Inferactive data analysis

We describe inferactive data analysis, so-named to denote an interactive approach to data analysis with an emphasis on inference after data analysis. Our approach is a compromise between Tukey's exploratory and confirmatory data analysis allowing also for Bayesian data analysis. We see this as a useful step in concrete providing tools (with statistical guarantees) for current data scientists. The basis of inference we use is (a conditional approach to) selective inference, in particular its randomized form. The relevant reference distributions are constructed from what we call a DAG-DAG—a Data Analysis Generative DAG, and a selective change of variables formula is crucial to any practical implementation of inferactive data analysis via sampling these distributions. We discuss a canonical example of an incomplete cross-validation test statistic to discriminate between black box models, and a real HIV dataset example to illustrate inference after making multiple queries on data.     

Cultural Contributors to Ego‐Resiliency and Associations with Depressive Problems in Midwestern Latino Youth

Ego‐resiliency is an enduring psychological construct reflecting how individuals‐adapt to environmental stressors, conflict, and change which is linked to positive adjustment. Ego‐resiliency has not been examined in Latino youth, despite their high risk for mental health problems; nor have cultural precursors to ego‐resiliency been examined. Given these gaps, we examined whether familism values (supportive, obligation, and referent) were associated with ego‐resiliency and, in turn, depressive problems in Latino adolescents across two time points (N = 123, mean age = 11.53). Results indicated that supportive familism was associated positively with ego‐resiliency and negatively with depressive problems. Ego‐resiliency negatively predicted depressive problems across time, controlling for prior levels, suggesting that ego‐resiliency may have long‐term effects on depressive problems in Latino youth.     

Fiddling while the planet burns? COP25 in perspective

ABSTRACT

With fires, storms, social protests, and climate strikes sweeping the world, 2019 should have been a tipping point in how the world responds to global heating. This was the backdrop to the COP25 climate change summit which took place in Madrid in December 2019. This paper assesses the outcomes of the meeting and the path towards the critically important meeting in Glasgow at the end of 2020. It analyses and explains the key points of contention over levels of ambition, the rules which should govern global carbon markets and sensitive issues such as loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change. The analysis is situated within a broader geopolitical and economic context of right-wing populism, deepening forms of marketization and financialization of responses to climate change and against a background of a world increasingly feeling the effects of the climate crisis.     

Mapping Right-Wing Women’s Policy Priorities in Latin America

ABSTRACT

Do right-wing women hold unique policy priorities from that of left-wing women and right-wing men? And do right-wing women legislators represent the priorities of right-wing citizens? Right-wing women share unique gendered socialization experiences with left-wing women, but their ideology informs values and attitudes critical to policy preference formation. Political representation theories suggest that women legislators should hold distinct incentives to represent female constituents. However, institutional theories suggest right-wing women legislators may face different incentives that limit the extent to which they represent right-wing female constituents. To evaluate our expectations, we leverage survey data from the Latin American Public Opinion Project and the Parliamentary Elites of Latin America. We demonstrate how right-wing women citizens differ from left-wing women citizens across a range of policy priorities. Then, we evaluate elite priorities for these same policy issues. We find little evidence for policy priority congruency between women citizens and women legislators on the right.     

KIDS OR CASH? EXPLORING CHARTER SCHOOL RESPONSES TO DECLINING GOVERNMENT REVENUES

While the literature is extensive on school districts' revenue sources, less research has been done on the impact of donations on school district funds. In this paper, we extend the theoretical literature on crowding out of private donations by government grants for one type of nonprofit firm, namely charter schools. The theoretical model leads us to focus on the key relationships among fundraising effort, enrollment (which is tied to federal and state funding) and donations. Using a dataset on Texas charter schools we adopt a two-stage approach to examine the empirical relationship between changes in nondonor revenues and the donations received by charter schools. Like the extensive empirical estimates of the effects of government grants on donations for other types of nonprofit firms, we find evidence of crowding-out with respect to our sample of charter schools. We also find a significant, positive effect of fundraising on donations with a $1 increase in fundraising associated to a $0.58 increase in donations, a pattern consistent with overinvestment in fundraising. Enrollments exhibit a robust inverse relationship to changes in nondonor revenues. (JEL H00, H32, H50)     

Global product development projects: measuring performance and monitoring the risks

Abstract

This article investigates the development and application of key performance indicators for global product development. Two in-depth, longitudinal case studies with multinational Danish manufacturing companies were conducted, and highlight how key performance indicators, typically used for collocated, cross-functional product development, do not provide the predictive insight required to avoid the additional risks encountered in the global product development environment. Grounded in the case study results and building on established methodologies in performance measurement literature, a framework was developed and validated in two additional Danish companies to support project managers to develop: preventive indicators, which support the avoidance of identified risks, and outcome indicators, which support the measurement towards the attainment of project objectives. The study is unique as it is one of the very few longitudinal studies of engineering design activities in a global context, providing the in-depth contextual understanding towards key risks and their influence on performance; an important step to support researchers and practitioners with the development of preventive measures.     

Demographic Comparison of American Individuals in Polyamorous and Monogamous Relationships

Research on polyamorous relationships has increased substantially over the past decade. This work has documented how polyamory is practiced and why individuals might pursue such arrangements. However, there is a lack of a systematic investigation of who is in polyamorous relationships and how they might differ from individuals in monogamous relationships. The present study is one of the first to address this by comparing the demographic backgrounds of individuals in polyamorous (N = 2,428) and monogamous (N = 539) relationships in the United States. Compared to participants in monogamous relationships, those in polyamorous relationships were more likely to report minority sexual identities. Despite similar age distributions, individuals in polyamorous relationships were more likely to report being in a civil union, being divorced, and earning less than $40,000 per year compared to individuals in monogamous relationships. People in polyamorous relationships were also more likely to select “other” options for most demographic characteristics, suggesting that they tend to choose less traditional response options in general. The current research highlights several demographic differences that need to be considered and potentially controlled for in future comparisons of polyamorous and monogamous relationships.     

Implementing a college mental health program – an overview of the first twelve months

Objective: To evaluate the demographics and clinical utilization patterns among college students during the initial 12 months of a novel, multi-disciplinary, collaborative, college mental health program (CMHP). Participants: Undergraduate and graduate students receiving treatment at the CMHP from Jan-Dec 2015. Methods: De-identified data was obtained via electronic health records for all students receiving care through the CMHP. Results: 1.2 FTE clinical providers treated 278 undergraduate and graduate students during the year (65.1% < age 26, 53.6% female, 49.6% caucasian). There were 1822 CMHP outpatient visits, 318 other medical visits and 103 total emergency room (ER)/inpatient visits. Ten students were identified as high utilizers of ER/inpatient services, while charges to the CMHP totaled $470,157 and total charges to the Health System were $2,378,315. Conclusions: Students with complex psychiatric/medical co-morbidities received cost effective, convenient and integrative treatment. Over time, we hope to intervene earlier and decrease ER/inpatient visits.     

Teaching Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder to Report Past Behavior With the Use of a Speech-Generating Device

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior -