我国房价波动与货币信贷政策调控研究

通过比较近年来我国房价名义增长率与GDP、居民收入增长率,发现房价增长率的波动明显大于GDP与居民收入增长率,并用HP滤波方法计算出我国的房价波动幅度;认为自2003年以来政府调控房地产的货币信贷政策主要是以调整存款准备金率与利率、调整开发项目资本金比例、限定贷款主体资格、差别化的住房信贷政策为主;认为货币信贷政策本身存在缺陷、地方政府与商业银行执行不力以及我国特殊的房地产业发展环境是制约货币信贷政策调控效果的主要因素,并提出了相应的政策建议以期为政府调控房地产市场提供参考.

Housing Price Fluctuation and Monetary and Credit Policy Macro Control

The paper compared the growth rate of housing prices with growth rate of GDP and resident income and discovered that housing price fluctuation is more volatile than that of GDP and resident income, and worked out the fluctuation range of housing price by HP Filter. It is claimed that the main monetary and credit policies used in the real estate macro control since 2003 are: adjusting the deposit reserve ratio, interest rate and capital ratio of project, restricting the loan qualification and differentiating housing credit policy. There are some factors restricting macro control effect, such as policy defect, poor execution of local government and commercial bank and the peculiar real estate environment. This paper also proposes some policies and suggestions to help government control real estate market.