Three Recommendations for Improving the Use of p-Values

ABSTRACT

Researchers commonly use p-values to answer the question: How strongly does the evidence favor the alternative hypothesis relative to the null hypothesis? p-Values themselves do not directly answer this question and are often misinterpreted in ways that lead to overstating the evidence against the null hypothesis. Even in the “post p?<?0.05 era,” however, it is quite possible that p-values will continue to be widely reported and used to assess the strength of evidence (if for no other reason than the widespread availability and use of statistical software that routinely produces p-values and thereby implicitly advocates for their use). If so, the potential for misinterpretation will persist. In this article, we recommend three practices that would help researchers more accurately interpret p-values. Each of the three recommended practices involves interpreting p-values in light of their corresponding “Bayes factor bound,” which is the largest odds in favor of the alternative hypothesis relative to the null hypothesis that is consistent with the observed data. The Bayes factor bound generally indicates that a given p-value provides weaker evidence against the null hypothesis than typically assumed. We therefore believe that our recommendations can guard against some of the most harmful p-value misinterpretations. In research communities that are deeply attached to reliance on “p?<?0.05,” our recommendations will serve as initial steps away from this attachment. We emphasize that our recommendations are intended merely as initial, temporary steps and that many further steps will need to be taken to reach the ultimate destination: a holistic interpretation of statistical evidence that fully conforms to the principles laid out in the ASA statement on statistical significance and p-values.     

Climate regime shift detection with a trans‐dimensional,sequential Monte Carlo,variational Bayes method

We present an application study which exemplifies a cutting edge statistical approach for detecting climate regime shifts. The algorithm uses Bayesian computational techniques that make time‐efficient analysis of large volumes of climate data possible. Output includes probabilistic estimates of the number and duration of regimes, the number and probability distribution of hidden states, and the probability of a regime shift in any year of the time series. Analysis of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index is provided as an example. Two states are detected: one is associated with positive values of the PDO and presents lower interannual variability, while the other corresponds to negative values of the PDO and greater variability. We compare this approach with existing alternatives from the literature and highlight the potential for ours to unlock features hidden in climate data.     

Value drivers of social businesses: A business model perspective

Hybrid organizational forms that combine commercial and welfare institutional logics play an increasingly important role in addressing the grand societal challenges we face today. Building on the literatures on hybrid organizations and social business models, we explore the characteristics of social businesses from a business model perspective. This study seeks to better understand the particularities and value drivers of hybrid social purpose in contrast to purely commercial business models. We follow a grounded theory approach and our findings are based on interview data from 17 social business firms. Building on social businesses' identified particularities, we propose four value drivers of social business models: 1) responsible efficiency, 2) impact complementarities, 3) shared values, and 4) integration novelties. We link our findings to the literature, contributing new insights into social businesses models and implications for practitioners.     

A Leadership Training Group for at Risk Fifth & Seventh Graders: Results from A Brief Strength-Based Group Program

ABSTRACT

An increasing number of youth are exhibiting social, emotional, and behavioral problems that hinder their ability to function at grade level. Subsequently, school mental health services have not been able to address the need for services particularly among students who are minority and poor. A mixed methodology study was conducted to determine the treatment outcomes from a brief strength-based leadership training group for primarily students who are African American and poor. Pre–post scores on three scales and focus group data revealed significant positive changes in regard to internal areas of functioning and social skills, anger management skills, and school attitude. Gender and age significantly impacted outcomes.     

Language roulette – the effect of random placement on refugees’ labour market integration

Placement of refugees and subsequent labour market integration within a host country represents a key challenge for policymakers and has emerged as one of the most divisive topics in the public debate. Immigration policy in Switzerland adopts random placement of asylum seekers across its different language regions. Hence, this policy allows to estimate the causal effect of language skills on employment chances, as refugees are exogenously placed across regions where the spoken language could either match or deviate from individual language skills. The results of this ‘natural experiment’ indicate substantially higher probabilities of finding employment when asylum seekers are placed in regions with a lingua franca that matches their individual language skills. Additionally, the findings suggest that language course participation can offset the reduced likelihood of employment in cases of a language mismatch. While random placement of refugees may be desirable for political reasons, it is detrimental to the economic integration process. Thereby, the study draws relevant conclusions for a larger European immigration policy.     

CEO burnout,managerial discretion,and firm performance: The role of CEO locus of control,structural power,and organizational factors

Despite the possibility of burnout resulting from dynamics in firms' upper echelons, little if any work has focused on chief executive officer's (CEO's) burnout and firm performance. Drawing on managerial discretion theory, this article analyzes the influence of CEO burnout on firm performance and the moderating roles of the individual (CEO locus of control), structural power (CEO duality and CEO tenure), and organizational characteristics (size, age, and resource availability) related to managerial discretion. Using a sample of 156 CEOs in Swedish firms, we find a negative association between CEOs who report higher burnout and firm performance. Our results confirm that CEO duality and resource availability ameliorate and firm size exacerbates the negative association between CEO burnout and firm performance. Contrary to our expectations, CEO locus of control, CEO tenure, and firm age do not influence this relationship. We discuss the implications of our research for upper echelons theory and strategic leadership theory.     

Pediatric Chronic Illness Management: A Qualitative Dyadic Analysis of Adolescent Patient and Parent Illness Narratives

In pediatric chronic illness, little is known about the relational interactions between adolescent patients, parents, and illnesses and how they influence self-management of illness. We conducted interviews with 32 individuals (16 dyads) representing adolescents diagnosed with a chronic illness and their primary parent who had been referred to a psychosocial treatment program for challenges with illness management. Interviews were conducted individually and analyzed dyadically using grounded theory to better understand the relational processes that may be contributing to illness management difficulties. Results include a theory of patient–parent illness responses and how parental illness meanings play a role in adolescent self-management. Results can be used to better understand and treat family relational patterns that may be influencing pediatric illness management challenges.     

Urban vegetation cover correlates with environmental variables in a desert city: insights of mitigation measures to climate change

Urban Ecosystems - Green cover and air quality are important components of life quality and human ecology in arid lands. In the Sonoran Desert of Mexico, Hermosillo is the largest city with a...     

THE EXTENT OF THE MARKET AND INTEGRATION THROUGH FACTOR MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY

We document the influence of factor markets in determining the extent of the market, appealing to the Mundell hypothesis that trade in goods and factor markets are substitutes. We confirm this influence using the U.S. wholesale market for electric power. Although the Eastern, Western, and Texas regions cannot trade electricity, inputs such as natural gas move freely across these regions. Through a set of price transmission ratios, and a supply model for natural gas, we find regional electricity shocks do propagate across regions. We conclude output markets institutionally in autarky achieve modest degrees of economic integration through factor markets. (JEL C32, L94, Q41)     

What is this moment we are caught in?

Our response to the question ‘What is this moment we are caught in?' is articulated through our collaborative reading of Berlant's (2011) Cruel Optimism (Durham, NC: Duke University Press). Cruel optimism, Berlant suggests, is a desire for something that undermines its own potentiality. As queer academics we expose the cruelty of our desires to live a good academic life, and we do so from our different positions as postdoctoral fellow, tenured academic and PhD candidate. In labouring to consolidate relationships and practices that hold the promise of our own sustainability, we give accounts of the material and affective work we perform to constitute what Berlant calls an intimate public, a collective space of mediation that functions as a key tactic to manage our academic life. These accounts take the form of three vignettes, each inflected by the specificities of our different positions and histories of becoming academics. We use Berlant as a point of departure to both interrogate practices of self‐management and find possibilities for a collective response to the moments in which we find ourselves caught.