Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Estimating household structure in ancient China by using historical data: a latent class analysis of partially missing patterns

Summary.  Social data often contain missing information. The problem is inevitably severe when analysing historical data. Conventionally, researchers analyse complete records only. Listwise deletion not only reduces the effective sample size but also may result in biased estimation, depending on the missingness mechanism. We analyse household types by using population registers from ancient China (618–907 AD) by comparing a simple classification, a latent class model of the complete data and a latent class model of the complete and partially missing data assuming four types of ignorable and non-ignorable missingness mechanisms. The findings show that either a frequency classification or a latent class analysis using the complete records only yielded biased estimates and incorrect conclusions in the presence of partially missing data of a non-ignorable mechanism. Although simply assuming ignorable or non-ignorable missing data produced consistently similarly higher estimates of the proportion of complex households, a specification of the relationship between the latent variable and the degree of missingness by a row effect uniform association model helped to capture the missingness mechanism better and improved the model fit.     

一种求解双目标线性规划的方法及其在上海市土地使用和交通方面的应用

本文介绍了一种求解双目标线性规划(SBLP)的方法.根据上海市土地使用与交通的现状建立了一个拟动态的模型(BOLT),并用该方法加以求解。根据得到的解对上海市土地使用与交通相互作用的情况进行了分析。     

老年人照顾体系的建立及其法律完善

人口老龄化是一种全球性发展趋势,中国也不例外。我国必须在构建老年社会养老保障体系的同时构建老年照顾体系。本文分析了我国老年人照顾需求的现状和老年照顾问题在家庭养老和社会养老方面的严峻性。根据实际情况,探索并构建适合我国国情的老年照顾体系。同时,对立法中需要确立的指导思想、资金来源、照顾主体、具体照顾服务制度以及相关法律责任等提出建议,为老年人照顾的长期顺利实施提供法律依据。     

经济全球化影响下的中国计划生育发展趋势

中国的计划生育是在计划经济体制下形成的,其特点多数与经济全球化的规则有着较大的差距。因此,经济全球化和中国加入世贸组织对中国计划生育的影响是全面而深刻的。在经济全球化的影响下,中国计划生育的发展趋势主要体现在六个方面。     

An individual measure of relative survival

Summary.  Relative survival techniques are used to compare survival experience in a study cohort with that expected if background population rates apply. The techniques are especially useful when cause-specific death information is not accurate or not available as they provide a measure of excess mortality in a group of patients with a certain disease. Whereas these methods are based on group comparisons, we present here a transformation approach which instead gives for each individual an outcome measure relative to the appropriate background population. The new outcome measure is easily interpreted and can be analysed by using standard survival analysis techniques. It provides additional information on relative survival and gives new options in regression analysis. For example, one can estimate the proportion of patients who survived longer than a given percentile of the respective general population or compare survival experience of individuals while accounting for the population differences. The regression models for the new outcome measure are different from existing models, thus providing new possibilities in analysing relative survival data. One distinctive feature of our approach is that we adjust for expected survival before modelling. The paper is motivated by a study into the survival of patients after acute myocardial infarction.     

云南女性人口发展状况概述

作者从人口学的角度，以人口普查资料为依据，对建国以来云南女性人口的数量与分布、民族构成、素质、经济活动人口和年龄构成作了简要的概述。     

中国人口老龄化的地区差异分析

本文基于1990—2013年省际面板数据，以老年人口比重作为老龄化指标，采用基尼系数分解方法和Kernel密度估计方法，实证分析了中国人口老龄化的地区差异及其动态演进过程。研究结果表明：中国人口老龄化在地区分布上呈现出明显的非均衡特征；基尼系数测算及其分解结果表明，人口老龄化的地区差异总体上呈现波动缩小趋势；2004年以前，地区间差距和超变密度交替成为总体地区差异的主要来源，2004年以后，超变密度成为总体差异的主要来源。 Kernel密度估计显示，老龄化程度不断加深，地区差异呈波动趋势。     

高等教育人口规模对经济增长的影响：地区异质性检验

近年来我国高等教育人口规模不断扩张，对经济社会产生了积极的影响。本文通过建立数理模型阐释了高等教育人口扩张对经济增长的影响机理，并使用1995年到2013年的省级面板数据考察了我国高等教育人口扩张对经济增长的作用，以及这一作用在不同地区的异质性。固定效应和随机效应模型表明，我国高等教育人口扩张促进了地区经济增长，且中西部地区的促进作用要大于东部地区。为了克服由反向因果引起的内生性偏误，本文使用2SLS方法进行了相应处理，结果依旧稳健。本文的研究对于制定高等教育发展的相关政策具有一定的参考意义。     

Modification of GEE1 and linear mixed-effects models for heteroscedastic longitudinal Gaussian data

A characterization of GLMs is given. Modification of the Gaussian GEE1, modified GEE1, was applied to heteroscedastic longitudinal data, to which linear mixed-effects models are usually applied. The modified GEE1 models scale multivariate data to homoscedastic data maintaining the correlation structure and apply usual GEE1 to homoscedastic data, which needs no-diagnostics for diagonal variances. Relationships among multivariate linear regression methods, ordinary/generalized LS, naïve/modified GEE1, and linear mixed-effects models were discussed. An application showed modified GEE1 gave most efficient parameter estimation. Correct specification of the main diagonals of heteroscedastic data variance appears to be more important for efficient mean parameter estimation.