Women’s mobility and ‘transport-related social exclusion’ in Bishkek

This paper analyses gendered mobilities in Bishkek in the space of the most popular form of public transport: the minibus, or ‘marshrutka’. As the means by which women often access various important sites of daily life, the marshrutka itself is a site of negotiation and interaction. Utilizing theories of mobility and empirical data, we argue that marshrutkas are spaces that can give rise to two dichotomous conditions: positive marshrutka experiences may increase the social mobility of female passengers and subsequently increase social empowerment and influence, while negative ones can provide the grounds for social exclusion and gender inequality.     

Impact of older adults' mobility and social participation on life satisfaction in South Korea

South Korea has been experiencing rapid population aging. In an aging society, the need for healthy lives is greater. Two of the fundamental factors to enable independent and active life for the elderly are mobility and social participation. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between older adults’ mobility, social participation, and quality of life in South Korea. We used data from the 2017 National Survey of Older Koreans conducted by the Ministry of Health and Welfare and the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs and applied hierarchical regression. The major finding was that older adults’ mobility had a positive impact on their life satisfaction. After controlling for older adults’ mobility, social participation was positively associated with life satisfaction regardless of the place of residence. The findings of this study not only make a valuable contribution to further research on mobility and social participation but also provide new insight into improving older adults’ quality of life.     

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Estimating household structure in ancient China by using historical data: a latent class analysis of partially missing patterns

Summary.  Social data often contain missing information. The problem is inevitably severe when analysing historical data. Conventionally, researchers analyse complete records only. Listwise deletion not only reduces the effective sample size but also may result in biased estimation, depending on the missingness mechanism. We analyse household types by using population registers from ancient China (618–907 AD) by comparing a simple classification, a latent class model of the complete data and a latent class model of the complete and partially missing data assuming four types of ignorable and non-ignorable missingness mechanisms. The findings show that either a frequency classification or a latent class analysis using the complete records only yielded biased estimates and incorrect conclusions in the presence of partially missing data of a non-ignorable mechanism. Although simply assuming ignorable or non-ignorable missing data produced consistently similarly higher estimates of the proportion of complex households, a specification of the relationship between the latent variable and the degree of missingness by a row effect uniform association model helped to capture the missingness mechanism better and improved the model fit.     

一种求解双目标线性规划的方法及其在上海市土地使用和交通方面的应用

本文介绍了一种求解双目标线性规划(SBLP)的方法.根据上海市土地使用与交通的现状建立了一个拟动态的模型(BOLT),并用该方法加以求解。根据得到的解对上海市土地使用与交通相互作用的情况进行了分析。     

老年人照顾体系的建立及其法律完善

人口老龄化是一种全球性发展趋势,中国也不例外。我国必须在构建老年社会养老保障体系的同时构建老年照顾体系。本文分析了我国老年人照顾需求的现状和老年照顾问题在家庭养老和社会养老方面的严峻性。根据实际情况,探索并构建适合我国国情的老年照顾体系。同时,对立法中需要确立的指导思想、资金来源、照顾主体、具体照顾服务制度以及相关法律责任等提出建议,为老年人照顾的长期顺利实施提供法律依据。     

经济全球化影响下的中国计划生育发展趋势

中国的计划生育是在计划经济体制下形成的,其特点多数与经济全球化的规则有着较大的差距。因此,经济全球化和中国加入世贸组织对中国计划生育的影响是全面而深刻的。在经济全球化的影响下,中国计划生育的发展趋势主要体现在六个方面。     

An individual measure of relative survival

Summary.  Relative survival techniques are used to compare survival experience in a study cohort with that expected if background population rates apply. The techniques are especially useful when cause-specific death information is not accurate or not available as they provide a measure of excess mortality in a group of patients with a certain disease. Whereas these methods are based on group comparisons, we present here a transformation approach which instead gives for each individual an outcome measure relative to the appropriate background population. The new outcome measure is easily interpreted and can be analysed by using standard survival analysis techniques. It provides additional information on relative survival and gives new options in regression analysis. For example, one can estimate the proportion of patients who survived longer than a given percentile of the respective general population or compare survival experience of individuals while accounting for the population differences. The regression models for the new outcome measure are different from existing models, thus providing new possibilities in analysing relative survival data. One distinctive feature of our approach is that we adjust for expected survival before modelling. The paper is motivated by a study into the survival of patients after acute myocardial infarction.     

从职业流动看失业阻滞与再就业机制

从职业流动视角来看 ,失业具有无流动性、下向流动性和被迫性 ;失业阻滞在于职业流动的规模不大 ,制度约束性太强和观念滞后 ;再就业具有上向流动性和主动性 ;再就业机制是一个由经济驱动机制、制度改革机制、就业观念转变机制和劳动力自由流动机制构成的综合性、动态性结构体系。     

云南女性人口发展状况概述

作者从人口学的角度，以人口普查资料为依据，对建国以来云南女性人口的数量与分布、民族构成、素质、经济活动人口和年龄构成作了简要的概述。