Uncertain Numbers and Uncertainty in the Selection of Input Distributions—Consequences for a Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Contaminated Land

Risks from exposure to contaminated land are often assessed with the aid of mathematical models. The current probabilistic approach is a considerable improvement on previous deterministic risk assessment practices, in that it attempts to characterize uncertainty and variability. However, some inputs continue to be assigned as precise numbers, while others are characterized as precise probability distributions. Such precision is hard to justify, and we show in this article how rounding errors and distribution assumptions can affect an exposure assessment. The outcome of traditional deterministic point estimates and Monte Carlo simulations were compared to probability bounds analyses. Assigning all scalars as imprecise numbers (intervals prescribed by significant digits) added uncertainty to the deterministic point estimate of about one order of magnitude. Similarly, representing probability distributions as probability boxes added several orders of magnitude to the uncertainty of the probabilistic estimate. This indicates that the size of the uncertainty in such assessments is actually much greater than currently reported. The article suggests that full disclosure of the uncertainty may facilitate decision making in opening up a negotiation window. In the risk analysis process, it is also an ethical obligation to clarify the boundary between the scientific and social domains.     

Big girls don't frown,big boys don't cry—Gender differences of professional actors in communicating emotion via facial expression

It was tested whether professional actors would be able to communicate emotional meaning via facial expression when this is presented to judges without context information. Forty takes were selected from movies, depicting a female or a male actor in close-up showing facial expression. These close-ups were selected by two expert judges, who knew the complete movie and had to agree on the emotion expressed or expected to be expressed by the female or male actor in the respective take. Five takes each were selected to represent the basic emotions of joy, sadness, fear, and anger. Twenty takes each were selected showing female and male actors. These 40 takes (edited in random order onto video tape) were presented to 90 judges (about half female and half male; about half younger pupils and about half older ones), whose task it was to judge the emotion(s) expressed on nine 5-point-emotion scales. Results indicated that female actors are somewhat better (though not statistically significant) in communicating emotion via facial expression without context than male actors are. Furthermore, significant interactions between portrayed emotion and gender of actors were found: While recognition rate for joy is very high and identical for both genders, female actors seem to be superior in communicating fear and sadness via facial expression, while male actors are more successful in communicating anger. A display rule approach seems to be appropriate for the interpretation of these results, indicating that gender-specific attempts to control/inhibit certain emotions do not only exist in real life, but also in movies.The research reported here was supported by a grant of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (WA 519/2-2). I thank Uwe Balser and Tina Mertesacker for their help in selecting the stimuli, preparing the judgment tapes, recruiting subjects and conducting the study.     

Von der Supervision zur Mediation und zurück

From supervision to mediation and vice versaMediation in organizations becomes more and more important because of increasing conflicts. The question is, which competencies of the counsellor are necessary, and above all, whether mediation is a particular method. The author explains the method of mediation and illustrates his concept of “patchwork-mediation”. This procedure allows to build a bridge between supervision and mediation.     

Ebert. Wolfgang (2001): Systemtheorien in der Supervision — Bestandsaufnahme und Perspektiven

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

The Intergenerational Transmission of Social Capital: A Developmental Approach to Adolescent Social Capital Formation*

Previous scholarship has demonstrated the importance of individual characteristics and structural context for understanding social capital formation. However, a developmental approach to social capital formation has, so far, been absent. In this study, I argue that social capital formation must be understood intergenerationally as well as structurally. Using hierarchical linear modeling, I investigate the hypothesized intergenerational transmission of social capital using Waves 1 and 2 of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. The results show that, in addition to individual characteristics, neighborhood‐level factors, and school‐level variables, parental social capital is an important predictor of adolescent social capital. This study also suggests that the intergenerational transmission of social capital functions, in part, through family structure and that structural differences account for only a relatively small share of the variation in adolescent social capital. Potential explanations for these findings are discussed.     

Comparing swimsuits in 3D

In competitive swimming, suits have become more important. These suits influence friction, pressure and wave drag. Friction drag is related to the surface properties whereas both pressure and wave drag are greatly influenced by body shape. To find a relationship between the body shape and the drag, the anthropometry of several world class female swimmers wearing different suits was accurately defined using a 3D scanner and traditional measuring methods. The 3D scans delivered more detailed information about the body shape. On the same day the swimmers did performance tests in the water with the tested suits. Afterwards the result of the performance tests and the differences found in body shape was analyzed to determine the deformation caused by a swimsuit and its effect on the swimming performance. Although the amount of data is limited because of the few test subjects, there is an indication that the deformation of the body influences the swimming performance.     

Gender and social conformity: Do men and women respond differently to social pressure to vote?

In this paper, we re-analyze data from a large-scale field experiment (N = 344,084) on voter turnout in order to determine whether men and women respond differently to social pressure aimed at voter mobilization. To date, there have been mixed results regarding the interaction between a person’s gender and receptivity to social influence. On the whole, our analyses confirm prior findings that social pressure increases voter turnout but uncover little to no evidence of gender differences in receptivity to social pressure cues in the context of political participation.