退耕还林工程经济影响结构性分析

当今，国家正处于调整与完善退耕还林后续政策的关键时期。作为国家的一项重大生态工程，退耕还林实施后的经济影响将关系到工程的长期持续发展。本文利用2003年与2005年对陕西、甘肃与四川3个试点省份的跟踪调查数据，通过样本分类，采用实证模型的研究方法分析了退耕还林对不同收入水平、不同收入结构的退耕户所产生的经济影响。研究表明，工程实施6年来，在促进农民总收入增加方面作用甚微，并且在很大程度上降低了农民的种植业收入，但工程却显著地促进了农村劳动力的转移。同时，如果不考虑时间效应，工程并没有瞄准相对贫穷或富裕的农户；如果考虑时间效应，工程对低收入退耕户，特别是以种植业收入为主的低收入退耕户产生了更加不利的影响。因此，国家在后续政策的制定中，应该更加关注这一部分农户的后续生计问题。

Structural Analysis on Economic Impact of Grain for Green Project in China

Producing sound economic impacts is one of the main goals of China’s Grain for Green Project, the world’s largest land set-aside program. It is also the key to ensure sustainability of the program. Using data collected in three pilot provinces-Shaanxi, Gansu and Sichuan in 2003 and 2005, we analyzed impact of the project on participating farmers’ income and income structure. The results indicated that ① Overall, the project didn’t produce significantly positive impact on per capita total income of participants, but led to significantly negative impact on per capita crop income, and significantly positive impact on off-farm labor;　② If leaving out the time effect of land conversion, the project didn’t target particular income groups;　③ If considering the time effect, the project did produce more adverse impact on the low income participants, especially for farmers whose income mainly came from the crop. Therefore, the government should pay special attention to future livelihood of the poor, and design follow-up policies in a way to better address the differences in program impacts.