Macroeconomic asymmetry in the Eurozone before and after the Global Financial Crisis: An appraisal of the role of the ECB

The launch of the euro in 1999 was assumed to enhance macroeconomic convergence among EMU economies. We test this hypothesis from a comparative perspective, by calculating different indices to measure the degree of macroeconomic dispersion within the Eurozone, the UK and the USA (1999–2019). We use common factor models to produce a single index for each monetary area out of different measures of dispersion. These indices can be used to inform on the degree of optimality of a monetary area. Our results show that macroeconomic dispersion in the Eurozone increased notably even before 2007 and it took significantly longer to return to pre-crisis levels, as compared to the UK and the USA. The paper shows the critical role played by the ECB’s asset purchases programmes in reducing macroeconomic divergences among EMU member states since 2015.     

Why was the ECB’s reaction to Covid-19 crisis faster than after the 2008 financial crash?

At the time of the financial crises of 2008 and 2010–11 the ECB reacted with an extremely cautious gradualism. This behaviour is attributable to the slower learning process that characterizes a central bank of a monetary union composed of countries with fiscal sovereignty compared to other central banks. In sharp contrast to the previous crises, the ECB reacted promptly to the COVID-19 crisis. This change in behaviour is explained here by the learning process about the effects on monetary policy transmission of the increased financial fragmentation of the eurozone over the last decade.     

欧元区单一货币政策浅析

随着欧元区于1999年正式启动,欧洲经济与货币联盟建设进入了实质性的第三阶段,它标志着欧洲经济一体化又迈向一个崭新的时期。作为一个全新的超国家货币机构,欧洲中央银行负责欧元区单一货币政策的制定和执行,欧元区各成员国因而丧失了原有的货币主权。我们认为,欧元区今后面临的主要问题是:如何协调物价稳定与经济增长、单一货币政策与成员国财政政策、货币政策与欧元汇率政策、欧洲一体化的扩大与深化之间的关系问题。     

从欧元看海合会国家金融货币一体化趋势

本文从评析最优货币区理论和不可能三角理论入手，通过对欧元和欧洲中央银行实践的研究，分析了海合会国家金融货币一体化的趋势，指出现阶段成员国只有通过紧密合作、协调各方矛盾才能为提升海合会国家金融货币一体化水平创造前提条件。     

论新亚欧大陆桥东段经济带的整合、协调与发展

阐述了陆桥东段经济带在陆桥各经济带中所具有的战略地位,并从新亚欧大陆桥东部经济腾飞的契机、陆桥东部经济带资源要素整合的基点、行业或产业结构的战略整合、企业产权结构和企业组织战略整合、政府职能整合、加快路桥东部旅游业等方面进行了论述。认为陆桥各经济带的发展目标应是:形成以大陆桥铁路为主轴,中心城市为支撑点,广大腹地为辐射面,有强大内聚力和辐射力的经济走廊。     

试析欧洲中央银行的独立性

根据有关的理论分析和实证研究结果,中央银行的独立性与通货膨胀之间呈反向关系。为确保欧洲经货联盟第三阶段的物价稳定,“马约”对欧洲中央银行的独立性作了详尽的规划。然而,欧洲中央银行源自于法律的高度独立性也存在着严重的缺陷。如何解决欧洲中央银行面临的“民主赤字”问题,这将取决于欧盟今后在整个机构改革方面取得的实质性进展。