气候变化对水稻质量安全的影响——基于水稻主产区1 063个农户的调查

气候变暖不仅直接影响粮食产出，还可能通过影响农药化肥的使用数量和使用效果威胁粮食质量安全。基于水稻主产区1 063份农户调查数据，发现其他条件不变，气候变化对水稻影响的感知越强烈，农户增加农药化肥投入的比例就越高，农药化肥施用量平均增加7千克/亩。此外，风险态度、参加农业产业化组织也会对农户的农药化肥使用行为产生重要影响。因此，需要关注气候变化对农产品质量安全的影响，加强对气候变化特别是极端气候明显地区农户农药化肥使用行为的引导，采取多种措施降低气候变化对农业生产的潜在风险，加强农业产业化组织尤其是合作社的建设，在提升数量安全的同时保障质量安全。

The Impact of Climate Change on Quality and Safety of Rice: Based on the Survey of 1 063 Farmers in Main Rice Production Region

Climate change in China， which is characterized by uncertain rainfall and changing weather patterns， poses a major threat to the agricultural systems. Higher temperatures and a greater incidence and intensity of extreme weathers may lead not only to significant yield reduction, but also to an expanding range of crop pests and an increase in the use of agrochemicals, which in turn will impair food quality. It is anticipated that such practice will result in a higher risk of elevated exposures of humans to pesticides via residues in their food. However, the consequences of climate change on food quality and safety have received less attention compared with food security issues. Moreover, few studies in China have related the climate change with the farmers' use of pesticides and fertilizers. In order to find the truth and enhance the governance towards challenges posed by the climate change, the present study takes rice, the staple food of Chinese, as an example for the questionnaire survey of 1 063 farmers in main rice production areas, looking into the impact of climate change on the farmers' use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers both subjectively and objectively. The farmers' decision- making corresponding to climate change is carried out in two- steps: in the first step, the farmers perceive the change in climate; in the second, they take actions to it. So ″perception of climate change″ is used as the measurable indicator of the influence of climate change on farmers. With other factors unchanged, the result shows that the core variable″perception of climate change″ of the farmers has a significant effect on the claim of increase the amount of pesticides and fertilizers in order to mitigate the potential losses. Actually, it is found that the farmers who are more aware of the climate change may use 7 kilograms more pesticides and fertilizers per mu land. In addition, their risk attitudes and their membership in some agricultural industrialization organizations also greatly affect farmers' pesticides and fertilizers use. Based on the above findings, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to cope with the challenges posed by climate change: (1) More attention should be paid to the impact of climate change on the quality and safety of agricultural products. (2) More guidance should be given on pesticides and fertilizers use of the farmers who are significantly affected by climate change. (3) Various measures should be taken to reduce the potential yield risks caused by climate change on the farmers. (4) The agricultural industrialization should be reinforced, especially the cooperatives that guarantee the quality and safety at the mean time.