Drug resistance in an age-of-infection model

ABSTRACT

In the case of a disease spreading over a time-scale comparable to the average lifetime in a host population, when the infectiousness of individuals depends on the tine since the onset of infection and when infections involve both drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains of a pathogen, resistance may develop during the treatment of drug-sensitive strains. If increasing the treatment rate reduces the reproduction number of the drug-sensitive strain to a value below the reproduction number of the drug-resistant strain, then the disease may persist at a boundary equilibrium where only drug-resistant infection is present.     

Retrospective change detection in categorical time series

The aim of this paper is to propose methods of detecting change in the coefficients of a multinomial logistic regression model for categorical time series offline. The alternatives to the null hypothesis of stationarity can be either the hypothesis that it is not true, or that there is a temporary change in the sequence. We use the efficient score vector of the partial likelihood function. This has several advantages. First, the alternative value of the parameter does not have to be estimated; hence, we have a procedure that has a simple structure with only one parameter estimation using all available observations. This is in contrast with the generalized likelihood ratio-based change point tests. The efficient score vector is used in various ways. As a vector, its components correspond to the different components of the multinomial logistic regression model’s parameter vector. Using its quadratic form a test can be defined, where the presence of a change in any or all parameters is tested for. If there are too many parameters one can test for any subset while treating the rest as nuisance parameters. Our motivating example is a DNA sequence of four categories, and our test result shows that in the published data the distribution of the four categories is not stationary.     

习近平关于人民健康重要论述的思想内涵与实践价值研究

人民健康是人民福祉之本、强国建设之基。习近平关于人民健康重要论述基于“健康中国”战略和全面建成小康社会的 时代背景下，针对突发公共卫生事件应急管理能力滞后以及传染病等问题，系统阐述了习近平把人民群众生命安全和身体健 康放在第一位；以人民为中心，以健康为根本的思想；大卫生、大健康新理念；人民健康是最大的生产力；人民健康是全面的健 康以及习近平关于新冠肺炎防控的思想内涵。通过研究习近平关于人民健康重要论述的实践价值，有利于推进国家治理体系 和治理能力现代化，更好地应对国内出现的重大疫情，实现“健康中国2030”战略，维护国家安宁与国际稳定，更好地体现中国 防疫经验的世界意义。     

Overcoming the ‘tyranny of the urgent’: integrating gender into disease outbreak preparedness and response

ABSTRACT

This article contributes to discussions on the gender dimensions of disease outbreaks, and preparedness policies and responses, by providing a multi-level analysis of gender-related gaps, particularly illustrating how the failure to challenge gender assumptions and incorporate gender as a priority at the global level has national and local impacts. The implications of neglecting gender dynamics, as well as the potential of equity-based approaches to disease outbreak responses, is illustrated through a case study of the Social Enterprise Network for Development (SEND) Sierra Leone, a non-government organisation (NGO) based in Kailahun, during the Ebola outbreak.     

Bayesian penalized B-spline estimation approach for epidemic models

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are normally used to model dynamic processes in applied sciences such as biology, engineering, physics, and many other areas. In these models, the parameters are usually unknown, and thus they are often specified artificially or empirically. Alternatively, a feasible method is to estimate the parameters based on observed data. In this study, we propose a Bayesian penalized B-spline approach to estimate the parameters and initial values for ODEs used in epidemiology. We evaluated the efficiency of the proposed method based on simulations using the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the Kermack–McKendrick model. The proposed approach is also illustrated based on a real application to the transmission dynamics of hepatitis C virus in mainland China.     

区块链赋能灾疫治理的价值逻辑、实践路径及其伦理反思

近年来,作为新型网络底层架构技术的区块链已经开始应用于社会治理领域,为国家治理能力现代化提供了新的着力点。人类面对灾疫的实践活动既是社会非常状态下的治理活动,又是道德意志驱动的伦理实践。区块链技术因其具有多维价值特征与灾疫治理的伦理目标高度契合,有望为现有灾疫治理体系进行赋能。同时,作为一项新兴的技术手段和灾疫治理架构,区块链赋能灾疫治理的伦理风险在于其可能超越了治理活动的边界。因此,需要警惕区块链技术对灾疫治理可能存在的价值偏离。     

宋代江南地区疾疫成因分析

现代医学认为流行病是由各种生物性致病原或称为病原体所引起的一组具有强烈传染性的疾病.而从传统医学角度而言,所谓流行病是指具有温热病性质的急性传染病,属温热病中具有强烈传染性、病情危重凶险并具有大流行特征的一类疾病.在古代文献中,一般称之为疲、疾疲、瘥、札、疠等.宋人也大体承袭了这一提法.通常情况下,疫病与流行病无法确切区分,因此,统称流行病为疾疫或瘟疫.宋代江南地区是流行病的多发区.这大概与江南地区水网密布,气候温湿、人口密集、人员流动频繁、经济较为活跃易于细菌病毒繁殖有关.     

清末奉天万国鼠疫研究会考论

奉天万国鼠疫研究会是在清政府应对1910年末到1911年初东北三省鼠疫过程中,认识到亟须向国外学习先进的防控经验的前提下召开的。会议由中国倡议并主办,共有来自12个国家的34位正式代表参加。从1911年4月3日（三月初五日）至4月28日（三月三十日）在奉天（今沈阳）召开,其间共举行大会24次,形成决议45项,确定了许多国际通行的防疫准则,为此后的国际防疫合作奠定了基础;同时,这次国际会议也大大推动了中国近代公共防疫事业的发展。奉天万国鼠疫研究会是由清政府主办的中国近代史上第一次国际学术会议。     

祈愿类俗赋举要(一)

俗赋除了具有铺写、用韵、虚拟等赋体特征之外,又兼有浅近、诙谐、实用等的俗文学性质。依俗赋的特质,可将其分为祈愿、诙谐、故事寓言、隐语、认知、铺叙、论辩等类。祈愿类俗赋有驱傩辞、上梁文、撒帐辞等民俗应用文。祈愿类的俗赋含有基层民众的生活愿望,表现出铺排的文学效果,兼具有民俗研究与文学欣赏的价值。     

慢直播的互动仪式建构与融合传播

新媒体疫情慢直播通过虚拟的身体在场,共同的关注焦点以及受众共同的情绪、情感基础,建构起互动仪式.受众在这种互动仪式中,形成对"云监工"等群体身份的认同,创造和共享符号资本,并获得抗疫信心等情感能量回报.新媒体疫情慢直播活动中,形成的情感传播模式及其收编兼纳青年亚文化的行为对主流媒体的融合传播具有借鉴意义.