基于VAR模型的制造业与物流业联动发展——以广东省为例

制造业与物流业具有较高的产业关联度,两者联动发展对于促进经济发展方式转变、推动国民经济平稳较快发展具有重要意义。对1993-2010年的数据进行VAR模型和协整检验得出,广东省制造业和物流业的发展存在单向协整关系,即前者有效促进了后者的发展,但后者对前者的拉动作用未能很好体现。应从优化区域布局促进现代物流业快速发展,搭建信息交流平台和制定财税优惠政策,促进两者联动发展。

Joint Development between Manufacturing Industry and Logistics Industry Based on VAR Model -- A case Study of Guangdong Province

There is a high degree of industrial linkage between manufacturing industry and logistics industry, and the joint development between them is significant to promote the transformation of economic growth mode, and stable and rapid development of national economy as well. Based on VAR model and cointegration test of 1993-2010 data in Guangdong Province,it is concluded that there exists unidirectional cointegration relationship between the development of manufacturing industry and logistics industry, namely, the former effectively promotes the latter, while the latter does not have the pulling effect on the former. To promote the rapid development of modem logistics industry needs settling. To encourage joint development between logistics industry and manufacturing industry, it is necessary to optimize area layout, to set up the information exchange platform and to make preferential policy on tax.