On a class exhibiting trend change in average failure rate

Abstract

Weak convergence and moment convergence issues are investigated for the New Better than Average Failure Rate (NBAFR) family (introduced by Loh (1984 Loh, W. Y. 1984. A new generalization of the class of NBU distributions. IEEE Transactions on Reliability R-33 :97–113[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])). We explore the validity of these results in the context of a more general ageing class that we introduce. We prove some new properties of this class and derive its interrelationships with other non-monotonic ageing families. Reliability and moment bounds are obtained and an interesting characterization of exponentiality is proved. Special cases of our results lead to new theorems for the NBAFR class. Finally weak convergence and related issues are established for this class.     

The Best and Worst Times of Life: Narratives and Assessments of Subjective Well-Being by Anamnestic Comparative Self Assessment (ACSA) in the Eastern Cape,South Africa

The Anamnestic Comparative Self Assessment (ACSA) measure of subjective well-being (SWB) aims to reduce the problems of cultural bias and relativity to external standards by allowing people to define the endpoints or ‘anchors’ of the measurement scale. In medical terminology anamnestic denotes ‘based on memory’. The ACSA uses subjects’ memories of the best and worst periods in their lives to define the anchors of the scale. They then assess their current quality of life relative to these personal anchors. The South African pilot study tested the match between self-assessment of SWB with ACSA and the conventional single-item measures of life satisfaction and happiness used in the South African Quality of Life Trends Study and analysed the narratives of the best and worst times of life. The quota sample of 46 consisted of 26 residents of Makana district in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa, and 20 patients undergoing treatment in the local TB hospital. Mean SWB ratings with all three measures of life satisfaction, happiness and ACSA were between 5 and 6 on a 0–10-point scale. Ratings on all three scales were positively correlated. However, on ACSA the TB patients rated their current SWB 1.84 points lower than the community respondents, suggesting a greater sensitivity of this measure. It was observed that the starting points of the life stories produced by respondents to define the anchor periods for ACSA were related to their current assessment of SWB. A typology was developed that combined the starting point of the life stories with current SWB. The majority of community respondents matched the ‘Achiever’ type who scored positively on ACSA (i.e., above the mid-point of the scale) and whose life stories started with the worst period of their lives and proceeded to the best period. The TB patients were the only respondents to represent the ‘Survivor’ type whose morale had recovered after misfortune in life. ‘Survivors’ started their narratives with the best period in their lives, then moved to the worst (often health-related) one, and gave positive ACSA ratings. Based on the qualitative analysis of narratives, it is concluded that ACSA is a sensitive measurement instrument and therefore particularly useful for monitoring the effects of treatments and social interventions in longitudinal studies. However, further research is required to verify its cross-cultural validity.

交往理性：哈贝马斯的理性重建

哈贝马斯是在分析交往行为和生活世界的过程中建构起交往理性概念的。他是以工具理性和交往理性二元分立为基点,赋予交往理性以对抗工具理性的使命,通过“交往理性”这种新理性观的确立,解除了意识哲学的“先验主体”和“先验理性”的设定,摒弃了主、客体二元对立的思维方式,从而取消了主体中心主义的独裁,从根本上否定了狭隘的传统的“理性”观,也为现代人逃离现代性困境提供了一个可能的方向。     

A Bayesian Analysis for Accelerated Lifetime Tests Under an Exponential Power Law Model with Threshold Stress

In this paper, we present a Bayesian methodology for modelling accelerated lifetime tests under a stress response relationship with a threshold stress. Both Laplace and MCMC methods are considered. The methodology is described in detail for the case when an exponential distribution is assumed to express the behaviour of lifetimes, and a power law model with a threshold stress is assumed as the stress response relationship. We assume vague but proper priors for the parameters of interest. The methodology is illustrated by a accelerated failure test on an electrical insulation film.     

The econometrics of female labor supply and children

This is a survey of applied econometric research on the effects of children on female labor supply. Reasons for interest in the topic, and a basic model and terminology, are reviewed. Concerns are raised about the possible endogeneity of child status variables, and about the instrumental variables approach for dealing with this problem. Alternative ways of conceptualizing and estimating child status effects are considered, together with selected empirical evidence. Relevant developments from the household demand literature are summarized. Basic issues of model choice are also discussed.     

李白与杜甫面面观

围绕李白与杜甫的生平行事及其诗歌创作,从八个层面进行对比论述,所谓“以诗证史,有裨于知人论世”。文中既综合了当代的研究成果,也提出了一些新的见解。     

论“自我”概念的哲学演变

在西方哲学史上自我曾以灵魂、实体、主体、此在等诸多形态出现过。自我概念哲学演变的内在机制在于它是由古代哲学的自然反思即自我与自然的混沌状态发展到近代哲学的内外反思即主、客二分状态。到了现代哲学阶段研究自我概念的思路转换,一方面开始从理智的直觉转换为体悟的直觉,另一方面则开始从异化的、分裂的自我转换为统一的自我。哲学对“自我”认识不断深化的过程实质上是哲学的人学性质日益凸显的过程。     

池莉“人生三部曲”的男性形象和女性意识

池莉的"人生三部曲"虽以男性为主要描写对象,但透过这些男性形象与对应的女性形象的关系可以看出,池莉自始至终都以女性意识来关照其作品中的人物:呼唤男子汉的女性意识增强了男性的角色意识;要求丈夫尊重、重视、认同的意识使男主人公更加清醒地认识现实、承担责任;女性主体意识的张扬使男人从男性中心幻觉中跌落,自觉地修炼自身、确立自己.     

社会史论战的先声——《新生命》杂志对中国社会结构的探讨

20世纪20年代末30年代初,《新生命》杂志作者群体围绕着中国社会结构进行过一场讨论,可以视之为其后中国社会史论战的先导。这次讨论最大的特点,是关注中国社会及其社会史的特殊性,而不是共同性;所用的方法是社会学的方法,包括马克思主义的社会学。在探讨中国社会结构问题时,《新生命》杂志是一份既非反对唯物史观,也不是完全意义上坚持唯物史观的刊物。