A class of symmetric bivariate uniform distributions

A class of symmetric bivariate uniform distributions is proposed for use in statistical modeling. The distributions may be constructed to be absolutely continuous with correlations as close to±1 as desired. Expressions for the correlations, regressions and copulas are found. An extension to three dimensions is proposed.     

Statistik für bivariate gemischte Poisson–Prozesse am Beispiel der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung

Zusammenfassung: In diesem Artikel wird der Weg von einem univariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess, der in vielen Bereichen zum Z?hlen von Ereignissen benutzt wird, zu einem bivariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess aufgezeigt. Dazu werden einige Eigenschaften des bivariaten Prozesses angegeben. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie mit Hilfe dieses Prozesses der übergang von einem herk?mmlichen Bonus–Malus–System in der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung zu einem Bonus–Malus–System mit Berücksichtigung der Schadenart beschritten werden kann. Dazu wird zuerst eine Modellprüfung der gegebenen Daten vorgenommen und sodann werden für verschiedene mischende Verteilungen die Verteilungsparameter gesch?tzt und Nettopr?mien angegeben sowie die Prognosegenauigkeit getestet.

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Summary: In this paper we show that the model of the bivariate mixed Poisson process arises in a natural way from the univariate mixed Poisson process, which is used in several areas for counting certain events. Furthermore we state some properties of the bivariate process. In the second part of the paper we illustrate how by means of the bivariate mixed Poisson process a bonus–malus system handling different types of accidents can be derived from the classical bonus–malus system in third–party liability insurance. To this end we first check the model on the given data and then estimate distribution parameters and compute net premiums for different mixing distributions as well as test the prediction probabilities.

* Vortrag am Dresdner Forum zur Versicherungsmathematik: Tarifierung in Erst- und Rückversicherung am 25. Juni 2004. Für die Unterstützung zu dieser Arbeit m?chte der Autor Lothar Partzsch, Klaus D. Schmidt (beide Dresden) und Friedemann Spies (München) recht herzlich danken.     

A Review of Kyoto Protocol Adoption in Russia: Joint Implementation in Focus

Russia’s role in ‘animation’ of the Kyoto Protocol was crucial. Its initial vacillation on ratification was predominantly due to political bargaining with the EU. Domestic economic rationales [i.e. impacts of emission trading and Joint Implementation (JI) projects] were important to a much lesser extent and environmental motives did not seem to play any role in the decision. Since the Protocol entered into force, there have been significant delays in complete establishment of policy implementation frameworks, which are necessary for Russia to start benefiting from JI and emission trading. Only recently, in 2007, have GHG inventories and a national registry been established and the responsibilities for implementation of the Protocol and JI among the government departments have been distributed only to a certain extent. Some constraints hindering JI projects, such as vague legislation, an unfavourable economic climate, lack of commitment to JI projects, corruption, xenophobia, state and agency ‘capture’ still remain.      

Sampling design proportional to order statistic of auxiliary variable

The sampling designs dependent on sample moments of auxiliary variables are well known. Lahiri (Bull Int Stat Inst 33:133–140, 1951) considered a sampling design proportionate to a sample mean of an auxiliary variable. Sing and Srivastava (Biometrika 67(1):205–209, 1980) proposed the sampling design proportionate to a sample variance while Wywiał (J Indian Stat Assoc 37:73–87, 1999) a sampling design proportionate to a sample generalized variance of auxiliary variables. Some other sampling designs dependent on moments of an auxiliary variable were considered e.g. in Wywiał (Some contributions to multivariate methods in, survey sampling. Katowice University of Economics, Katowice, 2003a); Stat Transit 4(5):779–798, 2000) where accuracy of some sampling strategies were compared, too.These sampling designs cannot be useful in the case when there are some censored observations of the auxiliary variable. Moreover, they can be much too sensitive to outliers observations. In these cases the sampling design proportionate to the order statistic of an auxiliary variable can be more useful. That is why such an unequal probability sampling design is proposed here. Its particular cases as well as its conditional version are considered, too. The sampling scheme implementing this sampling design is proposed. The inclusion probabilities of the first and second orders were evaluated. The well known Horvitz–Thompson estimator is taken into account. A ratio estimator dependent on an order statistic is constructed. It is similar to the well known ratio estimator based on the population and sample means. Moreover, it is an unbiased estimator of the population mean when the sample is drawn according to the proposed sampling design dependent on the appropriate order statistic.     

