Custom Epoch Estimation for Surveys

The paper provides a method for generating epoch estimates for time series survey data, allowing for different periods of time (or even point estimates) according to user demand. The method uses a modified kriging estimator, which suppresses the contribution of sampling error variability in order to guarantee that custom epoch estimates have an interpolation property. For the veteran population variable of the American Community Survey, we utilize a simple Brownian Motion model of the population process and derive the modified kriging estimator for this case. The tuning parameters of this population model can be calibrated to the data via simple formulas. We illustrate the application of this method to the generation of point estimates of veteran population, an important objective for Veterans Affairs.     

Sex differences in nonverbal expressiveness: Emotional expression,personality, and impressions

Sex differences in expressiveness are well documented, but the reasons for and correlates of these important differences are not well studied. A comprehensive set of emotion-relevant personality measures was administered to 40 female and 39 male undergraduate participants, who were also videotaped in three situations: engaging in natural social interaction, describing a past emotional experience, and posing various emotions. Videotapes were judged by sets of naive observers as to emotion communicated and overall impression. Expressive females, who appeared friendly and dominant in social interaction, were found to have a hostile/aggressive personality (but this was not true of males). Expressive females also tended to look angry/disgusted when describing happy and sad experiences. The findings suggest that nonverbally skilled, charismatic women (but not men) may often possess a dominant/aggressive but self-controlled personality, in a new twist on the theory that sex differences in expressiveness result in part from the oppression of women in society.This research was supported in part by an intramural research grant from University of California, Riverside.     

A model for short-term group therapy on a children's inpatient unit

The paper describes the group therapy model which has evolved over the past two years on the Child Psychiatry Inpatient Unit of North Carolina Memorial Hospital. It begins with a brief review of the literature concerning group therapy with latency-aged children. The setting and patient population are described. Vignettes from group sessions are used to illustrate techniques which have evolved to deal with this particular setting and population. These include a leadership style characterized by much clarification, modeling, and limit setting; extensive focus on beginning and terminating; clearly defined behavioral limits; the use of time out; and use of play materials requiring little skill or attention as anxiety binders as well as projective media; and observation and supervisory discussions open to all members of the treatment team. The paper concludes with a discussion of the potentials and limitations of group therapy in such a setting. The thesis is that this model is effective in diagnosing developmental levels, in developing interpersonal skills, in substituting verbalization for action, and in mastering separation anxieties, though the setting limits the extent to which controlled regression, transference, and group pressures can develop and be used to produce change.     

Coordination and citizen participation

This study investigates the validity of the assumption that coordination and citizen participation are related inversely and, thus, are incompatible as features in the same social service reform strategy. Seventeen social service organizations situated in the same urban area were studied. Data were obtained by structured interview. The concepts of coordination and citizen participation were operationalized by means of scales. The findings support the validity of the assumption noted above. Although interpretations of the findings can be provided, they are post-factum. This implies a need for explanatory research which might be guided by theories of community power structure and of organizational behavior.     

Signal extraction goodness-of-fit diagnostic tests under model parameter uncertainty: Formulations and empirical evaluation

We present a time-domain goodness-of-fit (gof) diagnostic test that is based on signal-extraction variances for nonstationary time series. This diagnostic test extends the time-domain gof statistic of Maravall (2003 Maravall, A. (2003). A class of diagnostics in the ARIMA-model-based decomposition of a time series. Memorandum, Bank of Spain. Available at http://www.bde.es/servicio/software/tramo/diagnosticsamb.pdf [Google Scholar]) by taking into account the effects of model parameter uncertainty, utilizing theoretical results of McElroy and Holan (2009 McElroy, T., Holan, S. (2009). A local spectral approach for assessing time series model misspeci?cation. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 100:604–621.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We demonstrate that omitting this correction results in a severely undersized statistic. Adequate size and power are obtained in Monte Carlo studies for fairly short time series (10 to 15 years of monthly data). Our Monte Carlo studies of finite sample size and power consider different combinations of both signal and noise components using seasonal, trend, and irregular component models obtained via canonical decomposition. Details of the implementation appropriate for SARIMA models are given. We apply the gof diagnostic test statistics to several U.S. Census Bureau time series. The results generally corroborate the output of the automatic model selection procedure of the X-12-ARIMA software, which in contrast to our diagnostic test statistic does not involve hypothesis testing. We conclude that these diagnostic test statistics are a useful supplementary model-checking tool for practitioners engaged in the task of model-based seasonal adjustment.     

CASH INFLOWS AND BUBBLES IN ASSET MARKETS WITH CONSTANT FUNDAMENTAL VALUES

Previous experimental research on asset markets has reported that the level of cash available to traders does not affect asset prices when fundamentals follow a time trajectory that is constant over time. This contrasts with other research indicating that greater cash levels increase prices when fundamental values are decreasing over time. We report a new experiment in which we show that greater initial cash levels are indeed associated with higher prices when fundamental values are constant over time. Thus, high cash levels will lead to bubbles, if the cash is introduced before the market opens. Our results reconcile the two previous sets of findings. (JEL C90, D03, G02, G12)     

Who Is Supporting Homeless Youth? Predictors of Support in Personal Networks

Homeless youth lack the traditional support networks of their housed peers, which increases their risk for poor health outcomes. Using a multilevel dyadic analytic approach, this study identified characteristics of social contacts, relationships, and social networks associated with the provision of tangible and emotional support to homeless youth (N = 419, M age = 20.09, SD = 2.80). Support providers were likely to be family members, sex partners, or non–street‐based contacts. The provision of support was also associated with contacts' employment and homelessness status, frequency of contact, shared risk behaviors, and the number of network members that were homeless and employed. The results provide insights into how homeless youth could be assisted to develop more supportive social networks.     

Utility of Child Report: Correspondence with Parent‐Reported Child Abuse Risk

• Use multiple informants.
• Children can provide useful information.
• Comprehensive abuse risk assessment.

     

Assessing Participation and Effectiveness of the Peer-Led Approach in Youth Sexual Health Education: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis in More Developed Countries

Sexual health education for young people is crucial not only for development of norms but also for protection against vulnerabilities during this stage in life. Although several systematic reviews have examined the effectiveness of peer-led sex education, none have focused on the extent of peer participation. The purpose of this review was to evaluate peer-led sexual health education interventions in more developed countries (MDCs). Electronic and manual searches across five social science, education, and medical databases were conducted. Fifteen articles were selected in total. Most (10 of 15) studies gave low or no responsibility to peers. The majority of articles found improvements in sexual health knowledge (13 of 14) and attitudes (11 of 15) at postintervention stages. Two studies showed improved self-efficacy, and three showed behavioral changes. A preliminary synthesis of effectiveness and level of participation was done. Meta-analysis revealed a large effect on knowledge change (Hedges’ g = 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43 to 1.25) and a medium effect on attitude change (Hedges’ g = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.19 to 0.80). Peer-led interventions could be a powerful tool. This review shows that this approach is effective in changing knowledge and attitudes but not behaviors. Further research and action are needed to understand optimal implementation.