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排序方式: 共有73条查询结果,搜索用时 281 毫秒
1.
This paper presents an improved efficiency measurement tool by modifying the existing data envelopment analysis methodology to permit the incorporation of expert knowledge. A previous paper examined the inclusion of such knowledge within the additive model. This information appeared in the form of a binary classification of a subset of the decision making units under study (e.g. good versus poor performers). In the current paper, we extend this logic to the input-oriented radial projection model. We demonstrate that the inclusion of this and other forms of expert judgment can improve the performance of the DEA tool in the sense that the efficiency scores are more in line with expert/management beliefs. 相似文献
2.
Performance measurement with classification information: an enhanced additive DEA model 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper presents an improved measurement tool for evaluating performance of branches within a major Canadian bank. While there have been numerous previous studies of performance in the banking industry, particularly at the branch level, this study is different in a very significant way: specifically two kinds of data are used to develop the model. The first type of data is that related to standard transactions, available from any bank; such have formed the basis of numerous previous studies. The second type of data, obtained from the site studied, is classification information, based on branch consultant/expert judgment as to good and poor performance of branches. The purpose herein is to present a modified version of an existing benchmarking model, data envelopment analysis (DEA), and to show how this tool is applied in the banking industry. The mechanism used herein to incorporate expert knowledge within the DEA framework is to first apply a discriminant or classification tool, to quantify the functional relation that best captures the expert's mental model for performance. The outcome of this first phase is an orientation of variables to aid in the definition of inputs and outputs. The resulting orientation then defines the DEA model that makes up the second phase of the model. 相似文献
3.
We consider approximate inference in hybrid Bayesian Networks (BNs) and present a new iterative algorithm that efficiently
combines dynamic discretization with robust propagation algorithms on junction trees. Our approach offers a significant extension
to Bayesian Network theory and practice by offering a flexible way of modeling continuous nodes in BNs conditioned on complex
configurations of evidence and intermixed with discrete nodes as both parents and children of continuous nodes. Our algorithm
is implemented in a commercial Bayesian Network software package, AgenaRisk, which allows model construction and testing to
be carried out easily. The results from the empirical trials clearly show how our software can deal effectively with different
type of hybrid models containing elements of expert judgment as well as statistical inference. In particular, we show how
the rapid convergence of the algorithm towards zones of high probability density, make robust inference analysis possible
even in situations where, due to the lack of information in both prior and data, robust sampling becomes unfeasible. 相似文献
4.
刑事证人拒绝出庭作证问题一直困扰着我们,解决此问题直接关系到我国刑事审判方式改革的成败,影响着司法改革所追求的公正与效率的价值目标的实现,为此,必须建立强制刑事证人出庭作证的法律规定,同时完善对证人的保护措施,实现刑事诉讼法的立法目的。 相似文献
5.
This article presents methodology of applying probabilistic inversion in combination with expert judgment in priority setting problem. Experts rank scenarios according to severity. A linear multi‐criteria analysis model underlying the expert preferences is posited. Using probabilistic inversion, a distribution over attribute weights is found that optimally reproduces the expert rankings. This model is validated in three ways. First, consistency of expert rankings is checked, second, a complete model fitted using all expert data is found to adequately reproduce observed expert rankings, and third, the model is fitted to subsets of the expert data and used to predict rankings in out‐of‐sample expert data. 相似文献
6.
7.
设计和选择适用的建造方式是核电站能够顺利建成的重要基础。文章在核电站工程建造方式的选择中引入层次分析法,提出了基于层次分析法的建造方式选择方法。该方法通过明确核电站工程建造方式的类型及特点、识别影响核电站工程建造方式选取的因素、层次分析结构的建模、判断矩阵的构造和排序,为核电站建造方式选取这一问题提供参考。 相似文献
8.
The Assessment of Probability Distributions from Expert Opinions with an Application to Seismic Fragility Curves 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
A method is developed for estimating a probability distribution using estimates of its percentiles provided by experts. The analyst's judgment concerning the credibility of these expert opinions is quantified in the likelihood function of Bayes'Theorem. The model considers explicitly the random variability of each expert estimate, the dependencies among the estimates of each expert, the dependencies among experts, and potential systematic biases. The relation between the results of the formal methods of this paper and methods used in practice is explored. A series of sensitivity studies provides insights into the significance of the parameters of the model. The methodology is applied to the problem of estimation of seismic fragility curves (i.e., the conditional probability of equipment failure given a seismically induced stress). 相似文献
9.
Fermín Mallor Carmen García-Olaverri Sagrario Gómez-Elvira Pedro Mateo-Collazas 《Risk analysis》2008,28(4):1003-1019
In this article, we present a methodology to assess the risk incurred by a participant in an activity involving danger of injury. The lack of high-quality historical data for the case considered prevented us from constructing a sufficiently detailed statistical model. It was therefore decided to generate a risk assessment model based on expert judgment. The methodology is illustrated in a real case context: the assessment of risk to participants in a San Fermin bull-run in Pamplona (Spain). The members of the panel of "experts on the bull-run" represented very different perspectives on the phenomenon: runners, surgeons and other health care personnel, journalists, civil defense workers, security staff, organizers, herdsmen, authors of books on the bull-run, etc. We consulted 55 experts. Our methodology includes the design of a survey instrument to elicit the experts' views and the statistical and mathematical procedures used to aggregate their subjective opinions. 相似文献