Strengths-Based Approach and Coping Strategies used by Parents Whose Young Children Exhibit Violent Behaviour: Collaboration Between Schools and Parents

This research study explores the strategies adopted by 60 parents of children between 3 and 9 years of age considered to have engaged in violent behaviour, within the meaning of the Safe Schools Act (Ontario Ministry of Education, Canada, 2000). This legal framework requires parents to be involved in the decisions concerning their children. Parents’ perceptions of their involvement lead them to develop coping strategies enabling them to play a more active role in such decision making. This article analyzes their perceptions according to a strengths-based approach and seeks to provide a mediation perspective to social work practice with families.

Imagined interactions,family money management patterns and coalitions,and attitudes toward money and credit

This study explores the imagined interactions college students have with their parents about money and credit, their attitudes toward credit and money, the ways they say their parents deal with financial decisions, and the communication coalitions regarding finances they perceive existing within their family. Students’ imagined interaction pleasantness is greatest when parents jointly form a plan for paying off credit card debt and lowest when parents argue. When family coalitions exist, students report more frequent imagined interactions. Imagined interaction frequency and pleasantness are related to credit and money attitudes.

Airline Negotiations and the New Concessionary Bargaining

I ask whether the highly confrontational collective bargaining in the airlines is unique to that industry or a sign of a deepening crisis in union–management relations nationally. First, airline labor relations are reviewed in the context of extremely contentious negotiations, intense industry competition, complex and fragmented bargaining structures, frequent bankruptcies, and unpredictable external shocks. Next, concessionary bargaining in the airlines is discussed, and a new and extreme form of concessionary bargaining is identified. The emergence of the new concessionary bargaining in the airlines and its spread to the automobile sector is then interpreted as the early signs of a fundamental transformation of collective bargaining. The implications of the new concessionary bargaining are then described at the workplace, company, union, and societal levels.

Integrated methodology for multiple systems estimation and record linkage using a missing data formulation

There are now three essentially separate literatures on the topics of multiple systems estimation, record linkage, and missing data. But in practice the three are intimately intertwined. For example, record linkage involving multiple data sources for human populations is often carried out with the expressed goal of developing a merged database for multiple system estimation (MSE). Similarly, one way to view both the record linkage and MSE problems is as ones involving the estimation of missing data. This presentation highlights the technical nature of these interrelationships and provides a preliminary effort at their integration.     

In Vino Pecunia? The Association Between Beverage-Specific Drinking Behavior and Wages

The positive association between moderate alcohol consumption and wages is well documented in the economic literature. Positive health effects as well as networking mechanisms serve as explanations for the “alcohol–income puzzle.” Using individual-based microdata from the SOEP for 2006, we confirm that this relationship exists for Germany as well. More importantly, we shed light on the alcohol–income puzzle by analyzing, for the first time, the association between beverage-specific drinking behavior and wages. In our analysis, we disentangle the general wage effect of drinking into diverse effects for different types of drinkers. Mincerian estimates reveal significant and positive relationships between wine drinkers and wages as well as between multiple beverage drinkers and wages. When splitting the sample into age groups, the “drinking gain” disappears for employees under the age of 35 and increases in size and significance for higher age groups. We also find a “beer gain” for the oldest age group and male residents of rural areas as well as a “cocktail gain” for residents of urban areas. Several explanations for our empirical results are discussed in view of the likelihood that the alcohol–income puzzle is a multicausal phenomenon.