无产阶级政权建设规律的初步探索

马克思从揭示人类社会发展规律的角度,通过对世界上第一次出现的无产阶级政权——巴黎公社的分析和总结,阐述了科学社会主义政权建设理论,提出了一些基本政治原则。他指出:建立一个真正的人民国家是无产阶级专政的基础和前提;以责任制廉价政府代替官僚等级制政府是其主要形式;以议行合一原则取代分权制衡原则的权力分配形式可以保证国家机构的政治效能。中国共产党在长期执政实践中积累了丰富的执政经验,党的十九大提出中国特色社会主义已进入新时代。在此契机下重新研读马克思经典著作,对认识和把握中国共产党执政新飞跃、实现国家治理体系和治理能力现代化有着重大现实意义。     

预约合同的违约责任研究

我国现行法缺乏预约合同的系统规定,有关预约合同的违约责任认定也未在学界与实务界达成一致认同。从适应我国现有法治环境并提出合理法制构建的角度出发,选取“主客观相结合说”为预约合同的理论基础,对预约合同的内涵与预约合同的违约责任进行讨论。在预约合同已约定违约责任的情况下,违约责任的承担方式应当依照合同规定；在没有明确违约责任承担的情况下,法官应当从主观层面和客观层面两个层次进行分析从而明确预约合同的效力进而判定违约责任的承担。     

Adaptive and repeated cumulative meta‐analyses of safety data during a new drug development process

During a new drug development process, it is desirable to timely detect potential safety signals. For this purpose, repeated meta‐analyses may be performed sequentially on accumulating safety data. Moreover, if the amount of safety data from the originally planned program is not enough to ensure adequate power to test a specific hypothesis (e.g., the noninferiority hypothesis of an event of interest), the total sample size may be increased by adding new studies to the program. Without appropriate adjustment, it is well known that the type I error rate will be inflated because of repeated analyses and sample size adjustment. In this paper, we discuss potential issues associated with adaptive and repeated cumulative meta‐analyses of safety data conducted during a drug development process. We consider both frequentist and Bayesian approaches. A new drug development example is used to demonstrate the application of the methods. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Finite-sample Resampling-based Combined Hypothesis Tests,with Applications to Serial Correlation and Predictability

This article suggests Monte Carlo multiple test procedures which are provably valid in finite samples. These include combination methods originally proposed for independent statistics and further improvements which formalize statistical practice. We also adopt the Monte Carlo test method to noncontinuous combined statistics. The methods suggested are applied to test serial dependence and predictability. In particular, we introduce and analyze new procedures that account for endogenous lag selection. A simulation study illustrates the properties of the proposed methods. Results show that concrete and nonspurious power gains (over standard combination methods) can be achieved through the combined Monte Carlo test approach, and confirm arguments in favor of variance-ratio type criteria.     

基于加权案例推理模型族的软件成本SVR组合估算

精确地估算软件成本是软件项目成功开发的一个重要保证,直接影响着软件的风险控制和质量保证.为了更好地解决单一估算模型的不足,提出了集成多案例推理(CBR)模型的软件成本组合估算模型.首先,采用六种距离计算公式刻画新旧项目相似度,构建了六种CBR模型,并运用粒子群算法(PSO)来优化CBR模型族中的属性权重.其次,在CBR模型族的基础上,运用支持向量回归机(SVR)模型将不同CBR模型的估算结果进行集成,提高软件成本估算结果的精度.利用Deshamais数据库对模型有效性进行检验,实证结果表明,在六种CBR模型中Euc-CBR、Min-CBR、Gau-CBR和Mah-CBR模型估算结果没有明显差异,Gre-CBR和Man-CBR模型略优;提出的SVR组合估算模型估算精度明显优于单CBR模型和其他线性组合估算模型,能有效提高软件成本的估算精度.     

