A Bayesian Analysis of Abundance,Trend, and Population Viability for Harbor Seals in Iliamna Lake,Alaska

Harbor seals in Iliamna Lake, Alaska, are a small, isolated population, and one of only two freshwater populations of harbor seals in the world, yet little is known about their abundance or risk for extinction. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate abundance and trend of this population. Observational models were developed from aerial survey and harvest data, and they included effects for time of year and time of day on survey counts. Underlying models of abundance and trend were based on a Leslie matrix model that used prior information on vital rates from the literature. We developed three scenarios for variability in the priors and used them as part of a sensitivity analysis. The models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The population production rate implied by the vital rate estimates was about 5% per year, very similar to the average annual harvest rate. After a period of growth in the 1980s, the population appears to be relatively stable at around 400 individuals. A population viability analysis assessing the risk of quasi‐extinction, defined as any reduction to 50 animals or below in the next 100 years, ranged from 1% to 3%, depending on the prior scenario. Although this is moderately low risk, it does not include genetic or catastrophic environmental events, which may have occurred to the population in the past, so our results should be applied cautiously.     

The renationalisation of migration policies in times of crisis: the case of Norway*

Securing collective action in the field of asylum regulation is high on the European political agenda. In this article, we look at one country's partial pullback from the regional cooperation during the high influx of asylum seekers in 2015. We use Norway as a case to analyse the challenges to common European asylum regulations and the drivers of a region-wide tendency of what we call renationalisation. Against this background, we seek to contribute to the discussion on the dynamics of Europeanisation and the future of the Common European Asylum System. While the Europeanisation of migration policies has been well covered in the literature, tendencies of renationalisation have been less so. To contribute to the knowledge base, we create a typology of the drivers of renationalisation. These drivers include necessary political and institutional preconditions, resource limitations, triggers, expectations and aspects of time.     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

论韩国金融部门改革

韩国金融危机是由于东亚金融危机的连带影响和国内经济结构造成的,为此韩国政府对财政、商业、劳动和政府 四个特殊部门进行了改革。在财政改革方面,成立了新的财政监管机构,在政府领导下关闭处理由问题的金融部门,增强金 融企业的竞争力。四年的改革使韩国迅速恢复了主要经济指标和存款利率,财政行业全面复苏。     

社会支持在灾后心理危机干预中的作用

心理危机干预通过及时控制和减缓灾难的心理社会影响,促进了受灾者心理健康的重建。然而,当前我国灾区的心理干预工作存在着将心理危机干预与社会支持相混淆又相脱离的背反现象。调查和事实证实,只有实现二者的互动尤其是充分发挥社会支持系统的作用,才能够既促进灾后心理危机干预的专业性功能提升,又进一步增强实务工作的科学性和有效性。     

文化身份认同危机与异化——论查建英的《到美国去!到美国去!》

不同于上几代老移民作家,也有异于同时代的一些新移民作家,作为20世纪80年代的新移民作家代表,美籍华人查建英致力于描写北美华裔所面临的文化和性别冲突.她徘徊于中西文化之间,体会着"边缘化"的状态,其作品《到美国去!到美国去!》透视了"边缘人"的生存和心理状态,反映出人物在中/西矛盾对立中特殊的充满悖论式的生存困境,揭示了新移民难以逃遁的文化身份认同危机和异化等问题,以及在身份认同危机和异化中所追求的一种自我放逐的自由.     

施工企业危机管理及其经济分析

危机管理的目的是为了避免和减少危机的损害,是一场"防御性的战斗",也是一项系统工程。论文结合竞争激烈的施工企业市场实际,从施工企业危机管理入手,阐述了施工企业危机管理目前的共性内容,并通过分析对危机管理的重要意义、危机管理效果和经济效果的衡量等问题,进一步通过施工企业危机管理的经济分析对危机管理投入、所得的界定,研究了危机管理投入的量化及归一化,以及危机管理所得的量化及归一化问题,得出单位投入所带来的整体稳定态势,其值越大表明危机管理越有效。可为施工企业开展此项工作提供一定的理论指导。     

制造企业生存和发展的推动力--技术创新

技术创新是制造企业发展的原动力和核心竞争力.培养员工的创新精神,营造有利于创新的企业文化环境,制定符合制造企业发展要求的创新策略,建立鼓励创新的管理机制和创新能力评价体系是提高制造企业创新能力的关键.     

“非典”危机反应与危机心理干预

面对突如其来的SARS流行,社会上普遍出现恐慌、焦虑、担忧等心理反应。如何帮助人们调整心态,应对危机,在危机中获得成长,已经成为心理学家当前最关心的课题。文章从心理学的角度出发,探讨了SARS危机下人们出现的身心反应以及危机可能引发的后果,提出了危机干预的方法、过程,初步构建了危机干预的模式。对于如何应对SARS引起的过度的危机反应,文章中也提出了自我心理调适的途径和方法。     

日本的道德教育及高校德育改革

日本强国的成功,与其强大的教育、尤其是优秀文化传统和良好道德教育的强有力支撑分不开。如清明、正直善良同情吃苦勤劳节俭之心的传统美德;德育过程中的并重个性、协作、传统、劳动、人生观教育,强调学生主体、群体意识、异域优秀文化、道德实践,国家利益至上的完美结合。但日本朝野各界现都确认正视,全球化大深入背景下的日本高校德育危机已经出现不少大学生脱离政治;无远大理想;贪图生活安逸;个人主义倾向严重等。全方位的日本高校德育改革正在进行;德育成为学校教育的首位;最重要的德育目标仍然坚持民族精神与爱国思想;内容从共同价值观扩展至宗教、伦理、纪律、法制、民主、人道消费、环保等人类生活诸方面;正规课程与非正规课程结合;形式社会化、网络化与开放性整合。