The World Fertility Survey: an appraisal of methodology

"In the first half of the article, a broad account of content and procedures is given. In conduct of individual surveys, the achievements of the World Fertility Survey were based on thoroughness rather than technical superiority. The later aspects of the program, including analysis, archiving, and data dissemination, were more innovative and represent models of excellence for similar future enquiries. In overall terms, the program is judged to be an expensive success. In the second half of the article, two methodological issues are discussed in more detail: the collection of retrospective birth histories and the translation of survey instruments into local languages." Comments by Anthony G. Turner (pp. 768-9), Kweku T. de Graft-Johnson (pp. 769-70), Burton Singer (pp. 771-2), and Joel E. Cohen (pp. 772-4) are appended.     

Complete censuses and samples

"Complete decennial censuses are needed for small areas and other domains. Sample surveys yield diverse and timely data. Censuses can also be combined with samples, and sometimes with data from registers, for diverse estimates that are detailed over both space and time, and hence are timely for small domains. Methods of 'postcensal estimates' for small domains are described. We note uses of censuses for improving samples and of samples for improving censuses, and propose a method for cumulating data from 'rolling' (or rotating) periodic (weekly, monthly or quarterly) samples specifically designed to cover the population in detail over designed spans (annual and quinquennial)."     

Asian immigrants in Canada: some findings from 1981 census

Immigrant characteristics in Canada are analyzed using data from the 1981 census. "The purpose of this paper is to focus on Asian immigrants and to compare them with immigrants born in the United Kingdom, and also to compare them with Canadian-born persons with respect to age, sex, marital status composition, educational attainment, labour force participation, class of worker, occupation and income." (summary in FRE, SPA)     

Boom and bust: housing equity withdrawal and consumption decisions and their impacts on household wealth

The authors examine whether the surge in housing refinance and equity withdrawal generated by the housing boom disproportionately affected older households in terms of decisions on whether to refinance, whether to withdraw equity, and how much to withdraw, and how in turn these decisions affected their household wealth. Using the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances, the authors found the highest rates of refinancing and cashing out equity among older (although not necessarily the oldest) households. The authors also found that appreciation in house value, being a baby boomer, and having higher household income were the factors that most increased the probability of refinancing and withdrawing equity. Amounts cashed out were higher among older than among younger households. Ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates showed that amounts withdrawn were increased by price appreciation, financial assets, and income, along with being a "pre-boomer" or "early boomer." Older cohorts displayed larger wealth effects than younger ones, but their withdrawn equity was a smaller percentage of total net worth. A relatively small percentage of respondents' dollars was used for consumption, and most dollars were used for home improvement, other investment, or debt repayment. However, massive equity withdrawal and the subsequent collapse of housing prices have caused housing leverage to soar, putting some homeowners "underwater" and jeopardizing others' retirement preparedness. The ensuing housing finance crisis raises numerous policy issues, from reform of mortgage underwriting, securitization, servicing, and foreclosure procedures, to potential limitations on borrowing against unrealized housing equity gains, to enhanced government transfers for distressed older homeowners, to local and state revenue policy changes.     

Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

Using best available science to protect critical areas in Washington state: challenges and barriers to planners

Urban development has profound impacts on ecological patterns and processes making the scientific information required for developing environmental ordinances central for mitigating these negative ecological impacts. Washington State requires that planners use the best available science (BAS) to formulate land use ordinances as part of the state’s Growth Management Act (GMA). We present empirical findings describing challenges to planners in defining “best available science” and using BAS to create local ordinances that balance development needs with natural resource protection. We interviewed city and county planners (and their consultants) in western Washington to determine what they find useful about BAS, whether or not BAS is applicable to their jurisdictions, and what constraints they experience in reviewing and using BAS to create or update their land use ordinances. Our results suggest that applying the BAS requirement is particularly difficult in urban areas. Specifically, planners had difficulty applying results from research conducted in systems dissimilar to their urban landscapes. These challenges to planners were exacerbated by (1) a lack of resources and (2) political tensions among stakeholders with competing values in urban settings. We conclude with recommendations for improving the consideration of science in statewide land-use planning.     

A comparative analysis of school-to-work transitions in the European Union1

The present paper describes some aspects of ‘school-to-work’ transition by analyzing the employment situation of individuals as a function of the time elapsed since the completion of education or training. Our perspective is interdisciplinary, comparative and dynamic, with special focus on the patterns in southern European countries. In the literature, most of the studies have had the basic approach of constructing indicators based on retrospective information on the time of first leaving continuous education, and current information on status and characteristics of the person's economic activity – expressing the status of activity as a function of the time elapsed since leaving continuous education. In this approach, essentially cross-sectional (though in part retrospective) information is interpreted as if it pertains to real cohorts. Much of this comparative analysis of school-to-work transitions in EU countries has been based on the EU Labour Force Survey, the 2000 round of which incorporated a special module to collect information on the subject. Our basic approach is to use the longitudinal data from the European Community Household Panel to identify, at the time of each wave, the person's most recently completed education and training, and study this in relation to the person's current employment situation and other characteristics as a function of the time elapsed since that completion. Hence, in form at least, our approach is similar to that of earlier studies based on the LFS, though there are considerable differences in substantive content and statistical methodology resulting from the use of different types of data. We also demonstrate how data from a panel survey may be cumulated over time to obtain a more adequate sample size.     

Correlates of physical activity in a community sample of older adults in Appalachia

Although much has been learned about the global determinants of physical activity in adults, there has been a lack of specific focus on gender, age, and urban/rural differences. In this church-based community sample of Appalachian adults (N = 1,239), the primary correlates of physical activity included age, gender, obesity, and self-efficacy. Overall, 42% of all participants and 31% of adults age 65 years or older met recommended guidelines for physical activity, which suggests that most participants do not engage in adequate levels of physical activity. Of participants who met physical activity guidelines, the most common modes of moderate and vigorous activity were walking briskly or uphill, heavy housework or gardening, light strength training, and biking. These particular activities that focus on building self-efficacy might be viable targets for intervention among older adults in rural communities.