Checking validity of monotone domain mean estimators

Estimates of population characteristics such as domain means are often expected to follow monotonicity assumptions. Recently, a method to adaptively pool neighbouring domains was proposed, which ensures that the resulting domain mean estimates follow monotone constraints. The method leads to asymptotically valid estimation and inference, and can lead to substantial improvements in efficiency, in comparison with unconstrained domain estimators. However, assuming incorrect shape constraints may lead to biased estimators. Here, we develop the Cone Information Criterion for Survey Data as a diagnostic method to measure monotonicity departures on population domain means. We show that the criterion leads to a consistent methodology that makes an asymptotically correct decision choosing between unconstrained and constrained domain mean estimators. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 315–331; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Effects of mediator competence and mediation process on user satisfaction with child custody,finances, and property outcomes

This study draws on survey data from 205 family mediation service users concerning their satisfaction with the outcomes of mediation to address two research questions: (a) how satisfied are service users? and (b) what factors account for users' satisfaction with the outcome of child custody arrangements and the allocation of finances and property? Overall, users' level of satisfaction with outcomes was high. While the mediation process explained a significant variance in satisfaction with the outcomes for child custody and for finances and property, the mediator's perceived professional competence did not predict user satisfaction with the outcomes for either issue. This study contributes to our knowledge on the significance of mediators' process skill, specifically their calm and clear responses to the socioemotional needs of the mediated parties, on the service outcomes for both types of dispute. The implications for mediation training are discussed.     

Generational conflict and provisions for the elderly in Hong Kong: The relevance of position‐based interest and values

Respect for the elderly and hence the associated rights support a generational contract. Nevertheless, the case of the recent debate on the universal retirement scheme in Hong Kong has raised concerns about its strength. We identify relevant items from the sixth wave of the World Values Survey to explore the orientations of different generations toward others. The analysis shows differences between younger and older generations. Regression analyses show that values are not significant in explaining the differences, but various positions, including sex, marital status, and education, and perceptions of the elderly are relevant. Such differences across generations might weaken the generational contract and potentially engender conflicts as shown in the recent debate about the retirement scheme. We suggest short‐ and long‐term interest calculations, informed by their positions, play a more significant role in policy discussions and decisions, rather than simply appealing to values.     

Deviant Peers and Adolescent Risky Behaviors: The Protective Effect of Nonverbal Display of Parental Warmth

This study examines whether nonverbal displays of parents’ warmth during an in‐lab conflict discussion mitigate the links between affiliation with deviant peers and risky behaviors. A sample of 107 youth and their parents participated in a study spanning from mid‐adolescence (T1) to late adolescence (T2). At T1, family members discussed a contentious issue, which was coded for parents’ nonverbal warmth. At T1 and T2, youth reported on their friends’ and their own risky behaviors. Fathers’ warmth moderated each prospective association between deviant peers and risky behaviors. Mothers’ warmth did not emerge as a significant moderator. Girls, in particular, benefitted from fathers’ warmth as a buffer in the trajectory from T1 risky behaviors to T2 risky behaviors and deviant peers.     

Active Ageing Index in Korea – Comparison with China and EU countries

The evidence‐based policymaking relies on the use and robustness of the available data. Many conceptual and operational difficulties restrict this process, not least in making use of evidence to identify policy priorities. The Active Ageing Index (AAI), developed originally for the 28 European Union countries, offers a strong motivation in this respect. This paper reports on the development of the AAI for Korea, a country where speed and level of population aging is among the highest in the world. Drawing on the comparative analysis of the AAI results for Korea, China, and European countries, we find that Korea's AAI (35.3) is higher than the average of the AAI for all EU countries (33.9) but lower than China (37.3). Fitting Korea into the overall ranking with the EU countries and China (ranked 7), Korea is ranked 11, just behind Germany (10). The AAI results in Korea show that the employment domain performs extremely well compared with the EU countries, but other domains, especially “Social participation” and “Independent, healthy and secure living,” are achieving less favorable outcomes. High employment among the current cohorts of older workers in Korea can be attributed largely to the constraints of low pension income status.     

Maternal Postpartum Depression Increases Vulnerability for Toddler Behavior Problems through Infant Cortisol Reactivity

The current study examined the role of hypothalamic‐pituitary‐adrenal reactivity (a physiological indicator of stress) in early infancy as a mediator of the relationship between maternal postpartum depression and toddler behavior problems. Participants were 137 at‐risk mothers and their children participating in a longitudinal study of intergenerational transmission of risk. Mothers’ depression was measured five times during the infants’ first 18 months. Infant cortisol was collected during a social stressor (the still‐face paradigm) when infants were 6 months old, and mothers reported on toddlers’ internalizing and externalizing symptoms at 18 months. Among this sample of high‐risk mother–infant dyads, early postpartum depression predicted atypical infant cortisol reactivity at 6 months, which mediated the effect of maternal depression on increased toddler behavior problems. Clinical implications are discussed.     

The Use of Telematics Devices to Improve Automobile Insurance Rates

Most automobile insurance databases contain a large number of policyholders with zero claims. This high frequency of zeros may reflect the fact that some insureds make little use of their vehicle, or that they do not wish to make a claim for small accidents in order to avoid an increase in their premium, but it might also be because of good driving. We analyze information on exposure to risk and driving habits using telematics data from a pay‐as‐you‐drive sample of insureds. We include distance traveled per year as part of an offset in a zero‐inflated Poisson model to predict the excess of zeros. We show the existence of a learning effect for large values of distance traveled, so that longer driving should result in higher premiums, but there should be a discount for drivers who accumulate longer distances over time due to the increased proportion of zero claims. We confirm that speed limit violations and driving in urban areas increase the expected number of accident claims. We discuss how telematics information can be used to design better insurance and to improve traffic safety.     

The Value of a Statistical Life for Risk‐Averse and Risk‐Seeking Individuals

This article estimates the value of a statistical life (VSL) for Chile under the hedonic wage method while accounting for individual risk preferences. Two alternative measures of risk aversion are used. First, risk aversion is directly measured using survey measures of preferences over hypothetical gambles, and second, over observed individual behaviors that may proxy for risk preferences, such as smoking status, are used. I reconcile the results with a theoretical model of economic behavior that predicts how the wage‐risk tradeoff changes as risk aversion differs across individuals. The VSL estimates range between 0.61 and 8.68 million dollars. The results using smoking behavior as a proxy for risk attitudes are consistent with previous findings. However, directly measuring risk aversion corrects the wage‐risk tradeoff estimation bias in the opposite direction. The results are robust to other observed measures of risk aversion such as drinking behavior and stock investments. Results suggest that, consistent with the literature that connects smoking behavior with labor market outcomes, smoking status could be capturing poor health productivity effect in addition to purely risk preferences.