FEAR,ANGER, AND CREDIT. ON BANK ROBBERIES AND LOAN CONDITIONS

We study the impact of emotions on real-world decisions made by loan officers by analyzing the loan conditions of loans granted immediately after a bank branch robbery. We find significant differences between the conditions of loans granted after a robbery and changes in loan conditions that occur contemporaneously at unaffected branches. In general, loan officers seem to adopt so-called avoidance behavior. In accordance with the literature on posttraumatic stress, their avoidance behavior is halved within 2 weeks following the robbery and the effect further varies depending on the presence, or absence, of a firearm during the robbery. (JEL G02, G2)     

Bayesian sample size determination for phase IIA clinical trials using historical data and semi‐parametric prior's elicitation

The Simon's two‐stage design is the most commonly applied among multi‐stage designs in phase IIA clinical trials. It combines the sample sizes at the two stages in order to minimize either the expected or the maximum sample size. When the uncertainty about pre‐trial beliefs on the expected or desired response rate is high, a Bayesian alternative should be considered since it allows to deal with the entire distribution of the parameter of interest in a more natural way. In this setting, a crucial issue is how to construct a distribution from the available summaries to use as a clinical prior in a Bayesian design. In this work, we explore the Bayesian counterparts of the Simon's two‐stage design based on the predictive version of the single threshold design. This design requires specifying two prior distributions: the analysis prior, which is used to compute the posterior probabilities, and the design prior, which is employed to obtain the prior predictive distribution. While the usual approach is to build beta priors for carrying out a conjugate analysis, we derived both the analysis and the design distributions through linear combinations of B‐splines. The motivating example is the planning of the phase IIA two‐stage trial on anti‐HER2 DNA vaccine in breast cancer, where initial beliefs formed from elicited experts' opinions and historical data showed a high level of uncertainty. In a sample size determination problem, the impact of different priors is evaluated.     

Measurement Assessment in Cross-Country Comparative Analysis: Rasch Modelling on a Measure of Institutional Quality

This paper uses recent multidimensional well-being measurements to examine multidimensional well-being and inequality across the European regions in 2000 and 2014 with the use of eleven well-being indicators from the OECD Better Life Index. We use generalized mean aggregation method with alternative parameters to allow different substitutability and complementarity levels between well-being dimensions, which range between perfect substitutability and some degree of complementarity between the dimensions, to examine well-being and inequality across the European regions. Accounting for the interactions between the well-being dimensions matters for the multidimensional well-being and inequality across the European regions. The results show that the multidimensional well-being across the European regions are relatively lower when the dimensions are more seen as complements compared to the case when they are considered to be perfect substitutes. Furthermore, there is also a higher degree of multidimensional inequality across the European regions when the dimensions are considered to have some complementarity. Changes in well-being dimensions between 2000 and 2014 indicates that multidimensional well-being improved and inequality decreased in the personal and community well-being categories, but remained unchanged in material well-being category across the European regions irrespective of interaction levels between well-being dimensions. Policy implications of these multidimensional well-being indices are also evaluated by using these indices to determine the eligible regions for the European Union structural funds where the number eligible regions shows some variation depending on whether the dimensions are perfect substitutes or more of complements.

     

Norms,status and the dynamics of advice networks: A case study

The issue of the influence of norms on behavior is as old as sociology itself. This paper explores the effect of normative homophily (i.e. “sharing the same normative choices”) on the evolution of the advice network among lay judges in a courthouse. 0020 and 0025 social exchange theory suggests that members select advisors based on the status of the advisor. Additional research shows that members of an organization use similarities with others in ascribed, achieved or inherited characteristics, as well as other kinds of ties, to mitigate the potentially negative effects of this strong status rule. We elaborate and test these theories using data on advisor choice in the Commercial Court of Paris. We use a jurisprudential case about unfair competition (material and “moral” damages), a case that we submitted to all the judges of this court, to test the effect of normative homophily on the selection of advisors, controlling for status effects. Normative homophily is measured by the extent to which two judges are equally “punitive” in awarding damages to plaintiffs. Statistical analyses combine longitudinal advice network data collected among the judges with their normative dispositions. Contrary to what could be expected from conventional sociological theories, we find no pure effect of normative homophily on the choice of advisors. In this case, therefore, sharing the same norms and values does not have, by itself, a mitigating effect and does not contribute to the evolution of the network. We argue that status effects, conformity and alignments on positions of opinion leaders in controversies still provide the best insights into the relationship between norms, structure and behavior.     

Attitudes of Heterosexual Men and Women Toward HIV Negative and Positive Gay Men

Attitudes of Italian heterosexual men and women toward gay men, both HIV positive and negative, are poorly investigated. Italian culture is still extremely conservative and provides limited support to the gay community (e.g., lack of same-sex marriage recognition). Consequently, gay men experience social exclusion and disparities. The present study explores the association between homophobia and closeness with sexual orientation and HIV status. 261 heterosexual Italian men and women were assessed for feelings of closeness and homophobia after reading a vignette where the character was C1: heterosexual and HIV negative; C2: gay and HIV negative; or C3: gay and HIV positive. Experiences of homophobia and closeness varied depending on gender of participant and condition assigned, and higher levels of homophobia were correlated with lower levels of closeness regardless of HIV status. Implications and future directions are discussed.     

The Pointing–Vocal Coupling Progression in the First Half of the Second Year of Life

This study investigated the development of the pointing–vocal coupling system. We were interested in the infants’ behavior to attune prosody with pointing intentions. Twenty‐five children were involved at 12, 15, and 18 months of age in an experimental procedure devised to elicit imperative and declarative pointing. Pointing, vocality associated with pointing, and the prosody of that vocality were analyzed. A significant increase in the coupling of pointing and vocality was observed from 12 to 15 months, and in the ability to differentiate prosody with respect to the intention of the gesture from 15 to 18 months. Also, the infants who pointed declaratively at 12 months were likely to couple declarative pointing with vocality at 15 months, and the infants who coupled at 15 months were likely to differentiate prosody by the pointing intention at 18 months. Results suggest that the match between prosody and pointing intentions emerges gradually during the first half of the second year of life. They also show a relationship between earlier and later pointing–vocal coupling, and a role for declarative communication in promoting that progression. Overall, our study supports the view of intentional communication as a time‐based and context‐based developmental process.     

Absenteeism and peer interaction effects: Evidence from an Italian Public Institute

Using microdata for a sample of about 350 workers employed by an Italian public institute, we explain individual absence rates considering both variables that may be related to health conditions and variables that may suggest shirking behaviour. Among these variables we especially focus our attention on the influence produced by the behaviour of randomly assigned peers. In order to handle reflection problems, we combine random assignment with the use of instrumental variables. The proportion of females in the peer group is used as an instrument of peer absence behaviour. From Two-Stage Least Square estimates it emerges that social and group interaction plays an important role in shaping individual absence behaviour.     

AGING,RETIREMENT AND SOCIAL SECURITY IN A MODEL OF INTEREST GROUPS

The assessment of the degree of genetic variation in a natural population, and the nature of that variation, is of central importance in both theoretical and applied population studies. Two “variance” results in population genetics theory are presented. For the first, expressions are found for the expected difference in the estimates of genetic variation in a population obtained by two investigators sampling from the same population in the same generation. The second result concerns the question of whether the degree of genetic variation in a population is best estimated by using the number of alleles observed in a sample of genes or by the number of polymorphic sites observed in the sample. For some combinations of the actual degree of variation and the sample size the former is preferred while for other combinations the latter is preferred. The reason for this is discussed.