Exit, Voice, Loyalty in Transition: A Theoretical Framework

On the grounds of borrowing and reforming Hirschman’s terminology, ‘exit, voice, loyalty’, we show both a conceptual and a methodological framework that can be used to raise questions in transitology studies. These issues include the following points: are there any models being developed concerning the transition countries?; are there any similar models in Western Europe?; is there any convergence between the models of both Eastern and Western Europe? If the answer to the last issue is yes, then in which areas? Or if it is a no, is it true that a special economic, social and also political system is developing in Eastern Europe? Another issue concerns how strong the growth potential of the different models is. It also examines which are the successful models and which are not, and what is the role of the economic and political elite in the development of these models. This study includes only the theoretical framework.     

Gambling in Western and Eastern Europe: The Example of Hungary

The history of gambling in post-socialist countries is noticeably different from that of other countries in Europe. The goal of this study was therefore twofold: Firstly, to systematically review all European epidemiological studies related to excessive gambling in the general adult population, and secondly, to provide an overview of the state of gambling in Hungary based on the first ever nationwide representative survey, setting the results against the backdrop of the earlier European studies. A systematic review was carried out of European gambling studies which focus on a representative adult general population. Hungarian data was obtained from the National Survey on Addiction Problems in Hungary general adult population survey (N = 2,710). Pathological gambling was measured by the South Oaks Gambling Screen. Lifetime prevalence of excessive gambling (problem and pathological gambling) in the general adult population of European countries varies between 1.1% (Italy and Spain) and 6.5% (Estonia). In Hungary, the prevalence of problem gambling is 1.9%, with pathological gambling at 1.4%. The socio-demographic characteristics of the results are similar to those of other European countries. Using epidemiological data from the general adult populations of two post-socialist nations, it was possible to compare the results with data from 12 other European countries. Based on the data available, the extremely rapid liberation of the gambling market in the post-socialist countries has led to a similarly swift escalation in associated gambling problems.     

Revisiting the Role of Impulsivity and Compulsivity in Problematic Sexual Behaviors

Impulsivity and compulsivity are transdiagnostic features associated with clinically relevant aspects of psychiatric disorders, including addictions. However, little research has investigated how impulsivity and compulsivity relate to hypersexuality and problematic pornography use. Thus, the aims of the present study were to investigate (a) self-reported impulsivity and compulsivity with respect to hypersexuality and problematic pornography use and (b) the similarities and possible differences between hypersexuality and problematic pornography use in these domains. Utilizing structural equation modeling (SEM) in a large community sample (N = 13,778 participants; female = 4,151, 30.1%), results indicated that impulsivity (β = .28, β = .26) and compulsivity (β = .23, β = .14) were weakly related to problematic pornography use among men and women, respectively. Impulsivity had a stronger relationship (β = .41, β = .42) with hypersexuality than did compulsivity (β = .21, β = .16) among men and women, respectively. Consequently, impulsivity and compulsivity may not contribute as substantially to problematic pornography use as some scholars have proposed. On the other hand, impulsivity might have a more prominent role in hypersexuality than in problematic pornography use. Future research should examine further social and situational factors associated with problematic pornography use.     

Driven by politics: agenda setting and policy-making in Hungary 2010–2014

Studies on media and politics generally find an effect of the media on the symbolic policy agenda. Analysing data from the Hungarian Comparative Agendas Project, we demonstrate that this effect is extremely weak in the Hungarian policy-making process. We identified those issues that received greater than average coverage in the media. However, we found that in the majority of cases governmental initiatives or decisions preceded the media coverage – that is, instead of the media agenda pulling the policy agenda, the general logic is the opposite: the media are talking about the policy initiatives of the government. The ambition of the paper is twofold. First, our findings reinforce those claims in the literature that point to the many institutional and political factors affecting the media-politics nexus. This suggests that policy-making might be very different in new(er) democracies. Second, our research analyses the policy-making side of Viktor Orbán’s governance. Changes in the polity, democratic backlash and illiberal tendencies are usually the focus concerning the political changes in Hungary since 2010, but no attention has been devoted to how this type of governance is reflected in policy-making. Our paper seeks to make a contribution also in this respect.     

Designed for Patience: The Significance of Internal Factors in the Ukrainian and Belarusian Transitions

This paper focuses on Belarus in order to find explanation as to why Alexander Lukashenko was able remain the authoritarian leader of Belarus, while in Ukraine the position of the political elite had proved less stable and collapsed in 2004. We seek to determine whether the internal factors (macroeconomic conditions, standard of living, the oppressive nature of the political system) play a significant role in the operation of the domino effect. This article emphasises the determining role of immanent internal factors, thus the political stability in Belarus can be explained by the role of the suppressing political regime, the hindrance of democratic rights and the relatively good living conditions that followed the transformational recession. Whilst in Ukraine, the markedly different circumstances brought forth the success of the Orange Revolution.      

Two uniform machines with nearly equal speeds: unified approach to known sum and known optimum in semi on-line scheduling

We consider semi on-line scheduling on two uniform machines. The speed of the slow machine is normalized to 1 while the speed of the fast machine is assumed to be s≥1. Jobs of size J ₁,J ₂,… arrive one at a time, and each J _i (i≥1) has to be assigned to one of the machines before J _i+1 arrives. The assignment cannot be changed later. The processing time of the ith job is J _i on the slow machine and J _i /s on the fast one. The objective is to minimize the makespan. We study both the case where the only information known in advance is the total size ∑_i≥1 J _i of the jobs and the case where the only information known in advance is the optimum makespan. For each of these two cases, we almost completely determine the best possible competitive ratio of semi on-line algorithms compared to the off-line optimum, as a function of s in the range \(1\le s<\frac{1+\sqrt{17}}{4}\approx1.2808\), except for a very short subinterval around s=1.08. We also prove that the best competitive ratio achievable for known optimum is at least as good as the one for known sum, even for any number of uniform machines of any speeds.     

Societal Transition, Policy Changes and Family Formation: Evidence from Hungary

The paper uses the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey ‘Turning Points in the Life-course’ (HGGS) to describe recent changes in union formation, onset of childbearing, leaving home and cohabitation. By estimating survivor functions and semi-parametric hazard regression models with time-varying covariates for the timing of first union and first birth, we find a long delay among the youngest cohorts, but also remarkably strong period effects. Reduced employment, increased educational enrolment, and a higher level of uncertainty are important drivers behind these changes. Moreover, our evidence suggests that certain policy changes during the transition have exacerbated this effect, having an asymmetric impact on family formation – depending on the social status of individuals.Aassve, A., Billari, F. C. et Spéder, Zs., 2006. Société en transition, changements de politiques et formation de la famille: le cas de la Hongrie. Revue europé enne de démographie 22: 127–152.     

How are Time-Dependent Childbearing Intentions Realized? Realization,Postponement, Abandonment,Bringing Forward

Our study aims to identify factors that facilitate or inhibit the realization of fertility intentions. The analysis uses data collected in the first two waves of a Hungarian longitudinal survey. Fertility intentions recorded at the first wave pertain to the subsequent 3-year period, just similar to the behavior variable measuring the realization of intentions, i.e., a birth within the 3-year period in question. For this analysis, we used the respondents’ demographic, socio-structural, and orientational traits recorded at the first interview. Our findings show that age, parity, and partnership play a determining role in the realization of fertility intentions, but employment status, religious affiliation, and overall life satisfaction all exhibit significant effects. A marked gender difference was detected not only with regard to employment status but in the area of values and orientations as well.