Uncertain Numbers and Uncertainty in the Selection of Input Distributions—Consequences for a Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Contaminated Land

Risks from exposure to contaminated land are often assessed with the aid of mathematical models. The current probabilistic approach is a considerable improvement on previous deterministic risk assessment practices, in that it attempts to characterize uncertainty and variability. However, some inputs continue to be assigned as precise numbers, while others are characterized as precise probability distributions. Such precision is hard to justify, and we show in this article how rounding errors and distribution assumptions can affect an exposure assessment. The outcome of traditional deterministic point estimates and Monte Carlo simulations were compared to probability bounds analyses. Assigning all scalars as imprecise numbers (intervals prescribed by significant digits) added uncertainty to the deterministic point estimate of about one order of magnitude. Similarly, representing probability distributions as probability boxes added several orders of magnitude to the uncertainty of the probabilistic estimate. This indicates that the size of the uncertainty in such assessments is actually much greater than currently reported. The article suggests that full disclosure of the uncertainty may facilitate decision making in opening up a negotiation window. In the risk analysis process, it is also an ethical obligation to clarify the boundary between the scientific and social domains.     

Comparing swimsuits in 3D

In competitive swimming, suits have become more important. These suits influence friction, pressure and wave drag. Friction drag is related to the surface properties whereas both pressure and wave drag are greatly influenced by body shape. To find a relationship between the body shape and the drag, the anthropometry of several world class female swimmers wearing different suits was accurately defined using a 3D scanner and traditional measuring methods. The 3D scans delivered more detailed information about the body shape. On the same day the swimmers did performance tests in the water with the tested suits. Afterwards the result of the performance tests and the differences found in body shape was analyzed to determine the deformation caused by a swimsuit and its effect on the swimming performance. Although the amount of data is limited because of the few test subjects, there is an indication that the deformation of the body influences the swimming performance.     

Gender and social conformity: Do men and women respond differently to social pressure to vote?

In this paper, we re-analyze data from a large-scale field experiment (N = 344,084) on voter turnout in order to determine whether men and women respond differently to social pressure aimed at voter mobilization. To date, there have been mixed results regarding the interaction between a person’s gender and receptivity to social influence. On the whole, our analyses confirm prior findings that social pressure increases voter turnout but uncover little to no evidence of gender differences in receptivity to social pressure cues in the context of political participation.     

Dashed Hopes,Dashed Selves? A Sociometer Perspective on Self‐esteem Change Across the Transition to Secondary School

The transition from primary to secondary school challenges children's psychological well‐being. A cross‐transitional longitudinal study (N = 306; mean age = 12.2 years) examined why some children's self‐esteem decreases across the transition whereas other children's self‐esteem does not. Children's expected social acceptance in secondary school was measured before the transition; their actually perceived social acceptance was measured after the transition. Self‐esteem and Big Five personality traits were measured both pre‐ and posttransition. Self‐esteem changed as a function of the discrepancy between children's expected and actually perceived social acceptance. Furthermore, neuroticism magnified self‐esteem decreases when children's ‘hopes were dashed'—when they experienced disappointing levels of social acceptance. These findings provide longitudinal support for sociometer theory across the critical transition to secondary school.     

Bounding Analysis as an Inadequately Specified Methodology

The bounding analysis methodology described by Ha-Duong et al. (this issue) is logically incomplete and invites serious misuse and misinterpretation, as their own example and interpretation illustrate. A key issue is the extent to which these problems are inherent in their methodology, and resolvable by a logically complete assessment (such as Monte Carlo or Bayesian risk assessment), as opposed to being general problems in any risk-assessment methodology. I here attempt to apportion the problems between those inherent in the proposed bounding analysis and those that are more general, such as reliance on questionable expert elicitations. I conclude that the specific methodology of Ha-Duong et al. suffers from logical gaps in the definition and construction of inputs, and hence should not be used in the form proposed. Furthermore, the labor required to do a sound bounding analysis is great enough so that one may as well skip that analysis and carry out a more logically complete probabilistic analysis, one that will better inform the consumer of the appropriate level uncertainty. If analysts insist on carrying out a bounding analysis in place of more thorough assessments, extensive analyses of sensitivity to inputs and assumptions will be essential to display uncertainties, arguably more essential than it would be in full probabilistic analyses.     

Leukemia Attributable to Residential Magnetic Fields: Results from Analyses Allowing for Study Biases

Nearly every epidemiologic study of residential magnetic fields and childhood leukemia has exhibited a positive association. Nonetheless, because these studies suffer from various methodologic limitations and there is no known plausible mechanism of action, it remains uncertain as to how much, if any, of these associations are causal. Furthermore, because the observed associations are small and involve only the highest and most infrequent levels of exposure, it is believed that the public health impact of an effect would be small. We present some formal analyses of the impact of power-frequency residential magnetic-field exposure (as measured by attributable fractions), accounting for our uncertainties about study biases as well as uncertainties about exposure distribution. These analyses support the idea that the public health impact of residential fields is likely to be limited, but both no impact and a substantial impact remain possibilities in light of the available data.     

Competition Between Banks and Building Societies in the Retailing of Financial Services

Within the financial services sector there has been diversification on a vast scale, with varying degrees of success. Financial services are increasingly viewed as products, the various branch networks as channels of distribution. The competition between banks and building societies has become a major battleground in the war for consumers' financial services expenditure. Both types of organization have a strong presence in the high street and have become major users of media advertising and other marketing weaponry. Historically, they have both enjoyed strong but different forms of relationship with their customers; these differences are rapidly diminishing as each invades the other's trading territory. This paper presents results from a study of bank-building society competition, illustrating the attributes and dimensions upon which consumers tend to base their choices. Financial services retailers are urged to base their marketing strategies upon a clear understanding of consumer needs and motives, not upon ‘me-too’ responses to competitors' moves. As many product retailers have discovered to their cost, heavy marketing expenditure cannot be a substitute for a well founded retail marketing strategy.     

THE TRAVELS OF A BANK DEPOSIT IN TURBULENT TIMES: THE IMPORTANCE OF DEPOSIT INSURANCE DESIGN FOR CROSS-BORDER DEPOSITS

We examine the impact of the existence on an explicit deposit insurance (DI) scheme and its design features on bilateral cross-border deposits (CBD) in a gravity model setting. We find that both the absolute quality of a country's DI and its relative quality vis-à-vis other countries' DI generally affect depositor behavior. However, during systemic banking crises, cross-border depositors primarily seek countries with the best DI schemes. Similarly, during the 2008–2009 great financial crisis, the emergency actions taken by the governments, which supply and maintain these safe havens, have led to substantial relocations of CBD. (JEL F34, G18)