Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

Inhomogeneous higher-order summary statistics for point processes on linear networks

Statistics and Computing - As a workaround for the lack of transitive transformations on linear network structures, which are required to consider different notions of distributional invariance,...     

A penalized likelihood method for nonseparable space–time generalized additive models

In this paper, we study space–time generalized additive models. We apply the penalyzed likelihood method to fit generalized additive models (GAMs) for nonseparable spatio-temporal correlated data in order to improve the estimation of the response and smooth terms of GAMs. The results show that our space–time generalized additive models estimated response and smooth terms reasonable well, and in addition, the mean squared error, mean absolute deviation and coverage intervals improved considerably compared to the classic GAM. An application on particulate matter concentration in the North-Italian region of Piemonte is also presented.     

Non-Proliferation and Disarmament of Nuclear,Chemical and Biological Weapons: New Tasks for the United Nations Specialised Agencies

The reduction or the complete elimination of specific types of weapons, particularly the elimination of all weapons of mass destruction, is one of the most important challenges that the international community should face in the 21th century. In this paper, a group of proposals on the possible roles to be played by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO) and the Conference on Disarmament (CD) is included.     

A comparative study of confidence intervals to assess biosimilarity from analytical data

Assessment of analytical similarity of tier 1 quality attributes is based on a set of hypotheses that tests the mean difference of reference and test products against a margin adjusted for standard deviation of the reference product. Thus, proper assessment of the biosimilarity hypothesis requires statistical tests that account for the uncertainty associated with the estimations of the mean differences and the standard deviation of the reference product. Recently, a linear reformulation of the biosimilarity hypothesis has been proposed, which facilitates development and implementation of statistical tests. These statistical tests account for the uncertainty in the estimation process of all the unknown parameters. In this paper, we survey methods for constructing confidence intervals for testing the linearized reformulation of the biosimilarity hypothesis and also compare the performance of the methods. We discuss test procedures using confidence intervals to make possible comparison among recently developed methods as well as other previously developed methods that have not been applied for demonstrating analytical similarity. A computer simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the methods based on the ability to maintain the test size and power, as well as computational complexity. We demonstrate the methods using two example applications. At the end, we make recommendations concerning the use of the methods.     

How Does Occupational Access for Older Workers Differ by Education?

To assess the employment opportunities of older job-changers in the years prior to retirement, this study examines the how the breadth of occupations in which they find employment narrows as they age past their prime working years and how this differs by gender and educational attainment. The results indicate that workers who change jobs in their early 50s find employment in a reasonably similar set of occupations as prime-age workers, with opportunities narrowing at older ages. They also indicate that job opportunities broadened significantly for better-educated older workers since the late 1990s. While job opportunities now narrow significantly for less-educated men in their late 50s, this narrowing primarily occurs in the early 60s for women and better-educated men. In contrast to previous research, the study finds that employer policies that emphasize hiring from within are less important barriers to the hiring of older job-seekers. The study also finds that the narrowing of job opportunities is associated with a general decline in job quality as measured by median occupational earnings, a decline associated with differences in occupational skill requirements and the underlying economic environment. These results suggest that older hiring is not as limited to a select few occupations as it had been in previous decades, and that policy reforms aimed at increasing opportunities and improving labor market fluidity might best be served if they focused on less-educated men.     

Urban ecosystem Services in Latin America: mismatch between global concepts and regional realities?

Urban Ecosystems - Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is one of the most urbanized and biologically diverse regions in the world but is often characterized by weak environmental governance and...     

Patterns of pollinator turnover and increasing diversity associated with urban habitats

The role of urban expansion on bee diversity is poorly understood, but it may play an important role in restructuring pollinator diversity observed in rural regions at the urban perimeter. We studied bee communities in two habitats essential for pollinators (residential gardens and semi-natural areas) at 42 sites situated at the edge of greater Montreal, Canada. Bee species richness, abundance and functional diversity all increased with urbanization in both habitat types, but gardens and semi-natural areas supported distinct bee communities with unique responses to urbanization in terms of species turnover. Compared to semi-natural sites, residential gardens supported bees that foraged from a greater number but a lower proportion of available plant species. Bees did not discriminate between exotic and indigenous plant species in either gardens or semi-natural sites and were attracted to flowers in either habitat irrespective of their origins. Protecting semi-natural ruderal areas and providing residential garden habitats for pollinators are both effective means of promoting regional bee diversity in urbanizing regions.     

Investigating the Task Dependency of Viewing Time Effects

The viewing time method (VT) is an indirect measure of sexual interest in which participants are usually asked to rate the sexual attractiveness of target stimuli while their response latencies are unobtrusively measured. Higher response latencies for a certain group of depicted individuals indicate sexual interest in that group. Contrary to the general assumption that the picture content accounts for this effect by eliciting affect- or attention-based response delays, we hypothesized that the attractiveness rating task might be responsible for the VT effect. To test this hypothesis, we used two different tasks. Our heterosexual and homosexual male participants (N = 50) were instructed to rate the attractiveness or the sex of the depicted individuals. As expected, VT effects only emerged in attractiveness rating trials. Based on these findings, we conclude that VT effects are task dependent and are unlikely to be caused by affective or attentional processes (at least when participants are instructed to rate the attractiveness of target stimuli). We argue that rating tasks in VT measures cause participants to use affect independent response strategies. These response strategies seem to undermine stimulus-driven processes (like increased attention directed toward salient stimuli) which were thought to cause VT effects according to previous hypotheses.