On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

丹巴土司制度发展历史考证

丹巴位于“藏彝走廊”的核心区域，其对汉藏民族关系、中央政权与边疆地区的稳定均具有重要影响。自忽必烈时期开始丹巴即开始实行土司制度直至新中国成立，研究丹巴的土司制度发展历史对梳理“藏彝走廊”民族关系及社会发展历史具有重要作用。本文对丹巴土司制度的发展历史进行了考证，并对其境内的四个土司的管辖范围、权力地位进行了梳理，以期对该地区历史发展研究提供一些参考与借鉴。     

基于航空竞争视角的高铁客票动态定价分析

高铁固定的定价方式是制约获得更高利润的因素,面对航空动态定价机制,高铁科学、合理的定价策略是破解盈利不足的关键.在现行机制下,构建Hotelling模型,分析高铁静态定价和航空动态定价、高铁和航空同时动态定价的均衡,比较实施高铁静态定价和动态定价的收益.研究结果表明,高铁实行动态定价能增加收益.     

数字媒介视域下的文化记忆研究

文化记忆媒介经历多次嬗变,从口述媒介、书写媒介、印刷媒介到当下的数字媒介。媒介嬗变为文化记忆当下化提供了基本的结构框架,尤其是数字媒介,对文化记忆的储存、传播和表现产生了诸多新影响。首先,它极大地提升了文化记忆的储存能力,也产生了“数字黑暗时代”问题;其次,它有利于传播个体关于文化记忆的观点和评价,放大了各群体间关于文化记忆的认知差异,改变了文化记忆的水平传播和垂直传播;最后,它为文化记忆的表现带来了非线性叙事,产生了超文本和超作者,并为文化记忆文本提供了互文性链接,提高了多叙事主体间互动频率。不仅如此,数字媒介的影响还延展至文化记忆的代际延续和集体认同领域。     

Palm snags are a critical nesting resource for woodpeckers in an urbanized tropical region

Urban Ecosystems - Critical resources for birds nesting in cities can support populations in spite of the challenges imposed by urbanization, and the identification of such resources can shed light...     

我国互联网保险发展现状、风险及防范对策

互联网保险凭借保险理念创新、商业模式创新、产品创新和渠道创新重塑保险产业核心竞争力。传统保险互联网化转型过程中将面临一系列风险,需要从法律体制建设、技术创新与研发,以及监管模式创新等方面完善互联网保险发展的应对策略。     

电视综艺栏目中的植入式广告研究

植入式广告与硬广告相对,由于较好地规避了受众对广告的排斥心理,到达率高,从而受到各方青睐。以湖南卫视综艺栏目中的植入式广告为研究内容,在分析其现状的基础上指出综艺栏目中的植入式广告应不断寻求创新方式、增强趣味性、积极与受众互动、抓住植入的关键时机等策略,使电视栏目与广告主获得双赢。     

The Absolute Difference Law For Expectations

We revisit the addition law for expectations and present a sibling law: the absolute law for expectations. We show that these two laws and their corresponding laws for probabilities can be reconciled under a single framework. As an application, we use the absolute law for expectations to calculate the mean absolute deviation. Finally, we remark on a hidden point in a related article previously published on these pages; this will help readers to avoid a potential pitfall.