货币政策反应函数渠道对金融周期影响时变机制的实证研究

在关于货币政策影响经济主体风险承担水平,进而影响金融周期波动机制的研究中,基于风险承担渠道的相关研究较为成熟.区别于以往相关研究多关注货币政策实际采取的立场,文章基于货币政策反应函数渠道探讨了数量型与价格型货币政策反应函数对金融周期波动影响的时变机制.滚动回归的实证结果显示:无论数量型货币政策规则还是价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性主要影响金融周期的波动,但在价格型货币政策规则下,基于信贷视角观察金融周期波动时,货币政策信贷敏感性与货币政策资产价格敏感性对金融周期影响差异较小;较之于价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性在数量型货币政策规则下,对金融周期波动的影响更显著,并在一定程度上表现出随时间扩大的趋势.文章的创新之处在于:强调了货币政策通过政策反应函数渠道而非以往研究中较多关注的狭义风险承担渠道影响金融周期波动的事实,并构建计量模型对货币政策反应函数渠道影响金融周期波动的时变机制进行了详细刻画.     

Approximation of the Bivariate Renewal Function

Recently, Kambo and his co-researchers (2012) proposed a method of approximation for evaluating the one-dimensional renewal function based on the first three moments. Their method is simple and elegant, which gives exact values for well-known distributions. In this article, we propose an analogous method for the evaluation of bivariate renewal function based on the first two moments of the variables and their joint moment. The proposed method yields exact results for certain widely used bivariate distributions like bivariate exponential distribution, bivariate Weibull distributions, and bivariate Pareto distributions. An illustrative example in the form of a two-dimensional warranty problem is considered and comparisons of our method are made with the results of other models.     

从“以人为本”到政府“公信”--新世纪初政府公信力构建的进路评析

政府公信力是政府凭籍自身信用赢得公众信任的能力，十六大以来，党在施政理念上强调"以人为本"，在执政行为上关注"民生"；在绩效上彰显公平正义，施政方略渗透着人文关怀因素，政府公信力得到了有效提升。但由于腐败现象没有得到有效控制，党风廉政与制度化建设相对滞后，政府公信力也受到了冲击。在新一代领导集体治国理政中，"改革"成为新的常态，防腐败斗争与党风廉政建设取得了伟大成就，政府公信力的重振业已开启。     

论民族自治地方政府机构改革的深化——基于新中国成立初期探索的思考

民族自治地方政府在新一轮机构改革中进行了历史性变革和系统性重塑，然而顶层设计与分层对接机制优化、机构设置细化与整合、运转协同和效能提升仍未完全到位。回溯机构改革史，中华人民共和国成立初期作为政府顶层设计和系统性构建阶段，是民族自治地方政府机构建设最富成效的历史时期之一。这一时期的民族自治地方政府机构建设强调权能配置和人员构成的民族性，逐步差异化设置机构、探索单一制下政府机构平衡设置等历史经验，可以为进一步深化政府机构改革提供有益借鉴。在新的历史起点上深化民族自治地方政府机构改革应以新时代中国特色社会主义思想为引领，合理汲取历史养分，进一步深化理论研究，完善法制体系，明晰特殊性职权和民族性职能，健全顶层设计与分层对接机制，创新改革模式，强化地方参与性，切实破解改革难题，推动政府自身建设持续走向深入。     

People with disability and new disaster communications: access and the social media mash-up

This article explores how a lack of access to increasingly complex and overlapping digital communications platforms in times of disaster for people with disabilities has the potential to make already life-threatening situations considerably more dangerous. As we are increasingly coming to rely on a social media mash-up of digital platforms to assist in communications during disaster situations, the issue of accessibility for people with disabilities is as dire as if it was high ground during a tsunami or transport during a typhoon. The contemporary social media environment is characterised by a complex and overlapping network of complementary platforms, populated by user-generated content, where people communicate and exchange ideas. In this environment, YouTube videos are posted to Facebook and embedded in blogs, and Twitter is used to link to these other sites and is itself embedded in other platforms. These networks are increasingly supplementing and supplanting more traditional communication platforms, such as the television and radio, particularly in times of disaster. The concern of this paper is that the elements from which this mash-up of communications channels is made are not always accessible to people with disabilities. This evolving network of social media-based communication exposes the limits of existing Internet-based universal design.     

市场经济下政府与市场的关系

在市场经济中，市场必须在资源配置中发挥基础性或决定性的作用，但政府在市场失灵的地方又必须积极地发挥作用。本文分别从早期市场经济中政府的作用、现代市场经济中政府的作用等五个方面对这一问题进行论述。     

影子银行、地方政府债务及金融发展动态关系研究——基于省级面板VAR模型

基于2004—2017年中国省级面板数据,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,使用系统GMM估计、脉冲响应函数、方差分解以及格兰杰因果关系检验等方法分析了影子银行、地方政府债务及金融发展之间的动态关系.结果表明:影子银行、地方政府债务与金融发展水平三者之间存在动态耦合关系.在地方政府融资能力受到约束的情况下,影子银行为地方政府提供了多元的融资方式,在增加政府融资能力的同时提升了政府债务水平;而地方政府债务需求显著推动了影子银行规模的快速发展.同时,影子银行过度扩张危害了金融市场的健康发展,降低金融发展水平,继而使地方政府的融资渠道受到约束.但金融发展并不能有效约束影子银行规模,原因在于,政府融资需求是影子银行的主要动力,若不能控制地方政府的借贷行为则无法从源头解决问题.监管机构在去杠杆的过程中,应该综合考虑影子银行与地方政府债务、金融发展之间的动态关系,如此才能够实现预期的政策效果.     

On the estimation of non linear functions in stochastic volatility models

Abstract

This paper focuses on the inference of suitable generally non linear functions in stochastic volatility models. In this context, in order to estimate the variance of the proposed estimators, a moving block bootstrap (MBB) approach is suggested and discussed. Under mild assumptions, we show that the MBB procedure is weakly consistent. Moreover, a methodology to choose the optimal length block in the MBB is proposed. Some examples and simulations on the model are also made to show the performance of the proposed procedure.     

Tests for time series of counts based on the probability-generating function

We propose testing procedures for the hypothesis that a given set of discrete observations may be formulated as a particular time series of counts with a specific conditional law. The new test statistics incorporate the empirical probability-generating function computed from the observations. Special emphasis is given to the popular models of integer autoregression and Poisson autoregression. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are studied under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. A Monte Carlo power study on bootstrap versions of the new methods is included as well as real-data examples.     

信息技术与高中数学课程整合探究

信息技术与数学课程整合已成为必然趋势,各种教学辅助软件的出现使教师应接不暇。数学软件Maple凭借其简单的操作和强大的功能等优势被越来越多的数学教师作为辅助教学软件。本文用数学实验的方法介绍了Maple在高中数学教学中的几个应用实例,并对信息技术与课程整合与传统教学法之间的优缺点进行了比较。