西北地区能源消费、经济增长与碳排放的关系研究

能源消费、碳排放与经济增长之间的关系研究对实施节能减排、发展低碳经济具有至关重要的意义。该文基于西北五省统计年鉴数据,测算了1992—2011年煤炭、石油、天然气三种能源的碳排放量,并从近似关系和脱钩关系两个角度刻画了能源消费、碳排放量与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明:1992—2011年,西北地区碳排放总量及煤炭、石油、天然气引起的碳排放量总体呈上升趋势,碳排放主要来自于煤炭消费;西北地区能源消费总量与碳排放总量的变动趋势近似,能源强度与碳排放强度的变动趋势近似;碳排放与经济增长的脱钩弹性指数类型、能源消费与经济增长的脱钩弹性指数类型表现基本上一致,且在大部分年份指向弱脱钩状态,未来一定时期内弱脱钩发展趋势可能仍将持续。

Relationship between Energy Consumption,Economic Growth and Carbon Emission in Northwest China

The study of relationship between energy consumption, carbon emission and economic growth has a vital significance on the implementation of energy conservation, emission and the development of low carbon economy. Based on statistical data of recent years, this paper estimates the carbon emission of coal, oil and natural gas of the five provinces in Northwest China from 1992 to 2011, and proclaims the relationship among energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth from two angles of approximation relation and decoupling relation. The results show that from 1992 to 2011, the total carbon emission and carbon emissions caused by coal, oil and gas in Northwest China rises and the carbon emission mainly comes from coal consumption; the total energy consumption and carbon emission, as well as the intensities of energy and carbon emission have a similar changing trend; In addition, there exists a consistency in decoupling elastic index between carbon emission and economic growth, between energy consumption and economic growth, and the trend points to weak decoupling in most years and may remain like this in the future.