Defence planning: The uncertainty factor

Failures to predict the course of future conflicts are historically even more numerous than failures to predict the weapons with which they would be fought. Defence has to do with a two-sided activity of conflict and confrontation and in that there is a built-in minimum 50 per cent failure rate. Lack of opportunity, for continuous or even frequent comparison of prediction with reality compounds the defence planner's difficulties. Political decisions on defence purport to be derived from military predictions among other factors, but for practical purposes, have to be regarded as a major element of unpredictability in their own right. Bred in this tradition, the defence planner puts a bold front on things, dreams up scenarios, and keeps his fingers crossed. Knowing that, if he has got them wrong, the ships, tanks and aircraft, will come in useful in the conflicts and confrontations ahead.