人口预测的随机方法:基于Leslie矩阵和ARMA模型

本文探讨了人口预测的一种随机方法。文章回顾了经典的Leslie矩阵并结合中国的人口统计数据,用时间序列的ARMA模型对未来的生育率、死亡率进行估计,并由此构造Les-lie矩阵,经时间序列的数据中心化,根据自相关函数、偏自相关函数的截尾性或拖尾性,以及贝叶斯信息准则函数方法对模型定阶,实现对ARMA模型的识别。在中国人口预测方面的应用证明,基于Leslie矩阵和ARMA模型的人口随机预测方法是稳健的,具有很强的适用性。由于统计数据可获得性的局限,对模型做了不少假设和近似。随着人口数据的积累,未来将会在此方面有所改进。

Stochastic Model for Population Forecast:Based on Leslie Matrix and ARMA Model

This paper develops a stochastic model for population forecast with applications to China.Forecasting fertility and mortality with ARMA model creates a Leslie matrix.The classical Leslie matrix is adjusted with Chinese data;and the specific ARMA model is identified through centralization of time-series data,determining the order of model by auto-correlation function,the properties of cut-off or tail-off of partial auto-correlation function,and Bayesian information criterion function.Applications to China's ...