老年照护医养结合实证研究

目的:以南京市晨光医院康复护理中心为例,调查研究医生?护士?护工的基本情况?稳定性及入住者满意度,探索二级医院实施医养结合养老模式的可行性?方法:采用深入访谈法?随机抽样调查法,对南京市晨光医院康复护理中心的医护人员?护工及入住者进行问卷调查,对所得数据采用SPSS20.0进行描述性统计分析和t检验?结果:入住者多为高龄老人且患有多种疾病,对医养结合养老模式的总体满意度为95.0%,其中对收费?医生的服务及技术的满意度均高于总体满意度(P < 0.05),医护人员稳定性较好,是医养结合模式得以有效推行的基础和保障;对伙食?护工的满意度低于总体满意度(P < 0.05),护工的稳定性相对较差?结论:医养结合养老模式在二级医院开展具有可行性?政府应着重加强老年健康人才培养及护工队伍建设,确保医养结合养老模式的健康?稳定?快速发展?     

基于组合赋权UM的煤炭企业人员流失风险评价

针对煤炭企业人员流失风险的复杂性和不确定性,建立了基于组合赋权未确知测度(UM)的综合评价模型。在应用AHM-信息熵确定风险评价因素权重的基础上,采用未确知测度方法对煤炭企业内不同职能的人力资源进行分析,评价出风险等级。最后运用实例证明了组合赋权的有效性和评价模型的可靠性,为企业的风险管理提供决策依据。     

Synergy evaluation of non-normalizable dose–response data: Generalization of combination index for the linear effect of drugs

The study of drug synergy plays a prominent role in the search for drug combinations with beneficial interactions. Firstly, in this process, the drug-effect response of individual parts and the mixture needs to be derived. This function is usually well described by Hill (or other logistic or sigmoid) curve. Due to its boundedness, it allows the measured data to be normalized. The normalized data can then be processed by interaction analysis using the Loewe, Bliss, or other models to evaluate possible synergy or antagonism of two or more drugs. However, sometimes, the drug-effect responses observed in pharmaceutical research do not appear to be bounded. Theoretically, the drug-effect curve cannot grow to infinity, but it may be impossible to determine its upper bound within the observed region. In this case, standard models cannot be used, since they assume that data are normalized. The approach of this article bypasses the need to normalize the data, allowing its broader application and usefulness in finding potential synergies in pharmaceutical research.     

从交换观看“文理结合”的逻辑途径

"文理结合"即社会科学和自然科学的知识结合与素质结合,是高等教育提出的理想目标,然而长期以来却难以为之,其根源在于哲学观念滞后。交换哲学观为"文理结合"提供了逻辑上的解决途径。自然科学作为选择能力,社会科学作为交换秩序,必然有机地统一于人们的交换实践,但是分科制客观形成了文理结合的技术壁垒。哲学应该总结各学科的基本原理,打通各学科间的概念对立,统一概念,破除语言上的技术壁垒。在学术体系的整体结构中,哲学处于观念层次地位,文理处于主体层次地位,数学处于基础层次地位。当哲学向下躬亲,总结文理、拥抱数学的时候,才能做到学术体系的义理圆通,"文理结合"才是无碍的。     

Dependency and truncated forms of combinations in multivariate combination-based permutation tests and ordered categorical variables

ABSTRACT

Quite an important problem usually occurs in several multi-dimensional hypotheses testing problems when variables are correlated. In this framework the non-parametric combination (NPC) of a finite number of dependent permutation tests is suitable to cover almost all real situations of practical interest since the dependence relations among partial tests are implicitly captured by the combining procedure itself without the need to specify them [Pesarin F, Salmaso L. Permutation tests for complex data: theory, applications and software. Chichester: Wiley; 2010a]. An open problem related to NPC-based tests is the impact of the dependency structure on combined tests, especially in the presence of categorical variables. This paper’s goal is firstly to investigate the impact of the dependency structure on the possible significance of combined tests in cases of ordered categorical responses using Monte Carlo simulations, then to propose some specific procedures aimed at improving the power of multivariate combination-based permutation tests. The results show that an increasing level of correlation/association among responses negatively affects the power of combination-based multivariate permutation tests. The application of special forms of combination functions based on the truncated product method [Zaykin DV, Zhivotovsky LA, Westfall PH, Weir BS. Truncated product method for combining p-values. Genet Epidemiol. 2002;22:170–185; Dudbridge F, Koeleman BPC. Rank truncated product of p-values, with application to genomewide association scans. Genet Epidemiol. 2003;25:360–366] or on Liptak combination allowed us, using Monte Carlo simulations, to demonstrate the possibility of mitigating the negative effect on power of combination-based multivariate permutation tests produced by an increasing level of correlation/association among responses.