Efficacy Foundations for Risk Communication: How People Think About Reducing the Risks of Climate Change

Believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self‐efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts, according to current risk communication theory. Although the public recognizes the dangers of climate change, and is deluged with lists of possible mitigative actions, little is known about public efficacy beliefs in the context of climate change. Prior efficacy studies rely on conflicting constructs and measures of efficacy, and links between efficacy and risk management actions are muddled. As a result, much remains to learn about how laypersons think about the ease and effectiveness of potential mitigative actions. To bring clarity and inform risk communication and management efforts, we investigate how people think about efficacy in the context of climate change risk management by analyzing unprompted and prompted beliefs from two national surveys (N = 405, N = 1,820). In general, respondents distinguish little between effective and ineffective climate strategies. While many respondents appreciate that reducing fossil fuel use is an effective risk mitigation strategy, overall assessments reflect persistent misconceptions about climate change causes, and uncertainties about the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Our findings suggest targeting climate change risk communication and management strategies to (1) address gaps in people's existing mental models of climate action, (2) leverage existing public understanding of both potentially effective mitigation strategies and the collective action dilemma at the heart of climate change action, and (3) take into account ideologically driven reactions to behavior change and government action framed as climate action.     

Fast and approximate exhaustive variable selection for generalised linear models with APES

We present APproximated Exhaustive Search (APES), which enables fast and approximated exhaustive variable selection in Generalised Linear Models (GLMs). While exhaustive variable selection remains as the gold standard in many model selection contexts, traditional exhaustive variable selection suffers from computational feasibility issues. More precisely, there is often a high cost associated with computing maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for all subsets of GLMs. Efficient algorithms for exhaustive searches exist for linear models, most notably the leaps‐and‐bound algorithm and, more recently, the mixed integer optimisation (MIO) algorithm. The APES method learns from observational weights in a generalised linear regression super‐model and reformulates the GLM problem as a linear regression problem. In this way, APES can approximate a true exhaustive search in the original GLM space. Where exhaustive variable selection is not computationally feasible, we propose a best‐subset search, which also closely approximates a true exhaustive search. APES is made available in both as a standalone R package as well as part of the already existing mplot package.     

Efficacy,Action, and Support for Reducing Climate Change Risks

A growing body of research demonstrates that believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self‐efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts. Despite this potentially critical role of efficacy beliefs, measures and their use vary wildly in climate change risk perception and communication research, making it hard to compare and learn from efficacy studies. To address this problem and advance our understanding of efficacy beliefs, this article makes three contributions. First, we present a theoretically motivated approach to measuring climate change mitigation efficacy, in light of diverse proposed, perceived, and previously researched strategies. Second, we test this in two national survey samples (Amazon's Mechanical Turk N = 405, GfK Knowledge Panel N = 1,820), demonstrating largely coherent beliefs by level of action and discrimination between types of efficacy. Four additive efficacy scales emerge: personal self‐efficacy, personal response efficacy, government and collective self‐efficacy, and government and collective response efficacy. Third, we employ the resulting efficacy scales in mediation models to test how well efficacy beliefs predict climate change policy support, controlling for specific knowledge, risk perceptions, and ideology, and allowing for mediation by concern. Concern fully mediates the relatively strong effects of perceived risk on policy support, but only partly mediates efficacy beliefs. Stronger government and collective response efficacy beliefs and personal self‐efficacy beliefs are both directly and indirectly associated with greater support for reducing the risks of climate change, even after controlling for ideology and causal beliefs about climate change.     

Product partition latent variable model for multiple change-point detection in multivariate data

The product partition model (PPM) is a well-established efficient statistical method for detecting multiple change points in time-evolving univariate data. In this article, we refine the PPM for the purpose of detecting multiple change points in correlated multivariate time-evolving data. Our model detects distributional changes in both the mean and covariance structures of multivariate Gaussian data by exploiting a smaller dimensional representation of correlated multiple time series. The utility of the proposed method is demonstrated through experiments on simulated and real datasets.     

The restructuring of career paths in large service sector organizations:'delayering', upskilling and polarisation1

Drawing on detailed case studies of four large service sector organizations this paper finds little evidence of training provision that links skills development with incremental career progression. Past policies of ‘delayering’ have opened up a ‘gap’ in the job ladder and this has both increased the organizational costs of formal training and reduced the likelihood of informal on‐the‐job training being seen as the basis for promotion to the next level. Managers are thus faced with the challenge of how to establish a new set of premises upon which to strengthen the workforce's loyalty and commitment to the organization, in the context of problems of high staff turnover and low job satisfaction. What we find is a greater emphasis on certificated training provision. However, in the absence of a transparent career path employers rely on more intensive techniques of appraisal and selection of workers for a ‘winner‐takes‐all’ career path. Given the importance of skills acquisition as an important building block of the ‘learning society’, our findings suggest that policymakers in Britain cannot rely solely upon the employer to bridge the skill gap evident in large service sector organizations.     

Managing cross‐border cooperation between voluntary organizations in Ireland

The voluntary nonprofit sector in Ireland has grown significantly in recent years. A related trend has been the growth of cross‐border (in effect, transnational) cooperation between voluntary organizations based in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. However, this development has posed a set of management issues in terms of structure, forms of governance and decision making, day‐to‐day project management, and sustainability. Cross‐border work has also meant that voluntary bodies confront a distinctive set of barriers in relation to political and ethnic conflict, social and cultural attitudes, and practical delivery. Strengthening of cooperation across borders will require greater planning, mainstream funding, focused management, diversification of services, and realistic expectations.     

School governing bodies: Reshaping education in their own image?

Recent educational reforms in England have given considerable responsibilities for the overall administration of schools to governing bodies largely comprised of lay people. The paper explores the knowledge of education possessed by lay governors. Issues considered include: the systematicity of that knowledge; its possible sources, and how gender, ethnicity and social class influence the knowledge held and used by governors. Also examined are the question of whether governors are always knowledgeable actors within the context of education and the implications of this for schools and democratic participation in their governance. Data is derived from a four year qualitative multi-site case study of ten school governing bodies in two English local education authorities undertaken by the authors between 1988 and 1992.     

Creating offshore-ready it professionals: A global perspective and strong collaborative skills are needed

Outsourcing of IT functions has become a widespread corporate practice, which has naturally led to concerns among IT works about how this affects their jobs. The issue is complex, and many companies are bringing their IT functions back inhouse. In light of this complexity, what skills do IT workers need to be com-petitive? We address this question first by reviewing the literature and then by examining two corporate case studies that have dealt with outsourcing issues. Based on this view of outsourcing, we discuss the skills that can provide a com-petitive advantage in the current environment.