Statistical testing strategies for assessing treatment efficacy and marker accuracy in phase III trials

When a candidate predictive marker is available, but evidence on its predictive ability is not sufficiently reliable, all‐comers trials with marker stratification are frequently conducted. We propose a framework for planning and evaluating prospective testing strategies in confirmatory, phase III marker‐stratified clinical trials based on a natural assumption on heterogeneity of treatment effects across marker‐defined subpopulations, where weak rather than strong control is permitted for multiple population tests. For phase III marker‐stratified trials, it is expected that treatment efficacy is established in a particular patient population, possibly in a marker‐defined subpopulation, and that the marker accuracy is assessed when the marker is used to restrict the indication or labelling of the treatment to a marker‐based subpopulation, ie, assessment of the clinical validity of the marker. In this paper, we develop statistical testing strategies based on criteria that are explicitly designated to the marker assessment, including those examining treatment effects in marker‐negative patients. As existing and developed statistical testing strategies can assert treatment efficacy for either the overall patient population or the marker‐positive subpopulation, we also develop criteria for evaluating the operating characteristics of the statistical testing strategies based on the probabilities of asserting treatment efficacy across marker subpopulations. Numerical evaluations to compare the statistical testing strategies based on the developed criteria are provided.     

On a test for structural stability of euler conditions parameters estimated via the generalized method of moments estimator: small sample properties

This paper presents Monte Carlo experiments on the small sample performance of the predictive test for structural change proposed by Ghysels and Hall. The predictive test was found to be more powerful than the overidentifying restrictions test in terms of size-corrected power when a shift in parameter has occurred. Also, it was found that the power of the predictive test decreases drastically as the number of the out-sample data decreases.     

ANALYZING INDUSTRY‐LEVEL VULNERABILITY BY PREDICTING FINANCIAL BANKRUPTCY

This study introduces a novel framework for building company bankruptcy models and a methodology for assessing the vulnerability of industrial economic activities. We consider the identification of bankruptcy as a classification problem and assume that bankruptcy criteria differ across industries. We build highly accurate industry bankruptcy models by constructing separate models for each industry. We also propose a method of analyzing the vulnerability of industrial economic activities in various countries and industries using new indicators we call “expected potential loss,” which we obtain using the predicted likelihood of bankruptcy and company information. (JEL G0, C0)     

Dispersion distance of queens from natal sites in the two haplometrotic paper waspsPolistes riparius andP. snelleni (Hymenoptera: Vespidae)

Summary Dispersion capabilities of new queens were studied in the two haplometrotic paper waspsPolistes riparius andP. snelleni. New queens were marked on the nests in the late summer and located in the next spring. Dispersion distances greatly varied among queens: although a large part of recovered queens nested in close proximity to their natal sites, some did disperse over 100–300 m. This suggests that queens' emigration from and immigration into the censused areas occurred to a substantial extent. On the whole, these species exhibited a weaker “philopatric” tendency than those so far studied for dispersion distance, and seem to have the potential for a long-distance dispersion.     

On least-squares bias in the AR(p) models: Bias correction using the bootstrap methods

In the case where the lagged dependent variables are included in the regression model, it is known that the ordinary least squares estimates (OLSE) are biased in small sample and that the bias increases as the number of the irrelevant variables increases. In this paper, based on the bootstrap methods, an attempt is made to obtain the unbiased estimates in autoregressive and non-Gaussian cases. We propose the residual-based bootstrap method in this paper. Some simulation studies are performed to examine whether the proposed estimation procedure works well or not. We obtain the results that it is possible to recover the true parameter values and that the proposed procedure gives us the less biased estimators than OLSE. This paper is a substantial revision of Tanizaki (2000). The normality assumption is adopted in Tanizaki (2000), but it is not required in this paper. The authors are grateful to an anonymous referee for valuable suggestions and comments. This research was partially supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)(2) #14530033, 2002–2005, for H. Tanizaki and Grants-in-Aid for the 21st Century COE Program.     

日本的森林文化及其理想模式

森林是人类赖以生存的基础,而森林文化是人类共同的文化,也是人类文化的源泉。日本是一个森林大国,拥有丰富的森林文化。本文首先介绍了日本森林的概况,然后从森林文化的起源、概念、宗教、政策、功能、价值、技术、环境教育等几个方面概述了日本森林文化的研究动态以及成果,并且介绍了日本典型的森林文化。最后文章提出了日本式森林文化理想模式,分析了日本社会的森林文化现象与将来的发展趋势。本文对我国的森林文化研究、生态文明建设和社会主义新农村建设是有借鉴意义的。     

中国壮族与越南侬族的民族关系与交流

侬族来自广西的壮族地区.壮族与侬族的文化在诸多方面有许多共同点.但是,壮族的汉化在进行,而由于受国境划分,中国王朝和汉族的影响没有直接波及侬族,因此侬族保留了更古老的习俗.尽管受国境划分,但两者间往来还持续着.虽然民族政策渗透而人们受国家的制约,但是人们在日常生活中,未必意识到国家,他们的生活圈很容易超越带有政治色彩的国境线.这种在人的生活世界中产生的国境的意义的问题,今后有进一步思考的必要.     

EU Accession, Financial Integration, and Contagion Effects: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of CEEC-3 Bond Markets

In this paper, we investigate the conditional correlations between the bond markets in CEEC-3 (i.e., Poland, Czech Republic, and Hungary) and Germany from 2000 to 2013 using the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model developed by Cappiello et al. (J Financ Econ 4:557–572, 2006). CEEC-3 comprise emerging transition economies that became European Union (EU) members in 2004, while Germany serves as a representative of the EU because it is the largest economy in the eurozone. Based on the presented analytical models, we make four important findings. First, we show that financial integration had already evolved before the adoption of the euro in 2004 in the Czech Republic, while the financial integration process continues in Poland but not in Hungary. Second, the bond markets in both Poland and Hungary decreased their dependence on that in Germany during the global financial crisis period. Third, financial contagion did not occur in the bond markets in CEEC-3 and Germany during the European sovereign debt crisis period. Finally, we can observe asymmetric effects on returns over time when markets fluctuate sharply.     

SEASONAL INTEGRATION FOR DAILY DATA

This paper has two purposes: it introduces the econometric methods used to analyze time series data with general frequency and presents a framework for analyzing economic variables that are measured daily; this special case is then applied to the trading volume of stock markets.