Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

Teaching International Social Work in a Global Classroom

Social work educators are challenged with preparing students for international social work and work with immigrant and refugee populations. This pilot project aimed to develop an online global classroom to teach an international social work course to social work students participating from five different locations: United States (N=25), South Africa (N=4), Mexico (N=11), Hong Kong (N=6), and Australia (N=2). Qualitative data were collected from students regarding their experiences in this global classroom. Thematic analysis revealed the development of rich authentic learning, where their interactions with international classmates led to a transformative learning experience and a beginning sense of social work in a global context. Implications for future leaning and teaching of social work content across global borders are discussed.     

Leader-employee congruence of expected contributions in the employee-organization relationship

Employees' expected contributions can be incongruent with those of their leader. We examine the congruence effect of leaders' and employees' expected contributions on job satisfaction. Results of cross-level polynomial regressions on 947 employees and 224 leaders support the congruence effect. When expected contributions are congruent, employees are more satisfied with their job. Our findings suggest that employees enjoy high challenges, as long as these challenges are in harmony with the expected contributions of their leaders. Employees are less satisfied with their jobs both when their expected contributions were higher than their leaders' and when their expected contributions were lower than those of their leaders. Beyond the relevance of having high expected contributions, the findings highlight the crucial role played by the congruence of expected contributions of leaders and employees.     

Uniform consistency rate of kNN regression estimation for functional time series data

In this paper, we investigate the k-nearest neighbours (kNN) estimation of nonparametric regression model for strong mixing functional time series data. More precisely, we establish the uniform almost complete convergence rate of the kNN estimator under some mild conditions. Furthermore, a simulation study and an empirical application to the real data analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) are carried out to illustrate the finite sample performances and the usefulness of the kNN approach.     

Estimation of generalized linear latent variable models

Summary.  Generalized linear latent variable models (GLLVMs), as defined by Bartholomew and Knott, enable modelling of relationships between manifest and latent variables. They extend structural equation modelling techniques, which are powerful tools in the social sciences. However, because of the complexity of the log-likelihood function of a GLLVM, an approximation such as numerical integration must be used for inference. This can limit drastically the number of variables in the model and can lead to biased estimators. We propose a new estimator for the parameters of a GLLVM, based on a Laplace approximation to the likelihood function and which can be computed even for models with a large number of variables. The new estimator can be viewed as an M -estimator, leading to readily available asymptotic properties and correct inference. A simulation study shows its excellent finite sample properties, in particular when compared with a well-established approach such as LISREL. A real data example on the measurement of wealth for the computation of multidimensional inequality is analysed to highlight the importance of the methodology.     

Local dependence estimation using semiparametric archimedean copulas

The authors define a new semiparametric Archimedean copula family which has a flexible dependence structure. The generator of the family is a local interpolation of existing generators. It has locally‐defined dependence parameters. The authors present a penalized constrained least‐squares method to estimate and smooth these parameters. They illustrate the flexibility of their dependence model in a bi‐variate survival example.