

Abstract.  We investigate bootstrapping and Bayesian methods for prediction. The observations and the variable being predicted are distributed according to different distributions. Many important problems can be formulated in this setting. This type of prediction problem appears when we deal with a Poisson process. Regression problems can also be formulated in this setting. First, we show that bootstrap predictive distributions are equivalent to Bayesian predictive distributions in the second-order expansion when some conditions are satisfied. Next, the performance of predictive distributions is compared with that of a plug-in distribution with an estimator. The accuracy of prediction is evaluated by using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. Finally, we give some examples.     

Records of rat control campaigns in a food market with the largest seafood trading volume worldwide

Urban Ecosystems - Brown rats (Rattus norvegicus) and roof rats (Rattus rattus) are among the most common mammals worldwide. Little is known about the effects of season on rat population size,...