投资项目风险的识别与测度

任何投资项目都蕴涵着一定的风险,有效地识别和测度风险有助于最优决策的制定。传统项目评估方法很大程度上忽略了不确定性因素的影响,而不确定性因素是导致风险的重要诱因,故需对传统项目评价中的风险测度方法进行创新。投资项目所面临的风险可分为系统和非系统风险,多层次风险指标体系可形成AHP递阶层次结构,引入定性分析与定量计算有机结合的AHP模型可对投资项目的风险进行有效识别和测度。

Recognistion & Measure of Investment Project Risks

Any investment project takes some risks. It helps make a best decision to recognise & measure such risks effectively. The traditional ways somewhat ignore the influence exerted by uncertainties, which are important inducement for those risks. So the ways of measuring risks in traditional project valuation should be innovated. The investment project risks can be divided into systematic and non-systematic risks. Multilayer risk index system can form an AHP stairs layers structure. The introduction of the AHP model which combines qualitative analysis & quantitive calculation can recognize and measure the investment project risks effectively.