低利率环境对股票市场的影响机制及实证研究

近年来,全球各国纷纷实行了低利率政策,该政策有可能演变为"危险的暗流",对股票市场乃至经济社会发展形成一定冲击。该文首先介绍了全球各国低利率环境的发展现状,然后运用定价模型对低利率环境对股票市场的影响机制进行理论推导,并且使用欧洲25个国家的面板数据,运用系统GMM模型和固定效应模型进行实证检验。实证结果表明,利率与股票价格之间呈现出负相关的关系,即利率的方向发生变化,股票价格的涨跌就有可能发生相反方向的变化。最后,根据实证研究的结论和我国的发展现状,提出了一些政策建议。

An Empirical Study on the Influence Mechanism of Low Interest Rate Environment on Capital Market

In recent years, countries all over the world have implemented the policy of low policy interest rate, which is likely to evolve into a "dangerous undercurrent", which has a certain impact on the capital market and even the economic and social development. This paper first introduces the development status of low interest rate environment in the world, and then employs the pricing model to theoretically deduce the impact mechanism of the low interest rate environment on the stock market. Besides, the panel data of 25 European countries are adopted to conduct an empirical test via System GMM model and fixed effect model. The empirical results show that there is a negative correlation between interest rate and stock price, that is, if the direction of interest rate changes, the rise and fall of stock price may change in the opposite direction. Finally, according to the conclusion of the empirical study and the development status of China, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions.