腔内电光调制激光系统的混沌模拟

采用数值模拟的方法讨论了带反馈的腔內电光调制激光系统功率输出的分叉和混沌行为,得到了输出功率随控制参数变化的分叉图,和一些定量结果。     

股票市场状态的动力学过程分析

就股票市场呈现的变化归纳为四种状态,即随机游走态、扩散漂移态、混沌震荡态、连贯平稳态,并对每一状态给出了动力学过程的数学描述,研究了各种"过程"下方程的解,以及各种状态下对股市价格带来的系统效应.从股市的微观结构出发,探讨了四种状态下的股市特征表现及投资者的操作策略,为实时地预测股市发展提供了辅助决策.     

经济物理学的创立及其引发的思考

阐述了经济物理学创立的历史必然性及其内涵,分析了在经济学研究中成功地应用物理学理论而创立经济物理学的八个方面知识滋生点,以及经济物理学的兴起给予人们的启示,以期在高等教育中推崇＂通识教育＂,倡导学科交叉。     

延迟决策对一类产出系统演化的影响研究

企业作为有限理性的经济主体,在做下阶段的生产决策时可能不仅考虑本期而是要综合考虑以往连续多期的边际利润情况。研究表明,加入时滞以后,系统纳什平衡点的稳定域明显扩大,从而为在混沌经济系统中实现倍周期分岔控制提供了现实途径,同时,还会使系统在纳什平衡点出现hopf分岔等新的动力学演化行为。而且,以累积利润为指标的系统表现可以得到改善。首先引入延迟决策的企业将获得更大的相对竞争优势。而在两家企业都引入延迟决策的情况下,伴随第二家企业产量调整速度的增加,它们将交替获得竞争优势。     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

证券市场流动性与交易者群体变动的混沌研究

从证券市场微观结构角度,利用交易者群体可变的动态模型,分别在确定与不确定性金 融环境下,研究离散交易状态下市场的形成过程,并分析了交易者群体变动的混沌条件. 结果 表明,市场流动性的最低标准是买卖双方的交易者群体要有一个恰当的比例,市场达到稳定流 动性的时间与描述离开股市交易者的参数有关,通过交易制度对交易者群体参数的影响,可实 现对市场过程的控制,最后给出仿真计算.     

光学湍流中的滞后現象

本文以延时反馈光电混合型光学双稳装置为例,在先前他人工作的基础上,给出了下列光学湍流中的新的结果:在适当选择系统增益情况下,原有双稳区可能分裂为三个,以及延时算子的高阶影响,特别是在实验上首次观察到了分岔点的滞后现象.     

The Statistics of Simulating Chaos

When simulating a dynamical system, the computation is actually of a spatially discretized system, because finite machine arithmetic replaces continuum state space. For chaotic dynamical systems, the discretized simulations often have collapsing effects, to a fixed point or to short cycles. Statistical properties of these phenomena can be modelled with random mappings with an absorbing centre. The model gives results which are very much in line with computational experiments. The effects are discussed with special reference to the family of mappings f (x)=1-|1-2x|,x [0,1],1,<,,<,. Computer experiments show close agreement with predictions of the model.     

论伯顿·克拉克在《高等教育系统》中对混沌理论的运用

文章通过分析混沌理论在伯顿·克拉克<高等教育系统一学术组织的跨国研究>一书中的运用,认为其关于高等教育系统的中层结构的阐述存在不足,并试运用混沌理论对中层结构在高等教育系统中的有序和无序进行补充分析.     

受迫Duffing振子浑沌运动的控制

本文研究了受迫Duffing振子产生浑沌运动时的控制问题，通过周期激振力、参数激扰、自适应控制和连续反馈控制来抑制和控制其中的浑沌运动，使系统从浑沌运动状态转变到规则运动状态．数值分析表明，在适当的控制信号作用下，受迫Duffing振子中的浑沌运动得到了很好的控制．