汶川地震对房地产市场的冲击与政策研究

 本文采用“汶川”地震后震区主要城市的问卷调查数据，检验汶川地震对房地产市场带来的冲击。结果表明，对地震前后购房区域相对固定的人群而言，在自我保险成本可预期的情况下，家庭长短期收入是决定风险规避行为的主要因素，个人风险偏好并不起主要作用，然而当自我保护成本不可完全预期时，不同人群的风险偏好差异便显示出来。性别及家庭特征将影响个体对地震风险厌恶程度，而地震带来的心理上的影响冲击并不决定消费者的理性选择。震后，收入越高的群体更注重房屋质量，高质量房屋的需求会有一定增长。女性、有小孩的家庭以及受损严重市县的消费者将更注重房屋的抗震强度。本文的结果也验证了自我保险与自我保护理论的不同影响因素。

The Shock of Wenchuan Earthquake to Real Estate Market and Policy Research

Based on the survey data collected in the major cities affected by the earthquake,this paper studies the impacts of uncertain events and information on housing consumption. Our results show that under the family budget constraint,home long and short incomes are major determinants of earthquake risk hedging behavior to house buyers. When the self-protect cost can not be exactly anticipated,the Gender and family features are shown to play important roles in determining individuals' degree of aversion to earth...