重大环境事件与当代国际社会的重塑——福岛核泄漏事件的环境社会学反思

在福岛核泄漏事件中,各种各样的社会行动者纷纷建构自身以应对核风险,这些建构自身的活动产生了行动主体间的交互影响。福岛核泄漏事件产生的风险互动成为重塑国际社会的重要力量,激发了富裕社会以及自反性现代化对安全的强烈需求。福岛核泄漏事件表明,风险事件既是人类安全需求的对立物,也是安全建构的重要机遇,风险事件的反思和治理会使未来社会更加安全。     

特殊重大工程项目的风险社会放大效应及启示——以日本福岛核泄露事故为例

福岛核电站泄露事故愈演愈烈,其技术风险引发的社会放大效应不断衍伸,在日本及世界各地蔓延,以致引发出世界范围内关于核电站未来发展的存废之争。以"风险社会放大框架"为分析工具,通过对福岛核泄漏风险社会放大效应的表现、特点、机制等进行梳理和剖析,并结合中国国情,提出保证风险信息公开、鼓励风险中公众参与、建立政民心理契约等政策建议。     

A Probabilistic Approach to Assess External Doses to the Public Considering Spatial Variability of Radioactive Contamination and Interpopulation Differences in Behavior Pattern

Dose assessment is an important issue from the viewpoints of protecting people from radiation exposure and managing postaccident situations adequately. However, the radiation doses received by people cannot be determined with complete accuracy because of the uncertainties and the variability associated with any process of defining individual characteristics and in the dose assessment process itself. In this study, a dose assessment model was developed based on measurements and surveys of individual doses and relevant contributors (i.e., ambient dose rates and behavior patterns) in Fukushima City for four population groups: Fukushima City Office staff, Senior Citizens’ Club, Contractors’ Association, and Agricultural Cooperative. In addition, probabilistic assessments were performed for these population groups by considering the spatial variability of contamination and interpopulation differences resulting from behavior patterns. As a result of comparison with the actual measurements, the assessment results for participants from the Fukushima City Office agreed with the measured values, thereby validating the model and the approach. Although the assessment results obtained for the Senior Citizens’ Club and the Agricultural Cooperative differ partly from the measured values, by addressing further considerations in terms of dose reduction effects due to decontamination and the impact of additional exposure sources in agricultural fields, these results can be improved. By contrast, the measurements obtained for the participants from the Contractors’ Association were not reproduced well in the present study. To assess the doses to this group, further investigations of association members’ work activities and the related dose reduction effects are needed.     

Assessment of Instructions on Protection Against Food Contaminated with Radiocesium in Japan in 2011

The Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) has published instructions for radiological protection against food after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011. Following the instructions, the export and consumption of food items identified as being contaminated were restricted for a certain period. We assessed the validity of the imposed restriction periods for two representative vegetables (spinach and cabbage) grown in Fukushima Prefecture from two perspectives: effectiveness for reducing dietary dose and economic efficiency. To assess effectiveness, we estimated the restriction period required to maintain consumers’ dose below the guidance dose levels. To assess economic efficiency, we estimated the restriction period that maximizes the net benefit to taxpayers. All estimated restriction periods were shorter than the actual restriction periods imposed on spinach and cabbage from Fukushima in 2011, which indicates that the food restriction effectively maintained consumers’ dietary dose below the guidance dose level, but in an economically inefficient manner. We also evaluated the response of the restriction period to the sample size for each weekly food safety test and the instructions for when to remove the restriction. Stringent MHLW instructions seemed to sufficiently reduce consumers’ health risk even when the sample size for the weekly food safety test was small, but tended to increase the economic cost to taxpayers.     

内陆核电发展形势分析

核电作为一种安全、清洁和高效的能源,适应了经济发展与环境保护的要求,是能源战略的选择方向。虽然日本福岛核电站事故对世界核电发展有一定的影响,但核电发展不能因之却步。从世界核电发展趋势和我国经济需要来看,内陆核电发展是一种趋势：世界内陆核电已占50％以上;核电安全性进一步提升;内陆中部崛起战略的能源需求和能源结构优化。湖南桃花江核电项目将开启我国内陆核电序幕,并将推动我国核电的健康发展。     

Bioaccessibility of Fukushima‐Accident‐Derived Cs in Soils and the Contribution of Soil Ingestion to Radiation Doses in Children

Ingestion of contaminated soil is one potential internal exposure pathway in areas contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Doses from this pathway can be overestimated if the availability of radioactive nuclides in soils for the gastrointestinal tract is not considered. The concept of bioaccessibility has been adopted to evaluate this availability based on in vitro tests. This study evaluated the bioaccessibility of radioactive cesium from soils via the physiologically‐based extraction test (PBET) and the extractability of those via an extraction test with 1 mol/L of hydrochloric acid (HCl). The bioaccessibility obtained in the PBET was 5.3% ± 1%, and the extractability in the tests with HCl was 16% ± 3%. The bioaccessibility was strongly correlated with the extractability. This result indicates the possibility that the extractability in HCl can be used as a good predictor of the bioaccessibility with PBET. In addition, we assessed the doses to children from the ingestion of soil via hand‐to‐mouth activity based on our PBET results using a probabilistic approach considering the spatial distribution of radioactive cesium in Date City in Fukushima Prefecture and the interindividual differences in the surveyed amounts of soil ingestion in Japan. The results of this assessment indicate that even if children were to routinely ingest a large amount of soil with relatively high contamination, the radiation doses from this pathway are negligible compared with doses from external exposure owing to deposited radionuclides in Fukushima Prefecture.     

