农民工对中国经济的贡献测算

中国的农民工阶层是改革开放以后才出现的。根据公开的统计数据,近年来,农民工流动的规模每年已经超过1亿人。农民工占城市第二、第三产业劳动力的比重很多地方已经超过50%。可以说,农民工已经成为城市第二、第三产业劳动力大军的重要组成部分,农民工对中国国民经济的贡献功不可没。文章利用农业部农村固定观察点的数据,测算了农民工对全国第二、第三产业产值增长的贡献。研究结果表明,1995年至2005年,如果假设农民工劳动生产率与城市产业工人一样,则农民工对中国第二、第三产业产值贡献占到这些产业产值的14.77%~24.35%,平均每年为19.98%;如果假设农民工劳动生产率低于城市产业工人,则农民工对中国第二、第三产业产值贡献占到这些产业产值的1.67%~4.71%,平均每年为3.26%,而且贡献份额有逐年增长的趋势。

Measurement of Migrant Workers' Contributions to China' s Economy

Migrant workers emerged as a class only after 1978 in China. According to statistics, the number of migrant workers exceeds 100m per year in recent years. Migrant workers played an indispensable role in the Chinese economy. This paper takes data from the Ministry of Agriculture, using OLS and MLE to estimate C-D production function and measuring migrant workers' contributions to China's GDP. The results are that, if it is assumed that the productivity of migrant workers is the same as that of city workers, the migrant workers have created 14.77% of production of industry and service sector in 1995, and in 2005, it is 24.35%. On average, it is 19.98% annually. If it is assumed that the productivity of migrant workers is lower than that of city workers, then the share is 1.67% and 4.71% respectively (3.26% annually on average). Besides, the share is on the increase year by year.