Modeling the demand reduction input-output (I-O) inoperability due to terrorism of interconnected infrastructures.

Interdependency analysis in the context of this article is a process of assessing and managing risks inherent in a system of interconnected entities (e.g., infrastructures or industry sectors). Invoking the principles of input-output (I-O) and decomposition analysis, the article offers a framework for describing how terrorism-induced perturbations can propagate due to interconnectedness. Data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce is utilized to present applications to serve as test beds for the proposed framework. Specifically, a case study estimating the economic impact of airline demand perturbations to national-level U.S. sectors is made possible using I-O matrices. A ranking of the affected sectors according to their vulnerability to perturbations originating from a primary sector (e.g., air transportation) can serve as important input to risk management. For example, limited resources can be prioritized for the "top-n" sectors that are perceived to suffer the greatest economic losses due to terrorism. In addition, regional decomposition via location quotients enables the analysis of local-level terrorism events. The Regional I-O Multiplier System II (RIMS II) Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce is the agency responsible for releasing the regional multipliers for various geographical resolutions (economic areas, states, and counties). A regional-level case study demonstrates a process of estimating the economic impact of transportation-related scenarios on industry sectors within Economic Area 010 (the New York metropolitan region and vicinities).     

Living “Anyway:” Stories of Access

Elana Dykewomon's 1974 novel, Riverfinger Women, was among the first lesbian books with a “happy ending.” Her seven books of fiction and poetry include the Lambda Award winner Beyond the Pale (now an audio and e-book) and Lambda nominee, Risk. She was an editor of the lesbian-feminist journal, Sinister Wisdom, for eight years. Her literary work foregrounds the lesbian heroic as integral to women's communities. As a social justice activist, she has organized and participated in anti-war, anti-racist, anti-classist, fat and disability rights work since the 1970s. She is now working with Old Lesbians Organizing for Change. She is happy to live embedded in dyke community as a lesbian radical committed to a loving justice. While she suffered psychiatric abuse at 13 (and acknowledges long-term adaptive behavior on that account), she has not experienced disabling mental illness since. Her primary disabilities are mobility impairment through severe, progressive arthritis and constant low-to-powerful pain, sometimes diagnosed as fibromyalgia. Her acute illnesses include pancreatitis and a rare-in-adults kidney disease currently in remission.     

考虑恢复依赖的基础设施网络应急恢复决策

在大规模突发事件发生后,基础设施恢复任务之间会形成复杂的依赖关系,本文考虑了在此条件下基础设施系统的恢复设计与调度决策问题。基于网络流理论,以累积恢复效能最大化与成本最小化为目标,构建了涵盖阻塞依赖、选项依赖和效率依赖三类恢复依赖关系的集成恢复设计与调度决策混合整数规划模型,并且设计了求解模型的启发式算法。最后,以长沙市真实基础设施数据集为基础,构造了突发事件后的损毁场景实例,利用模型求解得出了受损基础设施的恢复设计与调度决策方案,并且分析了决策周期长度与工作组数量对累积恢复效能和成本的影响。结果表明：(1)该模型在突发事件后的基础设施恢复决策中具有应用可行性;(2)决策周期长度显著影响累积恢复效能,随着决策周期长度与恢复过程中各组件恢复耗时契合度的提升,累积恢复效能获得有效增长,并且,在决策周期长度的取值范围内,总成本存在最小值;(3)随工作组数量的增加,累积恢复效能呈增长趋势,增长率逐渐减小,同时,总成本呈减少趋势,减少率也逐渐减小。     

Risk Management for Leontief-Based Interdependent Systems

When stricken by a terrorist attack, a war, or a natural disaster, an economic unit or a critical infrastructure may suffer significant loss of productivity. More importantly, due to interdependency or interconnectedness, this initial loss may propagate into other systems and eventually lead to much greater derivative loss. This belongs to what is known as a cascading effect. It is demonstrated in this article that the cascading effect and the derivative loss can be significantly reduced by effective risk management. This is accomplished by deliberately distributing the initial inoperability to other systems so that the total loss (or inoperability) is minimized. The optimal distribution strategy is found by a linear programming technique. The same risk management can also be applied to situations where objectives need to be prioritized. A case study featuring 12 economic sectors illustrates the theory. The result suggests that using the same amount of resources, minimizing risk (inoperability) of infrastructures will generally give rise to highest payoff, whereas overlooking it may result in greatest total loss. The framework developed in this work uses a steady-state approach that applies primarily to managing situations where the attack is catastrophic resulting in very long recovery time.     

论德国的政府间关系

德国的政府间关系呈现为相互依存的合作型模式,它的形成是多种因素作用的结果。在此种模式下,州政府和地方政府参与决策,对联邦政府施加影响;联邦政府也运用财政手段去控制各成员单位,干预州政府和地方政府的事务。德国的政府间关系还体现为州政府与地方政府间的权力关系以及州政府间和地方政府间的横向联系,显现出地方政府自治权力扩大的趋势。德国政府间关系的协调机制保障了政府间的沟通与协作,有效避免和化解了政府间的矛盾冲突,保证了德国社会的和谐发展。     

A Note on Continuous Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Stochastic Processes

We propose a general form to analyze the space-time interdependency of continuous space-time stochastic processes. We present a new space-time approach based on the intensity function of the underlying point process. These formulations can be, to some extent, analytically solved to obtain explicit formulae of interest. We define a general function that controls the space-time interaction and allows for closed forms depending on the particular choice of several mathematical tools playing a role in this interaction function. In particular, we make use of copulas and Laplace transforms to provide interesting examples of the dynamics of the random intensity function and, in turn, of the number of points contained in a given region.     

“安全复合体理论”与东亚安全建构二题

“安全复合体理论”是以区域安全相互依存为基本前提的“安全共同体”。本文依此理论分析新兴的“东亚安全复合体”安全结构及其变化的多层动力,揭示东亚安全区域主义从“弱安全机制”到“强安全机制”,最后走上在区域一体化推动下形成的新的“安全共同体”的发展轨迹。     

We Make the Road by Walking: Challenging Conceptualisations of Leisure Time for Children in Poverty

In this article, we discuss a research project focusing on the ways in which children in poverty spend and experience their leisure time. We argue that the dominant conceptualisation of leisure time participation reduces poverty to a lack of social and cultural capital, marginalising poor children as passive objects of socialisation. Inspired by the interpretative paradigm of lifeworld orientation, three insights are identified throughout poor children's experiences, which include the following: (i) challenging taken‐for‐granted divisions of time; (ii) giving meaning to regimes of time as an ongoing learning process; and (iii) imagining a socially just future.