The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis1

This article studies repeat or circular migration between the host and home countries using panel data for Germany, distinguishing between factors generating single moves, circular migration, and absorption. Migrants are more likely to leave early after their first arrival in Germany, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country, but less likely when they have a job in Germany and speak the language well. Once out‐migrated, the return probability is mainly affected by remittances and family considerations. Circular migration is fostered by vocational training in the host country and older age. Whereas male migrants are 9 percent more likely to return to their home country than female migrants, gender is not significant for predicting the return to move back to Germany.     

Circular and Repeat Migration: Counts of Exits and Years Away from the Host Country

The importance of repeat and circular migration starts receiving rising recognition. The paper studies this behavior by analyzing the number of exits and the total number of years away from the host country using count data models and panel data from the German guestworker experience. Beyond the myth, more than 60% of migrants in the sample from the guestworker countries living in Germany are indeed repeat or circular migrants. Migrants from European Union member countries, those not owning a dwelling in Germany, the younger and the older (excluding the middle-aged), are significantly more likely to engage in repeat migration and to stay out for longer. Males and those migrants with German passports exit more frequently, while those with higher education exit less; there are no differences with time spent out. Migrants with family in the home country remain out longer, and those closely attached to the labor market remain less; they are not leaving the country more frequently.     

Labor Market Segmentation and the Earnings of German Guestworkers

In this paper we study the occupational progress and earnings attainment of immigrants in Germany and compare them to native Germans. Our analysis is guided by the human capital, segmented labor market, and discrimination theories. To assess the separate effects of occupational segmentation and discrimination in the allocation of occupations and wages, we conceptualize the process of earnings attainment as occurring in three stages: initial occupational achievement, final occupational achievement after the accumulation of experience, and, contingent on the former, final earnings attainment. Our analysis of data from the German Socioeconomic Panel suggests a high degree of initial occupational segmentation, with mmigrants being less able to translate their human capital into a good first job than natives. We also find that immigrants experienced significant discrimination in the process of occupational attainment, yielding little job mobility over time, and a widening of the status gap between Germans and guestworkers. Holding occupational status constant, however, we find less evidence of direct discrimination in the process of earnings attainment. Although immigrants achieved lower rates of return to technical or vocational training than natives, their wage returns to experience, hours worked, years since migration, and academic high school were greater, yielding significant earnings mobility over time.     

Perceived inflation and expected future prices in different currencies

Five experiments were conducted to investigate whether perceived inflation and expected future prices are influenced by the nominal representation of increases in product prices in different currencies. In contrast to previous research demonstrating overestimates of the perceived inflation of product prices after the transition of the domestic German Mark to Euro [Greitemeyer, T., Schultz-Hardt, S., Traut-Mattausch, E., & Frey, D. (2005). The influence of price trend expectations on price trend perceptions: Why the Euro seems to make life more expensive? Journal of Economic Psychology, 26, 541–548; Traut-Mattausch, E., Schultz-Hardt, S., Greitemeyer, T., & Frey, D. (2004). Expectancy confirmation in spite of disconfirming evidence: The case of price increases due to the introduction of the Euro. European Journal of Social Psychology, 34, 739–760], the price increases were of normal magnitude (5% and 8%) and a larger set of prices was used including small weekly expenses, prices of durables, and rent. All experiments were conducted in Sweden (not member of the European monetary union) employing undergraduates who volunteered to participate in class settings without any financial compensation. The price increases were expressed in the same currency, either actual currencies (Swedish Crowns or Euros) or fictitious currencies with different units. In general inflation was underestimated, to a larger extent when the currency or the product prices were unfamiliar than familiar. It was also shown that product-specific price changes made it difficult to perceive inflationary price increases. Only marginal effects of currency unit were observed.     

Guiding Change: Using Motivational Interviewing Within Organizations

Gruppe. Interaktion. Organisation. Zeitschrift für Angewandte Organisationspsychologie (GIO) - This contribution to the journal “Gruppe. Interaktion. Organisation. (GIO)” portraits...     

Work and pay in flexible and regulated labor markets: A generalized perspective on institutional evolution and inequality trends in Europe and the U.S.

In recent years a “unified theory” has emerged out of labor economics, which argues that a combination of “macroeconomic shocks” and flexible labor market institutions in the U.S. has produced strong upward trends in wage inequality, while these same shocks have produced high unemployment and low employment growth in Europe as a side effect of the wage stability preserved by that continent's rigid labor market institutions. This paper takes issue with the common view that inequality trends are best explained by a model of stable institutions interacting with changing macroeconomic forces. It argues that European institutions in fact have changed, and that institutional changes which were triggered by the broader macroeconomic forces have affected the form as well as the size of inequality trends. While the U.S. has experienced rising strong skill-based wage inequality, institutional change in France has produced an upward trend in the density of insecure jobs and an increased concentration of low-skill workers in insecure jobs. These results challenge the view that low employment rates is the sole mechanism through which European labor markets have absorbed asymmetric shocks to their demand for labor.     

Ethnic Self‐Identification of First‐Generation Immigrants1

This paper uses the concept of ethnic self‐identification of immigrants in a two‐dimensional framework. It acknowledges that attachments to both the country of origin and the host country are not necessarily mutually exclusive. There are three possible paths of adjustment from separation at entry, namely the transitions to assimilation, integration, and marginalization. We analyze the determinants of ethnic self‐identification in this process using samples of first‐generation male and female immigrants, and controlling for pre‐ and post‐immigration characteristics. While we find strong gender differences, a wide range of pre‐immigration characteristics like education in the country of origin are not important.     

Relational contracts for household formation,fertility choice and separation

This paper applies the theory of relational contracts to a model in which a couple decides upon fertility and subsequently on continuation of the relationship. We formalize the idea that within-household-cooperation can be supported by selfinterest. Since the costs of raising children—a household public good—are unequally distributed between partners, a conflict between individually optimal and efficient decisions exists. Side-payments can support cooperation but are not legally enforceable and thus have to be part of an equilibrium. This requires stable relationships and credible punishment threats.Within this framework, we analyze the effects of separation costs and post-separation alimony payments on couples’ fertility decisions. We derive the predictions that higher separation costs and higher alimony payments facilitate cooperation and hence increase fertility. We present empirical evidence based on a recent German reform that reduced rights to post-divorce alimony payments. We find that this reform reduced in-wedlock fertility.     

Consumer attitudes towards switching supplier in three deregulated markets

The efficiency of deregulated markets is jeopardized by consumers failing to switch supplier to the extent that would be beneficial to them. In order to disentangle the determinants of failures to switch, the present study investigates consumers’ motives for negative attitudes towards switching in the deregulated Swedish markets for electricity, landline telecom, and home insurance. Based on the results of a mail survey of a random sample of 458 household consumers, reliable measures were constructed of attitude towards switching supplier, loyalty to the incumbent, information search costs to compare suppliers, and expected economic benefits from switching. A negative attitude towards switching supplier was shown to increase with loyalty, increase with information search costs and decrease with expected economic benefits. Attitude towards switching was more negative in the electricity market than in the other markets and more negative in the landline telecom market than in the home insurance market. The differences between markets were accounted for by differences in loyalty, information search costs, and expected economic benefits.