An approximation of logarithmic functions in the regression setting

We consider a method of moments approach for dealing with censoring at zero for data expressed in levels when researchers would like to take logarithms. A Box–Cox transformation is employed. We explore this approach in the context of linear regression where both dependent and independent variables are censored. We contrast this method to two others, (1) dropping records of data containing censored values and (2) assuming normality for censored observations and the residuals in the model. Across the methods considered, where researchers are interested primarily in the slope parameter, estimation bias is consistently reduced using the method of moments approach.     

Still-births among the offspring of male radiation workers at the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant: detailed results and statistical aspects

Summary. This study investigates whether there was evidence of increasing risk of still-birth with increasing paternal exposure to ionizing radiation received during employment at the Sellafield nuclear installation before the child was conceived. A significant positive association is found between the total paternal preconceptional exposure to external ionizing radiation and the risk of still-birth (after adjustment for year of birth, social class, birth order and paternal age, odds ratio at 100 mSv 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.04–1.45)). A summary of the principal scientific findings of this study has been published in the Lancet . This paper describes in detail the statistical methods that were used in the investigation and presents the results in full.     

变换法在解微分方程中的应用

变量代换法是解常微分方程的一种辅助方法，它能使问题简化．本文通过联系实例给出了变换在求解微分方程中的具体应用。     

用Excel统计数值型数据频数分布的三种方法

本文根据两种不同的数据分组方式,分别讨论了利用Excel软件统计数值型数据频数分布的三种基本方法并作了简要评述。     

浅探交际教学法和语法教学法在英语教学中的结合

通过分析交际教学法和语法教学法自身的特点和各自在英语教学中的优势与局限 ,指出将两者结合应用应是现阶段大学英语教学最理想的教学模式 ,并从教学目的、教学对象和教师自身角度说明了这种结合应用的必要性。在此基础上 ,总结了目前在结合应用实践中发现的问题 ,并提出了相应的解决办法。     

Variance (Non) Causality in Multivariate GARCH

This paper extends the current literature on the variance-causality topic providing the coefficient restrictions ensuring variance noncausality within multivariate GARCH models with in-mean effects. Furthermore, this paper presents a new multivariate model, the exponential causality GARCH. By the introduction of a multiplicative causality impact function, the variance causality effects becomes directly interpretable and can therefore be used to detect both the existence of causality and its direction; notably, the proposed model allows for increasing and decreasing variance effects. An empirical application evidences negative causality effects between returns and volume of an Italian stock market index future contract.     

城市景观河流生态修复的产出研究及有效性可靠性检验——基于上海城市内河水质改善价值评估的实证分析

意愿价值评估法(CVM)为具有显著外部性的生态环境服务的价值评估提供可能,但只有经过有效性和可靠性检验的CVM成果才能应用于环境公共政策与治理。本文以CVM评价上海市城市景观内河——漕河泾港的生态恢复的产出,在国内经常采用的线形对数模型基础上,加入二值响应的Logit概率模型对受访者社会经济变量进行回归分析,验证本次CVM应用的理论有效性。回归中首次引入反映我国特殊社会结构的户籍变量、收入差距变量两者的交互项,并纳入间接反映环境问题历史成因的居民沿河居住期变量,以验证调查结果与一般经济理论的相容性和与我国特殊社会构成、经济态势以及环境历史成因的吻合性。以预调查和正式调查为试验—复试样本验证了研究结果的可靠性。结果表明:平均支付意愿是160元/(a.户),改善漕河泾水环境的年经济效益至少在6.1×106元。     

中国货币政策和财政政策相对有效性的实证研究

在我国由计划经济向市场经济的体制转轨过程中,货币政策和财政政策已成为我国宏观经济调节的主要手段,在我国的经济发展中发挥了重要作用。但货币政策和财政政策是各自独立的政策体系,由于作用的方式和条件有较大区别,其效果也有较大不同,文章试图应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,对改革开放以来我国货币政策和财政政策的效果进行实证比较研究,并得出有关结论,为我国的宏观调控政策提供理论分析和实证检验的依据。     

江苏经济地域差异与苏北经济发展战略思考

江苏省的经济发展步伐较快,成就突出,然而,又存在着苏南、苏中与苏北间明显的地域差异,而且这种差异已经成为制约全省经济持续、快速发展的瓶颈。对此,详尽分析了苏南、苏中、苏北经济差异的现状,同时对造成三大地区差距的原因进行了探讨,并着重运用灰色关联法剖解了苏北经济落后的制约因素,在此基础上,对加快苏北地区经济发展提出了相应的思路和对策。     

创作方法:文学理论不该遗弃的概念

创作方法概念不该遗弃,而应重新认识其内涵和层次。本文认为,创作方法包括三个基本要素,即创作目的、创作对象和创作原则。具体创作对象的差异以及三要素的不同组合方式使得创作方法具有无限丰富的形态。风格的多样反映了创作方法的多样。以这种新的创作方法概念,可以对许多纠缠不清的问题,如创作方法与世界观、文艺思潮及风格流派的关系问题等,作出新的解释。