广州经济发展与水环境的关系

本文利用1981—2008年广州水污染数据，从时序维度实证考察广州水污染与经济增长之间的长期均衡关系和双向动态作用特征，并利用EVIEWS分别构造了两个水污染变量与人均GDP的误差修正模型。结果表明：水污染与经济增长之间存在稳定的协整关系，但短期相互作用不明显；经济增长是水污染的格兰杰原因；经济增长对水污染的方差贡献大于水污染对经济增长的方差贡献，但贡献度很低。

Economic Growth and Water Pollution in Guangzhou

The paper aims at investigating the relationship between economic growth and pollution by adopting the data of water pollution in Guangzhou during a timeframe of 15 years since 1981. It also introduces EVIEWS for two error correction modeling. The results show that： （1）a stable co-integration exists between water pollution and economic growth, although their short-term interactions are too obscure to be observed; （2）economic growth Granger is the cause of water pollution; （3）variance contribution of water pollution to economic growth is greater than that of economic growth to water pollution, however, the degree of contributions remains low.