毛泽东与“另起炉灶”的外交战略理论和实践

建国之时,毛泽东和党中央根据当时的国际形势,从中国人民的根本利益出发,提出和实施“另起炉灶”的外交战略,成为新中国在当时最重要的外交方略之一。“另起炉灶”外交战略理论的提出实施,彻底划清了新中国外交与旧中国外交的界限,从根本上维护了“一个中国”的原则,使新中国走上了真正独立自主的道路。因此,“另起炉灶”的外交战略理论不仅具有伟大的历史意义,而且具有伟大的现实意义。     

Bayesian updating of atmospheric dispersion after a nuclear accident

Summary.  We consider a Bayesian forecasting system to predict the dispersal of contamination on a large scale grid in the event of an accidental release of radioactivity. The statistical model is built on a physical model for atmospheric dispersion and transport called MATCH. Our spatiotemporal model is a dynamic linear model where the state parameters are the (essentially, deterministic) predictions of MATCH; the distributions of these are updated sequentially in the light of monitoring data. One of the distinguishing features of the model is that the number of these parameters is very large (typically several hundreds of thousands) and we discuss practical issues arising in its implementation as a realtime model. Our procedures have been checked against a variational approach which is used widely in the atmospheric sciences. The results of the model are applied to test data from a tracer experiment.     

内开槽螺纹波导冷腔色散特性模拟研究

根据螺纹波导中模式间的耦合方程组及冷腔色散方程进行了数值计算,分析了2个模式的相互耦合机理。基于圆柱形波导中线性极化TE11模式存在极化简并的特性,将线极化TE11脉冲作为1个探针,采用粒子模拟软件对该腔体进行了3维冷腔模拟;并将模拟结果与数值计算结果进行了比较,两者基本一致。通过计算机模拟得出了混合模式的电场等位线分布图,结合色散方程数值计算分析了内开槽螺纹几何特性变化对波导色散特性的影响规律。     

一个四层非均匀平面光波导的色散方程

借助 W.K.B 方法,参照四层均匀平面光波导的色散方程,提出了一个适用于计算四层非均匀平面光波导传播常数的色散方程。理论分析与数值计算表明,该方程不仅适用于具有任意折射率分布的四层非均匀波导,而且计算步骤简单,精度高。在0.6～1.55μm 波长范围内,用我们的公式与严格解析公式进行计算,其结果的最大差值<±1×10~(-4)。     

对我国民事主体资格理论的反思

民事主体资格问题不仅存在于民事法律关系中, 同时对其他法律关系也会产生影响。关于这一问题在理论研究中还存在一些缺陷。本文就有关问题提出质疑并进行反思, 以求引起重视, 达到完善我国民事主体资格理论的目的。     

Residential mobility and the spatial dispersion of personal networks: Effects on social support

Using a representative national sample of personal networks, this article explores how the spatial dispersion of networks, residential mobility and social support are linked. Three issues will be addressed here. Firstly, how is the spatial dispersion of personal networks related to individuals’ social characteristics, network composition and residential mobility? Secondly, how do the spatial dispersion of networks, residential mobility and their combined effect influence the number and (thirdly) the structure of emotional support ties? Results showed that the extent of the support was affected neither by the geographical distribution of the networks nor by residential mobility. Living far from one's birthplace, however, exerted two distinct, and opposite effects on the support network structure. On the one hand, mobility led to high spatial dispersion of personal contacts, which in turn favored a sparsely knit network centered around the mobile individual. On the other hand, by controlling for the effect of distance between the contacts, we found that individuals that cited long-distance ties tended to be part of more transitive support networks than those that cited local ties. We interpreted the latter effect as evidence that transitive ties may survive greater spatial distances than intransitive ones. These findings are discussed in view of spatial mobility and social network research.     

应用同伦正则化算法反演二维溶质运移模型中的弥散系数

利用同伦正则化算法探讨了二维对流弥散方程的依赖空间变量的弥散系数反演问题.讨论了初始迭代值、数值微分步长、以及收敛精度对算法实现的影响.数值模拟表明,同伦正则化算法对于此类参数反演问题是一种有效的方法.     

Marginal zero-inflated regression models for count data

Data sets with excess zeroes are frequently analyzed in many disciplines. A common framework used to analyze such data is the zero-inflated (ZI) regression model. It mixes a degenerate distribution with point mass at zero with a non-degenerate distribution. The estimates from ZI models quantify the effects of covariates on the means of latent random variables, which are often not the quantities of primary interest. Recently, marginal zero-inflated Poisson (MZIP; Long et al. [A marginalized zero-inflated Poisson regression model with overall exposure effects. Stat. Med. 33 (2014), pp. 5151–5165]) and negative binomial (MZINB; Preisser et al., 2016) models have been introduced that model the mean response directly. These models yield covariate effects that have simple interpretations that are, for many applications, more appealing than those available from ZI regression. This paper outlines a general framework for marginal zero-inflated models where the latent distribution is a member of the exponential dispersion family, focusing on common distributions for count data. In particular, our discussion includes the marginal zero-inflated binomial (MZIB) model, which has not been discussed previously. The details of maximum likelihood estimation via the EM algorithm are presented and the properties of the estimators as well as Wald and likelihood ratio-based inference are examined via simulation. Two examples presented illustrate the advantages of MZIP, MZINB, and MZIB models for practical data analysis.