Why the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster is a Man‐made Calamity

The Fukushima nuclear disaster caused by the earthquake on 11 March 2011 is a man‐made calamity because technological failures were derived from the failure of multiple social safeguards. The insufficient social safeguards can be explained by highlighting the “nuclear complex.” Institutional frameworks assured the enormous economic power of electric power companies and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). Using this power, the electric power companies effectively manipulated information, maintained strong political power and constructed the nuclear complex, which has imposed an overwhelming influence on the central sphere of control at a national level and has put economic profit before safety. Regulations for safety have not been insufficient because the organization charged with nuclear safety belongs to the nuclear complex. Consequently, Regulatory Guides concerning reactors defined by the government have not accounted for catastrophic accidents. Philosopher Mori Arimasa's concept of "binary combination" provides us with an insight into a profound sociological reason for the Fukushima nuclear disaster because it highlights the immaturity of subjectivity and the root of irresponsibility in Japanese society. Binary combination is defined as a relationship between two persons that is characterized by intimacy and a vertical relation. Binary combination tends to produce a group or organization that is closed to outsiders and often shows indifference as well as insensitivity to outside opinions. In order overcome the defects of energy policy as well as the decision‐making process, and to achieve a sustainable society, it is necessary to promote an energy paradigm shift and reforms for decision‐making through the enrichment of the public sphere.     

On “Black Swans” and “Perfect Storms”: Risk Analysis and Management When Statistics Are Not Enough

Two images, “black swans” and “perfect storms,” have struck the public's imagination and are used—at times indiscriminately—to describe the unthinkable or the extremely unlikely. These metaphors have been used as excuses to wait for an accident to happen before taking risk management measures, both in industry and government. These two images represent two distinct types of uncertainties (epistemic and aleatory). Existing statistics are often insufficient to support risk management because the sample may be too small and the system may have changed. Rationality as defined by the von Neumann axioms leads to a combination of both types of uncertainties into a single probability measure—Bayesian probability—and accounts only for risk aversion. Yet, the decisionmaker may also want to be ambiguity averse. This article presents an engineering risk analysis perspective on the problem, using all available information in support of proactive risk management decisions and considering both types of uncertainty. These measures involve monitoring of signals, precursors, and near‐misses, as well as reinforcement of the system and a thoughtful response strategy. It also involves careful examination of organizational factors such as the incentive system, which shape human performance and affect the risk of errors. In all cases, including rare events, risk quantification does not allow “prediction” of accidents and catastrophes. Instead, it is meant to support effective risk management rather than simply reacting to the latest events and headlines.     

When risks turn to uncertainties: insights from the food markets in China and in Japan

The paper explores the relationship between risks and market organisation by means of two case studies. After defining the two concepts, it analyses how risks influence the functioning of markets, by means of the theory elaborated by Knight (1921). The Knightian focus on the role of judgments in risks analysis implies that the concept of rationality has to be enlarged beyond the rational choice theory. Similarly, markets cannot be defined anymore as simply an equilibrium between supply and demand: they are a special type of institution. Therefore, the analysis centres on how people make decisions and apprehend risks in relation to market structures. In the rest of the paper, two of the most prominent food safety crises in recent years are analysed based on this conceptual framework: the milk powder crisis in China (2008) and the sanitary crisis following the Fukushima nuclear accident (2011). It is shown that they represent two types of market risks, one generated by the food market organisation and the other one related to the definition of the product quality.     

The Immediate Impact of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident on Local Property Values

The Fukushima Daiichi accident released huge amounts of radioactive material over a wide area. We can appreciate the geographical extent of radioactive contamination from the information published online by the Japanese government. Historically, this is an unprecedented situation, which allows “natural experimentation” to estimate the causal effects of radioactive contamination on our society. This study focused on property value losses caused by the accident and analyzed changes in land appraisals around the Fukushima Daiichi plant from July 2010 to July 2011 within the framework of hedonic approach. Thus, we estimated the short‐run impact of the contamination or the change in marginal value of proximity to the plant. The results suggest that the appraisals significantly and monotonically depreciated with increasing contamination levels. However, there was no evidence to suggest changes in the marginal value of proximity to the plant. A comparison between the appraisals and transaction prices indicates that this result could be interpreted as an underestimate of actual property value losses.