On a class exhibiting trend change in average failure rate

Abstract

Weak convergence and moment convergence issues are investigated for the New Better than Average Failure Rate (NBAFR) family (introduced by Loh (1984 Loh, W. Y. 1984. A new generalization of the class of NBU distributions. IEEE Transactions on Reliability R-33 :97–113[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])). We explore the validity of these results in the context of a more general ageing class that we introduce. We prove some new properties of this class and derive its interrelationships with other non-monotonic ageing families. Reliability and moment bounds are obtained and an interesting characterization of exponentiality is proved. Special cases of our results lead to new theorems for the NBAFR class. Finally weak convergence and related issues are established for this class.     

从教育理念的视角解读高等教育大众化

高等教育大众化过程中出现了一系列令人深思的问题,教育理念的陈旧是其中一个重要原因。因此,变革教育理念是适应高等教育大众化发展的迫切要求。本文论述了高等教育大众化进程中转变教育理念的初步设想及其现实意义。     

文化身份认同危机与异化——论查建英的《到美国去!到美国去!》

不同于上几代老移民作家,也有异于同时代的一些新移民作家,作为20世纪80年代的新移民作家代表,美籍华人查建英致力于描写北美华裔所面临的文化和性别冲突.她徘徊于中西文化之间,体会着"边缘化"的状态,其作品《到美国去!到美国去!》透视了"边缘人"的生存和心理状态,反映出人物在中/西矛盾对立中特殊的充满悖论式的生存困境,揭示了新移民难以逃遁的文化身份认同危机和异化等问题,以及在身份认同危机和异化中所追求的一种自我放逐的自由.     

Wer das Stabilisieren vergisst: Warum eine schöne Abschlusspräsentation noch kein gutes Ende bedeutet

Many organizational change projects fail — despite a well thought out concept, professional project management and a binding implementation timetable. The reason why the expected success doesn’t materialize often lies with the missing maintenance. Once the project is officially completed and the client and project manager withdraw, the manner in which the organization will take up these changes is seldom systematically dealt with. Difficulties often arise when no discrete stabilizing measures are planned. We have derived four central action areas which will be clarified by way of practical examples. It will also be shown what is important to pay attention to in the stabilization phase so that a lasting success of the organizational change project can be ensured.     

抗战初期国共两党在山西合作的历史经验

抗战初期,国共两党在抗日战争这一特定的历史条件下,实现了比较密切的合作。在山西,中国共产党和国民党地方实力派阎锡山在双方合作的基础上,形成了具有山西特色的特殊形式的统一战线,中国共产党实行正确的方针政策,使党能够利用这些合法组织,不断壮大抗日革命力量,争取和团结了一切可以团结的抗日进步势力,开创了山西抗战的新局面。     

梁启超的法律思想新探

梁启超是中国近代史上一位著名的思想家 ,他的法律思想 ,不仅以变法维新为主要内容 ,提倡“德治”、正确处理好“法治”与“德治”的关系、主张宪政、强调在法律规定范围内的自由等 ,也是梁启超法律思想的重要内容     

跳跃式经济发展模式探讨

根据新兴古典经济学的分工理论和新制度学派的理论工具 ,论述了跳跃式经济发展的两种大推进工业化模式 ,以及由制度结构变迁引发的跳跃式经济发展模式 ,提出了加快科技创新、扩大人力资本投资、发展信息产业和高科技产业等实现路径     

转型期实现内外均衡的政策搭配研究

中国在入世后的10年左右 ,正处于转型经济中。应该通过调节社会总需求、社会总供给等政策工具 ,实现合理搭配 ,以达到中国宏观经济的内外均衡     

Detecting parameter shift in garch models

This paper applies recent theories of testing for parameter constancy to the conditional variance in a GARCH model. The supremum Lagrange multiplier test for conditional Gaussian GARCH models and its robustified variants are discussed. The asymptotic null distribution of the test statistics are derived from the weak convergence of the scores, and the critical values from the hitting probability of squared Bessel process.

Monte Carlo studies on the finite sample size and power performance of the supremum LM tests are conducted. Applications of these tests to S&P 500 indicate that the hypothesis of stable conditional variance parameters can be rejected.     

A construal level analysis of organizational change processes

To effectively manage planned change and understand differences in leaders’ and recipients’ responses to it, it is essential to understand how change is cognitively represented by organization members. In this theory-development article, we draw upon construal-level theory (CLT) and conceptually explore the role of change construal level in explaining responses to organizational change. We discuss differences between change leaders’ and recipients’ change construals, and differences in the relationships between change construal level and the response to change as a function of the change activities taking place. Specifically, we argue that high-level (i.e., abstract) construals of change will facilitate the effective initiation of change when the focus is on equilibrium-breaking activities, and that low-level (i.e., concrete) construals will facilitate the effective implementation of change when the focus is on institutionalization of the change. We further propose that leaders’ engagement in visionary leadership increases the likelihood that their generally higher level construal of change will be integrated into recipients’ change construals, elaborating and elevating them, and that recipients’ engagement in upward prohibitive voice behaviors will increase the likelihood that their generally lower construal of change will be integrated into leaders’ change construals, elaborating and concretizing them. We discuss theoretical and practical implications of our framework.