A global count of the extreme poor in 2012: data issues,methodology and initial results

The 2014 release of a new set of purchasing power parity (PPP) conversion factors (PPPs) for 2011 has prompted a revision of the World Bank’s international poverty line. In revising the line, we have sought to minimize changes to the real purchasing power of the earlier $1.25 line (in 2005 PPPs), so as to preserve the integrity of the goalposts for international targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the World Bank’s twin goals – which were set with respect to that line. In particular, the new line was obtained by inflating the same fifteen national poverty lines – originally used by Ravallion et al. (World Bank Econ. Rev. 23(2): 163–184 2009) to construct the $1.25 line – to 2011 prices in local currency units, and then converting them to US dollars using 2011 PPP conversion factors. With a small approximation, this procedure yields a new international poverty line of $1.90 per person per day. In combination with other changes described in the paper, this revision leads to relatively small changes in global poverty incidence for 2011: from 14.5 % using the old method to 14.1 % using the new method. In 2012, the new reference year for the global count, we find 12.7 % of the world’s population, or 897 million people, are living in extreme poverty. There are changes in the regional composition of poverty, but they are also relatively small. This paper documents methodological decisions taken in the process of updating both the poverty line and the consumption and income distributions at the country level, including issues of inter-temporal and spatial price adjustments. It also describes various caveats and limitations of the approach taken.     

A multiattribute decision time theory

In this study, we analyze choice in the presence of some conflict that affects the decision time (response time), a subject that has been documented in the literature. We axiomatize a multiattribute decision time (MDT) representation, which is a dynamic extension of the classic multiattribute expected utility theory that allows potentially incomplete preferences. Under this framework, one alternative is preferred to another in a certain period if and only if the weighted sum of the attribute-dependent expected utility induced by the former alternative is larger than that induced by the latter for all attribute weights in a closed and convex set. MDT uniquely determines the decision time as the earliest period at which the ranking between alternatives becomes decisive. The comparative statics result indicates that the decision time provides useful information to locate indifference curves in a specific setting. MDT also explains various empirical findings in economics and other relevant fields.     

A Single Garbage Can Model and the Degree of Anarchy in Japanese Firms

This paper refreshes an empirical examination ofthe garbage can model, particularly in a sample drawnfrom Japanese firms. The garbage can model oforganizational decision making was originally developed by Cohen, March, and Olsen (1972) to describeorganized anarchy. This paper incorporates twomethodologies in an attempt to both validate and extendthe garbage can model: Simulation is first used togenerate a research hypothesis, then several surveys areconducted to test that hypothesis and to empiricallydevelop an ex-post model of decision ambiguity, flight,and anarchy. The data support our hypothesis and we find out new conditions of ambiguity:(i) fluid participation, (ii) divorce of solution fromdiscussion, and (iii) job performance rather thansubjective assessments, which are clearly related to the simulation assumption of our single garbagecan model. By using our new conditions of ambiguity, wedevelop a measure of degree of anarchy, and theregression analysis indicates a linear relationship between the flight ratio and the degree ofanarchy.     

孙中山与德国——兼论"中德苏联盟"的构想

1917年参战纠纷发生以后,孙中山就一直坚持接近德国的政策,这种政策是出于战略的考虑,因为孙中山希望得到德国的政治、军事和技术援助;巴黎和会以后,孙中山的亲德政策与亲苏政策相联结,形成了"中德苏联盟"的构想,亲德和亲苏政策是一体推进的,其政策来源于孙中山的"大亚洲主义";孙中山认为受凡尔赛—华盛顿体系压迫的民族应该通过中德苏三国联合来抵抗英美强权,孙中山的思想成为后来中国国民党联俄政策和聘请德国军事顾问团的基础;尽管孙中山及其广州政府并没有与德国建立正式的外交关系,其联俄政策也因为他的逝世而最终放弃,但在整个20世纪30-40年代,这种中德苏合作的政策总是时隐时现地贯穿于中国政治家的认识中。     

A note on estimating the common mean of k normal distributions and the stein problem

An unbiased estimator for the common mean of k normal distributions is suggested. A necessary and sufficient condition for the estimator Lo have a smaller variance than each sample mean is given. In the case of estimating the common mean vector of k p-variate (p ≤ 3) normal distributions a combined unbiased estimator may be used. We give a class of estimators which are better than the combined estimator when the loss is quadratic and the restriction of unbiasedness is removed.     

New types of shrinkage estimators of Poisson means under the normalized squared error loss

In estimating p( ? 2) independent Poisson means, Clevenson and Zidek (1975) have proposed a class of estimators that shrink the unbiased estimator to the origin and dominate the unbiased one under the normalized squared error loss. This class of estimators was subsequently enlarged in several directions. This article deals with the problem and proposes new classes of dominating estimators using prior information pertinently. Dominance is shown by partitioning the sample space into disjoint subsets and averaging the loss difference over each subset. Estimation of several Poisson mean vectors is also discussed. Further, simultaneous estimation of Poisson means under order restriction is treated and estimators which dominate the isotonic regression estimator are proposed for some types of order restrictions.     

On Efron's Parameterization

This paper discusses a curved exponential family of distributions which is defined by a differential equation with respect to the expectation parameters in the two–dimensional exponential family. The differential equation considered here is the same as the one given by Efron (1975) for the trinomial distribution. This equation is extended here to a general exponential family, and called Efron's parameterization in the two–dimensional exponential family. The solution of Efron's parameterization is obtained explicitly in an exponential family, although Kumagai & Inagaki (1996) showed that there exists no proper solution of Efron's equation for the trinomial distribution, in line with the counterexample given by Efron (1975 p. 1206). The paper gives some characterizations of Efron's parameterization with special reference to Fisher's circle model. The implications of these characterizations are the two–dimensional normal distribution and a spiral curve in the plane.     

Estimation of Ordered Means of Two Poisson Distributions

In this article, we discuss the estimation of linear functions of two Poisson means, on which an order restriction is given. We give a necessary and sufficient condition on the coefficients of the linear function for the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) which satisfies the order restriction to dominate the unbiased estimator under squared error loss. Furthermore, simultaneous estimation of two ordered Poisson means is considered and we suggest the Clevenson–Zidek type modification of MLE which dominates the MLE under normalized squared error loss. We also improve the estimator proposed by Clevenson and Zidek (1975 Clevenson , M. , Zidek , J. ( 1975 ). Simultaneous estimation of the means of independent Poisson laws . J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 70 : 698 – 705 . [CSA] [CROSSREF] [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) which ignores the order restriction.     

A variable selection method for detecting abnormality based on the T2 test

This paper proposes a variable selection method for detecting abnormal items based on the T² test when the observations on abnormal items are available. Based on the unbiased estimates of the powers for all subsets of variables, the variable selection method selects the subset of variables that maximizes the power estimate. Since more than one subsets of variables maximize the power estimate frequently, the averaged p-value of the rejected items is used as a second criterion. Although the performance of the method depends on the sample size for the abnormal items and the true power values for all subsets of variables, numerical experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed method. Since normal and abnormal items are simulated using one-factor and two-factor models, basic properties of the power functions for the models are investigated.     

Accumulation of phyllodulcin in sweet-leaf plants ofHydrangea serrata and its neutrality in the defence against a specialist leafmining herbivore

Among wild plants ofHydrangea serrata (Hydrangeaceae) in Japan, there are sweet plants whose leave contain a kind of isocoumarin, phyllodulcin, which happens to be 350 times as sweet as sucrose to the human tongue. In a primary beech forest in Ashu, Kyoto, the spatial distribution of sweet plants and temporal and the spatial distribution of phyllodulcin within and among plants were investigated using a high performance liquid chromatograph. The distribution of sweet plants was confined within a valley and was parapatric with non-sweet plants. A plant's characteristic phyllodulcin accumulation did not change, even when transplanted into the different habitats. The phyllodulcin content of the sweet plants varied greatly among plants, and the population mean peaked in July when the plants flowered. Within a plant, phyllodulcin content was elevated by partial defoliation. We examined the possible effect of phyllodulcin on herbivory by a specialist leafmining herbivore,Antispila hydrangifoliella (Lepidoptera: Heliozelidae). We transplanted sweet and nonsweet plants reciprocally between their original habitats, excluded attacks by parasitoids, and compared performance of the leafminer. Leafminer colonization and larval survivorship on transplanted andin situ plants was not significantly different between sites. The fact that accumulation of phyllodulcin did not augment a defensive function, at least against herbivory by the leafminer, and the sporadic distribution of phyllodulcin-accumulating plants, suggest that the genotypes synthesizing phyllodulcin emerged independently at separate localities by mutation, and that the genotypes are almost adaptively neutral in defence against the specialist herbivore.