我国电信业对经济增长的影响及投入要素结构

通过采用索洛增长模型和投入产出表两种分析方法，对我国1979--2009年数据和1997、2002、2007年三个投入产出表进行分析。研究结果显示，全要素生产率（TFP）对我国电信业产出的贡献总体上呈波动上升走势，目前超过40％；当前，电信业自身投入要素结构持续优化、软化，处于全要素生产率的贡献超越资本贡献的窗口期。同时，电信业作为信息要素的基本载体或国民经济的广义技术进步软要素之一，可以替代1／5的资本或劳动硬要素投入，约占了涵盖各行各业及各种技术进步要素在内的广义技术进步要素贡献的1／4。此外印证了电信业存在从中间使用型生产服务业向最终需求型基础产业逐渐演进的迹象、投资乘数较大等观点。

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of China’s Telecommunication Industry on the Economy Growth and the Input Factor Structure

By adopting the Solow growth model and the input-output table method,the empirical analysis based on Chinese data from 1979 to 2009 and three input-output tables(1997,2002,2007) has shown that regarding the telecommunication industry,the contribution rate of the total factor productivity(TFP) which is now more than 40% has generally been increasing with certain fluctuations;currently,the structure of the telecommunication industrial input factors is continuously optimized and softened,and is in the window period of the contribution of TFP surpassing that of the capital input.Meanwhile,as the fundamental carrier for the information element or one kind of soft technology factor,the telecommunication industry may substitute 1/5 of capital or labor inputs,and accounts for approximately 1/4 of the contribution of all of sectors and all kinds of technological progress.Research results also confirm that China’s telecommunication industry gradually evolves from the intermediate-input sector to the final-consumption one,and has a big investment multiplier.