The Joint Distribution of the Sum and the Maximum of IID Exponential Random Variables

The authors establish the joint distribution of the sum X and the maximum Y of IID exponential random variables. They derive exact formuli describing the random vector (X, Y), including its joint PDF, CDF, and other characteristics; marginal and conditional distributions; moments and related parameters; and stochastic representations leading to further properties of infinite divisibility and self-decomposability. The authors also discuss parameter estimation and include an example from climatology that illustrates the modeling potential of this new bivariate model.     

通辽市近45年农业水资源变化分析

分析了通辽市近４５ 年降水、潜在蒸散及农田水分盈亏的变化，结果表明：年降水量在周期变化中具有减小的趋势，年降水量的稳定性增加，潜在蒸散波动上升。本世纪６０ 年代以来，春旱有所缓减，秋旱有所加剧     

台湾北部多雨析由

本文从地理位置、大气环流、洋流、台风和下垫面性质等方面对台湾北部地区多雨景观的形成进行了分析，尤其以电力站群对小气候形成的影响．类比论证了台湾北部的有强烈水热活动的下垫面在这一景观形成中所起的作用。     

A non-homogeneous hidden Markov model for precipitation occurrence

A non-homogeneous hidden Markov model is proposed for relating precipitation occurrences at multiple rain-gauge stations to broad scale atmospheric circulation patterns (the so-called 'downscaling problem'). We model a 15-year sequence of winter data from 30 rain stations in south-western Australia. The first 10 years of data are used for model development and the remaining 5 years are used for model evaluation. The fitted model accurately reproduces the observed rainfall statistics in the reserved data despite a shift in atmospheric circulation (and, consequently, rainfall) between the two periods. The fitted model also provides some useful insights into the processes driving rainfall in this region.