知识失业问题的总量性原因实证分析

近几年,知识失业成为社会广泛关注的社会问题之一,已有的研究往往将其归于结构性原因和大学生的就业期望值问题,忽视对于总量性原因的分析。知识失业的原因是多方面的,确有总量性原因在起作用。劳动力总量过大和劳动力素质提高是其一般总量性诱因,因资本深化和经济转型造成的大学生传统就业岗位的减少是其需求总量性原因,而高等教育规模过大及增速过快是其供给总量性原因,很多人不顾我国现有的经济水平、产业结构和就业结构,单纯和高等教育发达国家比较高等教育发展指标是极其片面和危险的,我们应该合理规划高等教育发展规模及速度,促进高等教育的可持续发展及其与社会的协调发展。

Empirical Analysis on the Quantitative Reasons of Educated Unemployment

In recent years,more and more people have paid more attention to the social problem of educated unemployment.But many scholars ascribe the problem to the misstructure of higher education and the social demands of labor market and the excessive expectation of graduates.The main causes of educated unemployment are quantitative reasons as followed: the supply surpasses the demand of educated labor,short supply of traditional job for the graduates comes from the capital deepening and the economic transformation,the big number and the rapidly increase of educated labor.It is very unilateral and dangerous to compare the educational index with developed countries simply in disregards of the economic development level,industrial structure and employment structure.Therefore,the scale and development speed of higher education should planned rationally in order to improve the higher education development healthily and substantially,which increase the harmony of education with society.